Groundwater head uncertainty analysis in unsteady-state water flow models using the interval and perturbation methods

In the numerical simulation of groundwater flow, uncertainties often affect the precision of the simulation results. Stochastic and statistical approaches such as the Monte Carlo method, the Neumann expansion method and the Taylor series expansion, are commonly employed to estimate uncertainty in the final output. Based on the first-order interval perturbation method, a combination of the interval and perturbation methods is proposed as a viable alternative and compared to the well-known equal interval continuous sampling method (EICSM). The approach was realized using the GFModel (an unsaturated-saturated groundwater flow simulation model) program. This study exemplifies scenarios of three distinct interval parameters, namely, the hydraulic conductivities of six equal parts of the aquifer, their boundary head conditions, and several hydrogeological parameters (e.g. specific storativity and extraction rate of wells). The results show that the relative errors of deviation of the groundwater head extremums (RDGE) in the late stage of simulation are controlled within approximately ±5% when the changing rate of the hydrogeological parameter is no more than 0.2. From the viewpoint of the groundwater head extremums, the relative errors can be controlled within ±1.5%. The relative errors of the groundwater head variation are within approximately ±5% when the changing rate is no more than 0.2. The proposed method of this study is applicable to unsteady-state confined water flow systems.

     

二叠系火山碎屑岩气藏天然气地球化学特征及气源分析——以四川盆地成都—简阳地区永探1井为例

2018年12月底,在四川盆地二叠系火山岩发育地区部署的风险探井永探1井测试获得22.5万m³/d的高产工业气流,实现了二叠系火山碎屑岩的重大勘探突破,展现了火山碎屑岩气藏的巨大勘探潜力。本文根据该钻井成果资料,应用分析化验数据,采用不同地区气-气对比方法,开展了成都—简阳地区天然气地球化学特征分析、源-储接触关系解剖及气源综合对比。在此基础上,对二叠系火山碎屑岩气藏天然气成因进行了鉴别,对天然气来源进行了判识。结果表明：永探1井火山岩气藏天然气均为典型的干气,干燥系数达0.997,CH₄质量分数高,平均为99.03%,C₂H₆质量分数低,平均为0.35%,C₃H₈几乎没有,不含H₂S;天然气甲烷、乙烷碳同位素值均较轻,甲烷碳同位素平均值为-32.17‰,乙烷碳同位素平均值为-34.27‰,且岩心及镜下可见大量残余沥青,天然气成因鉴别分析表明永探1井火山岩气藏天然气为原油二次裂解气;通过源-储接触关系解剖以及天然气甲烷、乙烷碳同位素对比分析,表明永探1井火山碎屑岩气藏天然气主要来源于德阳—安岳台内裂陷内发育的巨厚下寒武统筇竹寺组优质烃源岩,部分来源于中二叠统。     

贵州兴义雄武背斜菁角地区龙潭组含铀砂岩地球化学特征及其意义

菁角地处于兴义市雄武背斜核部南东翼南西段,大地构造位置位于扬子板块与华南板块的结合部.前人主要对该地区的金矿进行了矿点地质特征、构造特征、矿体形态等方面的研究,但对岩石学特征、铀的赋存形式以及地球化学特征研究较少.本次研究利用TIMA扫面、显微镜下观察、地球化学分析等方法对矿石、围岩的岩石学特征、地球化学特征、风化作用和分选、源区岩石类型、铀的赋存形式等方面进行探究.TIMA扫面以及显微镜下观察的结果表明铀的赋存形式是以弥散状充填进黏土化(高岭石)裂隙中.菁脚地区地球化学分析显示,龙潭组砂岩中w(SiO2)为51.30％～91.55％,围岩主要类型为亚岩屑砂岩,矿石以及矿化岩石为岩屑砂屑岩,CIA(73.83～82.53)以及ICV指数表明矿石及矿化岩石较围岩成熟度高、风化程度强.测试样品均有较强的U正异常,含量为4.78～772.00×10-6,且U与∑REE,Sb元素呈现明显正相关,Zr与∑REE呈强的正相关(R=1).菁角地区铀的来源是热液在上升过程中萃取围岩中的铀,沿着层间构造破碎带充填进成熟度较高的黑色砂岩中富集而成,结合菁角地区岩石学特征、地球化学特征以及铀的赋存形式,推测菁脚金(铀)矿床为低温热液矿床.     

