A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

     

Variability and propagation of Labrador Sea Water in the southern subpolar North Atlantic

The variability of two modes of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) (upper and deep Labrador Sea Water) and their respective spreading in the interior North Atlantic Ocean are investigated by means of repeated ship surveys carried out along the zonal WOCE line A2/AR19 located at 43–48°N (1993–2007) and along the GOOS line at about 48–51°N (1997–2002). Hydrographic section data are complemented by temperature, salinity, and velocity time series recorded by two moorings. They have been deployed at the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) in the Newfoundland Basin during 1996–2004. The analysis of hydrographic anomalies at various longitudes points to a gradual eastward propagation of LSW-related signals, which happens on time scales of 3–6 years from the formation region towards the MAR. Interactions of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) with the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) close to Flemish Cap point to the NAC being the main distributor of the different types of LSW into the interior of the Newfoundland Basin. Comparisons between the ship data and the mooring records revealed that the mooring sites are located in a region affected by highly variable flow. The mooring time series demonstrate an elevated level of variability with eddy activity and variability associated with the NAC considerably influencing the LSW signals in this region. Hydrographic data taken from Argo profiles from the vicinity of the mooring sites turned out to mimic quite well the temporal evolution captured by the moorings. There is some indication of occasional southward flow in the LSW layer near the MAR. If this can be considered as a hint to an interior LSW-route, it is at least of minor importance in comparison to the DWBC. It acts as an important supplier for the interior North Atlantic, distributing older and recently formed LSW modes southward along the MAR.     

Antenna design and implementation for the future space Ultra-Long wavelength radio telescope

In radio astronomy, the Ultra-Long Wavelengths (ULW) regime of longer than 10 m (frequencies below 30 MHz), remains the last virtually unexplored window of the celestial electromagnetic spectrum. The strength of the science case for extending radio astronomy into the ULW window is growing. However, the opaqueness of the Earth’s ionosphere makes ULW observations by ground-based facilities practically impossible. Furthermore, the ULW spectrum is full of anthropogenic radio frequency interference (RFI). The only radical solution for both problems is in placing an ULW astronomy facility in space. We present a concept of a key element of a space-borne ULW array facility, an antenna that addresses radio astronomical specifications. A tripole–type antenna and amplifier are analysed as a solution for ULW implementation. A receiver system with a low power dissipation is discussed as well. The active antenna is optimized to operate at the noise level defined by the celestial emission in the frequency band 1 ? 30 MHz. Field experiments with a prototype tripole antenna enabled estimates of the system noise temperature. They indicated that the proposed concept meets the requirements of a space-borne ULW array facility.     

The 26 December 2001 Solar Eruptive Event Responsible for GLE63: III. CME,Shock Waves,and Energetic Particles

The SOL2001-12-26 moderate solar eruptive event (GOES importance M7.1, microwaves up to 4000 sfu at 9.4 GHz, coronal mass ejection (CME) speed 1446 km?s^?1) produced strong fluxes of solar energetic particles and ground-level enhancement (GLE) of cosmic-ray intensity (GLE63). To find a possible reason for the atypically high proton outcome of this event, we study multi-wavelength images and dynamic radio spectra and quantitatively reconcile the findings with each other. An additional eruption probably occurred in the same active region about half an hour before the main eruption. The latter produced two blast-wave-like shocks during the impulsive phase. The two shock waves eventually merged around the radial direction into a single shock traced up to \(25~\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\) as a halo ahead of the expanding CME body, in agreement with an interplanetary Type II event recorded by the Radio and Plasma Wave Investigation (WAVES) experiment on the Wind spacecraft. The shape and kinematics of the halo indicate an intermediate regime of the shock between the blast wave and bow shock at these distances. The results show that i) the shock wave appeared during the flare rise and could accelerate particles earlier than usually assumed; ii) the particle event could be amplified by the preceding eruption, which stretched closed structures above the developing CME, facilitated its lift-off and escape of flare-accelerated particles, enabled a higher CME speed and stronger shock ahead; iii) escape of flare-accelerated particles could be additionally facilitated by reconnection of the flux rope, where they were trapped, with a large coronal hole; and iv) the first eruption supplied a rich seed population accelerated by a trailing shock wave.     

Danian cool-water coral reefs in southern Scandinavia localised over seafloor highs

Danian (Paleocene) reefs formed by ahermatypic scleractinian corals in relatively deep water are known in a few localities in southern Scandinavia. Reflection and shallow seismic profiles, and samples from drilling and scuba diving in bridge pier excavations in Øresund, the strait between Denmark and Sweden, for the first time allow interpretation of the factors that controlled the localisation of the reefs.     

Uncertainty in the application of the parabolic bay shape equation: Part 2

This paper attempts to highlight issues that are relevant in the application of the Parabolic Bay Shape Equation (PBSE) to a non-equilibrium bay. For this case, the bay of Imbituba in southern Brazil was chosen. The construction of a breakwater to shelter the port of Imbituba in the south of the bay was accompanied by an increase in sedimentation to the port area from an eroding downdrift beach. Superimposed plots of the coastline of the Bay of Imbituba from different years confirm a general trend of accretion of the southern part of the bay accompanied with a retreat of the coastline in the northern part. After the application of the PBSE it became clear that the breakwater caused a change in the equilibrium state of the bay. Between 1947 and 2001 the Bay of Imbituba has changed from a dynamic equilibrium to a natural beach reshaping or self-reshaping. The tendency of the sedimentation of the southern part of the bay can be explained by the SEP associated with the new updrift diffraction point (tip of the breakwater): The seaward position of the SEP predicts a need for additional sediment in order to achieve a stable plan form.     

Evaporation from the understorey in the Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata Don ex Sm.) forest, southwestern Australia

Annual evaporation from groundflora, litter and soil of the jarrah forest was estimated from measurements of daily evaporation by ventilated chambers on several days over two separate 12-month periods. In the first year, when sampling ranged over 0.1 ha of forest, annual evaporation during daylight hours was estimated as 410 mm (0.32 rainfall). In the second year, sampling was more frequent, on a larger scale, and included the night hours. Annual evaporation was estimated at 360 mm (0.36 rainfall).

Similarly, in the second year, annual evaporation from two trees of the dominant middle storey species, Banksia grandis, was estimated at 7500 and 18,9001 respectively. The leaf area of these two trees was 9.6 and 22.4 m², respectively, so that annual evaporation, when expressed as mm³ per mm² leaf area, was similar for both trees (mean = 820 ± 30 mm). Applying that value to all Banksia trees in a hectare of forest, and using a measured estimate of leaf area index of 0.19, the estimated annual evaporation from the Banksia component was 155 mm (0.16 rainfall). For the upland part of the forest sampled, the combined annual evaporation from the lower and middle storeys accounted for about half (0.51) of the annual rainfall.

We conclude that reduced evaporation from the upper storey following clearing or thinning may be strongly counteracted by increased evaporation from the understorey due to increased availability of energy and water.