Meteorologically consistent bias correction of climate time series for agricultural models

Conventional bias correction of simulated climate time series for impact models is done separately for climate variables and hence leads to inconsistencies between them. However, agricultural models mostly use several variables, and meteorological consistency is essential. The present work points out meteorological inconsistency due to quantile mapping and describes a new method of consistent bias correction by an optimization approach. Time series of hourly precipitation and global radiation from the regional model REMO5.7 (Run UBA C20/A1B_1) were corrected with site observations from the German Meteorological Service. The results urge to check conventionally corrected series for consistency before using them for multidimensional models. Here, quantile mapping resulted in underestimation of diffuse radiation at hours with precipitation. This deficit was minimized by the developed procedure.     

Comparison of Meteoroid Flux Models for Near Earth Space

Over the last decade several new models for the sporadic interplanetary meteoroid flux have been developed. These include the Divine-Staubach and the Dikarev model. They typically cover mass ranges from 10⁻¹⁸ g to 1 g and are applicable for model specific Sun distance ranges between 0.1 AU and 20 AU Near 1 AU averaged fluxes (over direction and velocities) for all these models are tuned to the well established interplanetary model by Grün et al. However, in many respects these models differ considerably. Examples are the velocity and directional distributions and the assumed meteoroid sources. In this paper flux predictions by the various models to Earth orbiting spacecraft are compared. Main differences are presented and analysed. The persisting differences even for near Earth space can be seen as surprising in view of the numerous ground based (optical and radar) and in situ (captured Inter Stellar Dust Particles, in situ detectors and analysis of retrieved hardware) measurements and simulations.     

高亚洲及其邻区2003~2017年质量平衡的气候影响分析

利用重力恢复和气候实验(GRACE)数据获得高亚洲及其邻近地区的质量变化,可分析区域气候因素如印度季风、西风带和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对结果的影响。然而,最近的研究发现,西风带的贡献小于厄尔尼诺,与传统研究结论不同。因此,利用2003-01~2017-06期间GRACE RL06的Mascon数据进行复经验正交函数（CEOF）分析。研究发现,前3个主要成分对研究区质量变化的贡献率分别为53%、27%和6%,与印度季风、西风带和ENSO指数的相关系数分别是0.92±0.16、0.70±0.15和0.42±0.15,说明在长达14 a的观测时间跨度内,印度季风、西风带和ENSO对研究区质量变化的贡献分别为53%、27%和6%,西风带是研究区质量变化的第2个影响因素,这支持了传统的研究结论;ENSO通过印度季风对某些区域（如帕米尔高原、喜马拉雅山脉和印度西北部）的质量变化产生影响;在印度西北部、喜马拉雅山脉和藏东南地区,由于印度季风的减弱及其相关的ENSO作用和西风带的加强,质量变化呈现下降趋势;在兴都库什、西昆仑和东昆仑地区,由于西风带的增强,质量变化呈上升的趋势;在帕米尔和天山地区,虽然受到较强西风带的影响,但由于同时受到印度季风和ENSO减弱以及气温上升趋势的影响,质量变化呈下降的趋势。     

PAET,an entry probe experiment in the Earth's atmosphere

On June 20, 1971, an instrumented probe designated PAET entered the atmosphere near Bermuda at a velocity of 6.6 km/sec carrying experiments designed for use at planets other than the Earth. Instruments to measure in situ the structure and composition of the atmosphere included accelerometers, pressure and temperature sensors, a mass spectrometer, and a radiometer (to sense characteristic emission from the probe shock layer at high speeds).The experiments were largely successful. The thermal structure of the atmosphere, including two major reversals in gradient, was shown to be well defined to an altitude of 80 km by comparison with more conventional meteorological soundings. The atmospheric mean molecular weight was defined within a percent by the structure experiment. The radiometers defined the bulk composition accurately and the trace quantity of CO₂ to one significant figure. The mass spectrometer functioned properly, but failed to give the correct composition because of problems in its sampling system. Oxygen was depleted, apparently by chemical reactions before reaching the spectrometer, and the inlet leak conductance was reduced from its preflight value by an order of magnitude. There is reason to believe that contamination by large molecules from the heat shield was responsible. This experiment should stimulate intensive laboratory work on sampling systems, so that similar problems do not arise in measurements of atmospheric composition at the planets.Results of auxiliary experiments to measure atmospheric water vapor, vehicle dynamics and heating, and communications blackout are also given.     

