On the bogussing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: A comparison of vortex profiles

Summary At the resolutions currently in use, and with the sparse oceanic data coverage, numerical analyses cannot adequately represent tropical cyclone circulations for use in numerical weather prediction models. In many cases there is no circulation present at all. Most numerical weather prediction centers therefore employ a bogussing scheme to force a tropical cyclone vortex into the numerical analysis. The standard procedure is to define a synthetic data distribution based on an analytically prescribed vortex, which is passed to the analysis scheme as a set of high quality observations.In this study, four commonly used bogus vortices are examined by comparing resultant forecast tracks in an environment at rest, and in a background flow that simulates a typical monsoon trough-subtropical ridge structure. There are three main findings, each of which has significance for operational tropical cyclone track prediction. First, great care is needed in the choice of the characteristics of the bogus vortex, such as the radius and magnitude of the maximum wind. Second, the tropical cyclone trajectories can be very sensitive to their initial position in the idealised environment. Third, the bogus vortex can substantially influence the environment, especially over longer time periods and for vortices of larger size.With 9 Figures     

Scale interaction in the Western Pacific Monsoon

Summary The lower-tropospheric scale interactions occurring in the summer monsoon of the western North Pacific are reviewed and summarised in a conceptual model. Diabatic heating produces a circulation with similar characteristics to those that are observed. In the lower troposphere the advection of vorticity by the divergent wind produces a compact, and more intense response than in the upper levels. Subsequent phase dispersion westward, and group propagation eastwards, lead to a monsoon depression in convectively suppressed conditions, a westerly jet with cross-equatorial flow, and a strong confluence region to the east of the monsoon depression.I suggest that this confluence zone traps tropical waves in the mid-lower troposphere in a similar manner to the accumulation and emanation mechanisms described by Chang and Webster. The details of the convection in the confluence zone are of little direct consequence to the monsoon circulation, which is similar in scale to the deformation radius for the undisturbed tropics. However, mesoscale convective systems can both self organise into larger coherent structures and produce vortices of horizontal scale 100–200 km, which are long-lived and potentially have considerable indirect influence on both the monsoon and embedded systems, such as tropical cyclones. The confluence zone provides an excellent environment for tropical cyclone formation, which is enhanced by the presence of a previously developed tropical cyclone. Scale-interaction arising from the merger of developing vortices and the large monsoon depression can lead to development of a very large typhoon and rapid breakdown of the total monsoon circulation. The interaction of tropical cyclones with the mid-latitude systems is complex and not well understood, but recurving tropical cyclones may provide a major component of the emanation of energy to higher latitudes.With 16 Figures     

Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land use,climate or CO2?

Encroachment of trees and shrubs into grasslands and the thicketization of savannas has occurred worldwide over the past century. These changes in vegetation structure are potentially relevant to climatic change as they may be indicative of historical shifts in climate and as they may influence biophysical aspects of land surface-atmosphere interactions and alter carbon and nitrogen cycles. Traditional explanations offered to account for the historic displacement of grasses by woody plants in many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have centered around changes in climatic, livestock grazing and fire regimes. More recently, it has been suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since the industrial revolution has been the driving force. In this paper we evaluate the CO₂ enrichment hypotheses and argue that historic, positive correlations between woody plant expansion and atmospheric CO₂ are not cause and effect.Please direct all correspondence to the senior author.     

Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface temperatures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for?>?100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism maintains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simulations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to volcanic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater column, wind, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic during the eruptions.     

The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models

Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions.     

Product study of the reaction of OH radicals with isoprene in the atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR

Atmospheric oxidation of isoprene and its oxidation products methacrolein (MACR) and methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) have an important impact on the photochemical activity in the boundary layer, in particular in forested areas. The oxidation of isoprene by OH radicals was investigated in chamber experiments conducted under tropospheric conditions in the atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR at the Research Center Jülich. The aim was to determine the product yield of MVK and MACR in the OH-induced isoprene oxidation and the rate constant of their reaction with OH under real atmospheric conditions. The recently published updated degradation scheme for isoprene from Geiger et al. (2003) was used to determine rate constants and product yields. The fractional yields in the isoprene peroxy radical reaction with NO were found to be 0.41±0.03 for MVK and 0.27±0.03 for MACR. The rate coefficient for MACR with OH was found to be in very good agreement with the recommended value of IUPAC Atkinson (Atkinson et al., 2005). while the rate coefficient for MVK with OH was 27% lower.     

A review of the physics and ecological implications of the thermal bar circulation

Following recent applications of numerical modelling and remote sensing to the thermal bar phenomenon, this paper seeks to review the current state of knowledge on the effect of its circulation on lacustrine plankton ecosystems. After summarising the literature on thermal bar hydrodynamics, a thorough review is made of all plankton observations taken in the presence of a thermal bar. Two distinct plankton growth regimes are found, one with production favoured throughout the inshore region and another with a maximum in plankton biomass near the position of the thermal bar. Possible explanations for the observed distributions are then discussed, with reference to numerical modelling studies, and the scope for future study of this interdisciplinary topic is outlined.     