未来东北地区农业气候资源的时空演变特征

研究采用NorESM1-M模式输出的气候情景资料驱动农业生态区模型,分析了21世纪中期在RCP 2.6和RCP8.5典型浓度路径下的东北区域气候资源变化。研究表明:在RCP2.6、RCP8.5两种气候变化情景下,东北区域年平均气温呈现升高趋势,≥10℃积温所反映的热量条件得到显著改善,以黑龙江省和辽中南积温的增加最为明显;受气温升高影响,2050s参考作物蒸散普遍增加。区域内降水总量略有增加,东北西部干旱地区状况略有改善,东部地区更加湿润;趋于暖湿的气候促使作物生长季延长,到21世纪中期,全区最长增加12.4天。     

Properties and organic activation of ocean clay in the East Pacific

In order to make use of ocean clay reasonably and excavate its potential applications the properties of ocean clay in Chinese investigating area of the East Pacific have been tested with the chemical analysis, XRFS, ICP/MAS, granulometry and SSA, etc. The results show that the clay sediments of this area are rich in clay minerals, fine granularity, bigger SSA, bigger water absorbability and lower ion changing ability etc. To improve the adaptability of ocean clay and macromolecule materials, using the dry milling method with silane, aluminate, stearic acid coupling agents etc the properties of ocean clay are improved. The effect has been evaluated by testing the water absorbing of the modified ocean clay and their dispersing in paraffin liquid. The result is that KH550 is better than any other active reagents, and the best activation technics is that 1.5% (volume) of KH550 quantity, 20min of milling time. The DTA, XRD, SEM and IR analyses and SSA testing show that the organic activation can not change the mineral structure but can densify the structure of clay, and activation mechanism is chemical covered mainly and chemical combined secondly.     

21世纪中国主要粮食产区的空间格局特征

Grain production is an important issue for the national economy and the livelihood of the Chinese people. It serves as the foundation of national development and social stability. China is a major grain producer as well as a major grain consumer. The grai…     

Characteristics of carbonaceous particles in Beijing during winter and summer 2003

Campaigns were conducted to measure Organic Carbon (OC) and Elemental Carbon (EC) in PM2.5 during winter and summer 2003 in Beijing. Modest differences of PM2.5 and PM10 mean concentrations were observed between the winter and summer campaigns. The mean PM2.5/PM10 ratio in both seasons was around 60%, indicating PM2.5 contributed significantly to PM10. The mean concentrations of OC and EC in PM2.5 were 11.2±7.5 and 6.0±5.0μg m-3 for the winter campaign, and 9.4±2.1 and 4.3±3.0 μg m-3 for the summer campaign, respectively. Diurnal concentrations of OC and EC in PM2.5 were found high at night and low during the daytime in winter, and characterized by an obvious minimum in the summer afternoon. The mean OC/EC ratio was 1.87±0.09 for winter and Z39±0.49 for summer. The higher OC/EC ratio in summer indicates some formation of Secondary Organic Carbon (SOC). The estimated SOC was 2.8 μg m-3 for winter and 4.2μg m-3 for summer.     

基于耦合场分割算法的ANSYS二次开发及其应用

耦合场分割算法是当前研究的热点之一。本文首先对比研究了瞬态热传导方程和孔压增长消散方程,提出了一种适用于ANSYS二次开发的分割算法,并对2种不同的预测值计算模式对计算稳定性的影响进行了分析。然后,据之对ANSYS温度—结构耦合场模块进行了开发,形成了岩土工程有效应力计算模块。数值实验表明,这种方法具有较高的计算精度和良好的计算稳定性,并且能够充分利用现有程序资源,具有较高的工程应用价值。     

消能减震高层方钢管混凝土框架结构振动台试验研究和弹塑性时程分析

本文首先介绍了一幢安装了粘滞阻尼器的复杂体型高层方钢管混凝土框架结构的1/15缩尺模型的模拟地震振动台试验结果;在此基础上,建立了梁、柱构件的多弹簧模型并组建了整体结构的计算分析模型,运用此计算模型首先对试验模型结构进行了动力弹塑性时程分析,计算结果和试验结果吻合较好,验证了计算模型的正确性;最后,以同样方法对原型结构进行了计算分析,并结合试验结果研究探讨了此结构的抗震性能和阻尼器的消能减震效果。结果表明:该结构未出现明显的薄弱层,能够满足规范的抗震设防要求,阻尼器发挥了一定的消能减震效果,进一步提高了结构的抗震性能。     

基于ANSYS软件benchmark模型耗能减振控制分析

本文系统介绍了当前国际结构振动控制的公共平台———Benchm ark模型,首次给出使用通用有限元软件ANSYS对第3阶段20层非线性钢框架抗震结构的有限元建模,结果表明,模态、无控地震反应分析结果和ASCE给出的MATLAB结果相同。利用粘滞阻尼器对此模型的耗能减振数值仿真分析的结果表明:粘滞阻尼器是一种性能很好的阻尼器,使用本文给出ANSYS的Benchm ark有限元模型来进行耗能减振控制分析是方便的、可行的。