Quantifying differences between reservoir inflows and dam site floods using frequency and risk analysis methods

Reservoirs are the most important constructions for water resources management and flood control. Great concern has been paid to the effects of reservoir on downstream area and the differences between inflows and dam site floods due to the changes of upstream flow generation and concentration conditions after reservoir’s impoundment. These differences result in inconsistency between inflow quantiles and the reservoir design criteria derived by dam site flood series, which can be a potential risk and must be quantificationally evaluated. In this study, flood frequency analysis (FFA) and flood control risk analysis (FCRA) methods are used with the long reservoir inflow series derived from a multiple inputs and single output model and a copula-based inflow estimation model. The results of FFA and FCRA are compared and the influences on reservoir flood management are also discussed. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. Results show that the differences between the TGR inflow and dam site floods are significant which result in changes on its flood control risk rates. The mean values of TGR’s annual maximum inflow peak discharge and 3 days flood volume have increased 5.58 and 3.85% than the dam site ones, while declined by 1.82 and 1.72% for the annual maximum 7 and 15 days flood volumes. The flood control risk rates of middle and small flood events are increased while extreme flood events are declined. It is shown that the TGR can satisfy the flood control task under current hydrologic regime and the results can offer references for better management of the TGR.     

Three-dimensional forward modeling of DC resistivity using the aggregation-based algebraic multigrid method

To speed up three-dimensional (3D) DC resistivity modeling, we present a new multigrid method, the aggregation-based algebraic multigrid method (AGMG). We first discretize the differential equation of the secondary potential field with mixed boundary conditions by using a seven-point finite-difference method to obtain a large sparse system of linear equations. Then, we introduce the theory behind the pairwise aggregation algorithms for AGMG and use the conjugate-gradient method with the V-cycle AGMG preconditioner (AGMG-CG) to solve the linear equations. We use typical geoelectrical models to test the proposed AGMG-CG method and compare the results with analytical solutions and the 3DDCXH algorithm for 3D DC modeling (3DDCXH). In addition, we apply the AGMG-CG method to different grid sizes and geoelectrical models and compare it to different iterative methods, such as ILU-BICGSTAB, ILU-GCR, and SSOR-CG. The AGMG-CG method yields nearly linearly decreasing errors, whereas the number of iterations increases slowly with increasing grid size. The AGMG-CG method is precise and converges fast, and thus can improve the computational efficiency in forward modeling of three-dimensional DC resistivity.     

打桩振动环境效应的有限元-无限元耦合分析

把打桩引起的近场波动的数值模拟问题归结为层状半无限弹性体系的动力响应问题,采用有限元与无限元的耦合模型对该问题进行数值模拟,最后对整体模型时空离散,用Ｃ语言编制计算机程序,利用该程序对上海某高层办公楼进行实例计算,并与实测结果进行比较分析,表明该方法是可行的,可为打桩施工的安全作业提供依据。     

逻辑回归和信息量模型在山区滑坡易发性评价中适宜性的分析

以万山区为例,在区域滑坡孕灾条件的基础上,筛选工程地质岩组、斜坡结构、平均坡度、地貌、距构造距离及距河流距离共6个易发条件因子,选取逻辑回归模型和信息量模型对山区滑坡进行易发性评价。结果显示逻辑回归模型中中高易发区面积占比分别为1578%和1970%,82%的地质灾害点落在该区域内;信息量模型中中高易发区面积占比为1241%、2519%,包含了区域88%的滑坡灾害点。最后通过实际发生的灾害点在各易发区的分布情况进行检验,逻辑回归模型中灾害点落在高易发区的比例远小于信息量模型,且高易发等级中灾害点实际发生的比值较小,说明针对山区区域滑坡地质灾害易发性评价结果预测上,信息量模型的评价结果更为客观准确。     

Micro-XANES mapping of sulphur and its association with magnesium and phosphorus in the shell of the brachiopod, Terebratulina retusa

Biominerals are natural composite materials comprising organic and inorganic components. Detailed knowledge of the nature and distribution of both components is a crucial requirement in order to advance our understanding of biomineral formation, their material properties and preservation potential as well as the interpretation of environmental data. Detailed chemical data are essential for our understanding of the nature and distribution of such components. Micro-XANES mapping at the sulphur K-edge reveals that, in the brachiopod Terebratulina retusa, the sulphate concentration is higher in the outer (primary) layer than in the calcite fibres of the secondary layer. This is co-incident with a higher magnesium concentration. In contrast, the sheaths surrounding the calcite fibres contain sulphur as thiol, confirming the presence of protein while, the sulphur within the fibres themselves, occurs as sulphate. Micro-XANES analysis of the insoluble organic extract from T. retusa indicates the presence of organic sulphate while Micro-Raman spectroscopy confirms that structurally substituted sulphate (SSS) is also present although semi-quantitative Raman spectroscopy carried out in this spectral region (wavenumbers 900–1200) indicates that the sulphate present is at the threshold of detection by Raman spectroscopy. The distribution of phosphorus in the shell of T. retusa correlates well with that of protein indicating the presence of phosphorylated proteins in the periostracum, the sheaths surrounding the calcite fibres and the interface between the primary and secondary layer.     