Modification of fluid inclusions in quartz by deviatoric stress I: experimentally induced changes in inclusion shapes and microstructures

Fluid inclusions in quartz are known to modify their shapes and microstructures (textures) during weak plastic deformation. However, such changes have not been experimentally demonstrated and criteria are not available to relate them to paleostress conditions. To address these issues, quartz crystals containing natural CO₂–H₂O–NaCl fluid inclusions have been experimentally subjected to compressive deviatoric stresses of 90–250 MPa at 700°C and ~600 MPa confining pressure. Strains of up to 1% cause the inclusions to develop irregular shapes and to generate microcracks in crystallographic planes oriented subperpendicular to the major compression axis, σ ₁. The uniform alignment of the microcracks imparts a planar fabric to the samples. The microcracks heal and form swarms of tiny satellite inclusions. These new inclusions lose H₂O by diffusion, thereby triggering plastic deformation of the surrounding quartz via H₂O-weakening. Consequently, the quartz samples deform plastically only in domains originally rich in inclusions. This study shows that fluid inclusions deformed by deviatoric stresses may indeed record information on paleostress orientations and that they play a key role in facilitating crystal-plastic deformation of quartz.     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Benthic nitrogen cycling traversing the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone

Benthic nitrogen (N) cycling was investigated at six stations along a transect traversing the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) at 11°S. An extensive dataset including porewater concentration profiles and in situ benthic fluxes of nitrate (NO₃⁻), nitrite (NO₂⁻) and ammonium (NH₄⁺) was used to constrain a 1-D reaction-transport model designed to simulate and interpret the measured data at each station. Simulated rates of nitrification, denitrification, anammox and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) by filamentous large sulfur bacteria (e.g. Beggiatoa and Thioploca) were highly variable throughout the OMZ yet clear trends were discernible. On the shelf and upper slope (80-260 m water depth) where extensive areas of bacterial mats were present, DNRA dominated total N turnover (?2.9 mmol N m⁻² d⁻¹) and accounted for ?65% of NO₃⁻ + NO₂⁻ uptake by the sediments from the bottom water. Nonetheless, these sediments did not represent a major sink for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN = NO₃⁻ + NO₂⁻ + NH₄⁺) since DNRA reduces NO₃⁻ and, potentially NO₂⁻, to NH₄⁺. Consequently, the shelf and upper slope sediments were recycling sites for DIN due to relatively low rates of denitrification and high rates of ammonium release from DNRA and ammonification of organic matter. This finding contrasts with the current opinion that sediments underlying OMZs are a strong sink for DIN. Only at greater water depths (300-1000 m) did the sediments become a net sink for DIN. Here, denitrification was the major process (?2 mmol N m⁻² d⁻¹) and removed 55-73% of NO₃⁻ and NO₂⁻ taken up by the sediments, with DNRA and anammox accounting for the remaining fraction. Anammox was of minor importance on the shelf and upper slope yet contributed up to 62% to total N₂ production at the 1000 m station. The results indicate that the partitioning of oxidized N (NO₃⁻, NO₂⁻) into DNRA or denitrification is a key factor determining the role of marine sediments as DIN sinks or recycling sites. Consequently, high measured benthic uptake rates of oxidized N within OMZs do not necessarily indicate a loss of fixed N from the marine environment.     