A field study of coastal dynamics on a muddy coast offshore of Cassino beach,Brazil

Mud deposits near sandy beaches, found throughout the world, are of scientific and societal interest as they form important natural sea defenses by efficiently damping storm waves. A multi-national field experiment to study these phenomena was performed offshore Cassino beach in southern Brazil starting in 2004. This experiment aimed to investigate the formation of an offshore mud deposit, to characterize wave attenuation over potentially mobile muddy bottoms, and to evaluate the performance of models for wave transformation over heterogeneous beds through the measurement of water waves, near-bottom currents, bathymetry, and changes in bottom sediment characteristics. The main instrumentation was a set of wave sensors deployed in a transect from the shoreline across sandy and muddy deposits offshore to a depth of 25 m. Additional sensors, including current meters and optical backscatter sensors, were concentrated at stations in the middle of the mud deposit and in the surf zone to document aspects of the wave boundary layer and lutocline dynamics. This fieldwork also involved the geological and geotechnical characterization of the mud deposit using seismic equipment, echo-sounders, cores, surficial sampling and an in-situ density meter. These sediment samples were subsequently analyzed for density, grain size distribution, mineralogy, rheology and sedimentary structures. In addition, video and radar monitoring equipment were installed to measure the long-term aspects of surf zone damping by fluid mud and any associated morphodynamic responses. This paper provides a summary of environmental conditions monitored during the experiment and describes the major findings of the various investigations. Although data collection was more difficult than anticipated and dramatic wave attenuation involving the onshore transport of fluid mud into the surf zone region was not observed during the instrumented interval, the new methodologies developed and comprehensive observations obtained during this effort are being used to improve our understanding of shoaling wave dynamics and sediment transport in the coastal zone in regions with significant cohesive sediment deposits.     

Phase relations of osumilite and dehydration melting in pelitic rocks: a simple thermodynamic model for the KFMASH system

 Thermodynamic modelling of (1) osumilite solid solutions and (2) dehydration melting in pelitic compositions within the KFMASH system is quite successful in reproducing the invariant and univariant reactions determined in experimental studies. Even though rather preliminary, such melt thermodynamic models may be very useful in interpolating and extrapolating the limited information available from a small number of experimental runs. These methods allow the compositions of all phases to be monitored as a function of pressure, temperature and equilibrium phase assemblage for any desired bulk composition. Locating the higher variance phase fields (e.g. quadrivariant, quinivariant) is often difficult or impossible by inspection, but is made relatively easy using thermodynamic software such as thermocalc. In the KFMASH system the calculated partition of Fe and Mg between osumilite, garnet, cordierite, orthopyroxene and biotite are shown to be in good agreement with experimental and natural data and allow reliable calculation of mineral compositions coexisting with quartz-saturated and H₂O-undersaturated melts for a variety of bulk compositions. These phase diagram calculations allow quite tight limits to be placed on the pressure, temperature and water activity conditions which accompanied metamorphism of natural osumilite occurrences in Nain, Namaqualand, and Rogaland. At fixed bulk composition, the initial melting of pelites by dehydration of biotite can occur via univariant, divariant or trivariant equilibria depending upon pressure of metamorphism. Of particular interest is that, for low pressures or more magnesian bulk compositions, fluid-absent melting begins by generating liquid from the high-variance assemblage biotite+cordierite+K-feldspar+ quartz. This type of modelling allows investigation, at least qualitatively, of the fine scale details of melt production as a function of changes in pressure, temperature and bulk composition. Received: 29 November 1995 / Accepted: 22 April 1996     

Stratigraphic Model Predictions of Geoacoustic Properties

Geoacoustic properties of the seabed have a controlling role in the propagation and reverberation of sound in shallow-water environments. Several techniques are available to quantify the important properties but are usually unable to adequately sample the region of interest. In this paper, we explore the potential for obtaining geotechnical properties from a process-based stratigraphic model. Grain-size predictions from the stratigraphic model are combined with two acoustic models to estimate sound speed with distance across the New Jersey continental shelf and with depth below the seabed. Model predictions are compared to two independent sets of data: 1) Surficial sound speeds obtained through direct measurement using in situ compressional wave probes, and 2) sound speed as a function of depth obtained through inversion of seabed reflection measurements. In water depths less than 100 m, the model predictions produce a trend of decreasing grain-size and sound speed with increasing water depth as similarly observed in the measured surficial data. In water depths between 100 and 130 m, the model predictions exhibit an increase in sound speed that was not observed in the measured surficial data. A closer comparison indicates that the grain-sizes predicted for the surficial sediments are generally too small producing sound speeds that are too slow. The predicted sound speeds also tend to be too slow for sediments 0.5-20 m below the seabed in water depths greater than 100 m. However, in water depths less than 100 m, the sound speeds between 0.5-20-m subbottom depth are generally too fast. There are several reasons for the discrepancies including the stratigraphic model was limited to two dimensions, the model was unable to simulate biologic processes responsible for the high sound-speed shell material common in the model area, and incomplete geological records necessary to accurately predict grain-size