Characteristics of coseismic water level changes at Tangshan well for the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake and its larger aftershocks

Coseismic water level changes which may have been induced by the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake and its 15 larger aftershocks (M_S≥?5.4) have been observed at Tangshan well. We analyze the correlation between coseismic parameters (maximum amplitude, duration, coseismic step and the time when the coseismic reach its maximum amplitude) and earthquake parameters (magnitude, well-epicenter distance and depth), and then compare the time when the coseismic oscillation reaches its maximum amplitude with the seismogram from Douhe seismic station which is about 16.3 km away from Tangshan well. The analysis indicates that magnitude is the main factor influencing the induced coseismic water level changes, and that the well-epicenter distance and depth have less influence. M_S magnitude has the strongest correlation with the coseismic water level changes comparing to M_W and M_L magnitudes. There exists strong correlation between the maximum amplitude, step size and the oscillation duration. The water level oscillation and step are both caused by dynamic strain sourcing from seismic waves. Most of the times when the oscillations reach their maximum amplitudes are between S and Rayleigh waves. The coseismic water level changes are due to the co-effect of seismic waves and hydro-geological environments.     

盾构隧道局部长期渗水对隧道变形及地表沉降的影响分析

研究表明,盾构隧道长期渗水会造成地表及隧道严重沉降。针对盾构隧道局部渗流难以模拟的现状,首先提出了一种既符合盾构隧道刚度要求又能实现局部接头渗水的计算方法;在稳定渗流状态对应的相同渗流量的前提下,对比分析了管片在不同接头渗水条件下隧道周围土体孔压分布、地表和隧道沉降以及隧道变形规律。分析结果表明,盾构隧道渗水接头的位置不同,孔压分布、地表和隧道沉降以及隧道的变形均有明显差异;接头位置越靠近隧道底部,渗水导致的孔压减小越显著,造成的地表及隧道沉降越显著。接头渗水不但会使隧道发生横向椭圆化变形,还会引起隧道左右两侧受力不平衡,从而造成隧道水平侧移。通过对比表明,采用接头渗水和传统的衬砌均质渗水得到的孔压分布、沉降及隧道变形规律均有显著不同;不考虑隧道局部渗水特点会对隧道结构长期性态的认识产生偏差。     

上海热浪与健康监测预警系统

用1989～1998年上海逐日4次气象观测资料,应用美国特拉华大学的SSC天气分类方法确定逐日天气类型,形成了10年逐日天气类型日历。并通过天气类型与死亡率的对比分析,确定MT+类型是上海地区形成热浪的“侵人型”气团,是具有最高死亡率的天气类型。采用逐步回归方法建立了MT+类型下因受热浪侵袭而超正常死亡数的回归方程。在此基础上建立了上海热浪与健康监测预警系统。通过1999年气象和死亡实况资料检验,系统对热浪及因此引起的死亡具有较好的监测和预警效果。     

规划建设对深圳夏季城市热岛影响的数值模拟研究

以区域边界层模式RBLM为工具,研究了城市规划建设对深圳夏季城市热岛的影响。分别模拟了当前的城市热岛、高密度建设和能耗增加后的城市热岛、以及布设通风走廊后的城市热岛,得到了以下结论:(1)深圳夏季存在城市热岛现象,且昼间热岛比夜间更为明显,高温中心集中在建设密度较高的南山、福田、罗湖和宝安西部等区;(2)建设密度加大及能源消费增加会导致深圳夏季近地面气温出现大面积的升高,并且夜间升温比昼间更为明显;(3)通风走廊的设置可以在一定程度上抵消高密度建设和能耗增加带来的负面效应。     

年尺度地震预测模型的国际研究现状

对未来1年内发生强震的预测在做好备灾应急准备和防震减灾工作上具有重要的现实需求.为反映近年来国际上关于1年尺度地震预测模型研究的进展,本文系统地整理了地震的统计概率预测模型、物理预测模型和混合预测模型,并从方法原理、预测效能评价、部署应用等角度进行了梳理.研究表明,目前国际上发展的1年尺度地震预测模型及其效能评价使用的参考模型的总体数量较少、建模原理主要基于G-R关系等统计学基本定律,显示该领域在基础理论架构、关键技术体系上并未足够成熟,这可能与相应的地震发生机理解释尚不完善、建立数理化的预测模型尚有困难等因素有关.