Ar loss in experimentally deformed muscovite and biotite with implications for Ar/Ar geochronology of naturally deformed rocks

The effects of deformation on radiogenic argon (⁴⁰Ar^∗) retentivity in mica are described from high pressure experiments performed on rock samples of peraluminous granite containing euhedral muscovite and biotite. Cylindrical cores, ∼15 mm in length and 6.25 mm in diameter, were drilled from granite collected from the South Armorican Massif in northwestern France, loaded into gold capsules, and weld-sealed in the presence of excess water. The samples were deformed at a pressure of 10 kb and a temperature of 600 °C over a period 29 of hours within a solid medium assembly in a Griggs-type triaxial hydraulic deformation apparatus. Overall shortening in the experiments was approximately 10%. Transmitted light and secondary and backscattered electron imaging of the deformed granite samples reveals evidence of induced defects and for significant physical grain size reduction by kinking, cracking, and grain segmentation of the micas.Infrared (IR) laser (CO₂) heating of individual 1.5-2.5 mm diameter grains of muscovite and biotite separated from the undeformed granite yield well-defined ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages of 311 ± 2 Ma (2σ). Identical experiments on single grains separated from the experimentally deformed granite yield results indicating ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss of 0-35% in muscovite and 2-3% ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss in biotite. Intragrain in situ ultraviolet (UV) laser ablation ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages (±4-10%, 1σ) of deformed muscovites range from 309 ± 13 to 264 ± 7 Ma, consistent with 0-16% ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss relative to the undeformed muscovite. The in situ UV laser ablation ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of deformed biotite vary from 301 to 217 Ma, consistent with up to 32% ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss. No spatial correlation is observed between in situ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age and position within individual grains. Using available argon diffusion data for muscovite the observed ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss in the experimentally treated muscovite can be utilized to predict average ⁴⁰Ar^∗ diffusion dimensions. Maximum ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages obtained by UV laser ablation overlap those of the undeformed muscovite, indicating argon loss of <1% and an average effective grain radius for ⁴⁰Ar^∗ diffusion ?700 μm. The UV laser ablation and IR laser incremental ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages indicating ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss of 16% and 35%, respectively, are consistent with an average diffusion radius ?100 μm. These results support a hypothesis of grain-scale ⁴⁰Ar^∗ diffusion distances in undeformed mica and a heterogeneous mechanical reduction in the intragrain effective diffusion length scale for ⁴⁰Ar^∗ in deformed mica. Reduction in the effective diffusion length scale in naturally deformed samples occurs most probably through production of mesoscopic and submicroscopic defects such as, e.g., stacking faults. A network of interconnected defects, continuously forming and annealing during dynamic deformation likely plays an important role in controlling both ⁴⁰Ar^∗ retention and intragrain distribution in deformed mica. Intragrain ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages, when combined with estimates of diffusion kinetics and distances, may provide a means of establishing thermochronological histories from individual micas.     

Lithologic mapping of HED terrains on Vesta using Dawn Framing Camera color data

The surface composition of Vesta, the most massive intact basaltic object in the asteroid belt, is interesting because it provides us with an insight into magmatic differentiation of planetesimals that eventually coalesced to form the terrestrial planets. The distribution of lithologic and compositional units on the surface of Vesta provides important constraints on its petrologic evolution, impact history, and its relationship with vestoids and howardite‐eucrite‐diogenite (HED) meteorites. Using color parameters (band tilt and band curvature) originally developed for analyzing lunar data, we have identified and mapped HED terrains on Vesta in Dawn Framing Camera (FC) color data. The average color spectrum of Vesta is identical to that of howardite regions, suggesting an extensive mixing of surface regolith due to impact gardening over the course of solar system history. Our results confirm the hemispherical dichotomy (east‐west and north‐south) in albedo/color/composition that has been observed by earlier studies. The presence of diogenite‐rich material in the southern hemisphere suggests that it was excavated during the formation of the Rheasilvia and Veneneia basins. Our lithologic mapping of HED regions provides direct evidence for magmatic evolution of Vesta with diogenite units in Rheasilvia forming the lower crust of a differentiated object.