A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

     

Evaporation from the understorey in the Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata Don ex Sm.) forest, southwestern Australia

Annual evaporation from groundflora, litter and soil of the jarrah forest was estimated from measurements of daily evaporation by ventilated chambers on several days over two separate 12-month periods. In the first year, when sampling ranged over 0.1 ha of forest, annual evaporation during daylight hours was estimated as 410 mm (0.32 rainfall). In the second year, sampling was more frequent, on a larger scale, and included the night hours. Annual evaporation was estimated at 360 mm (0.36 rainfall).

Similarly, in the second year, annual evaporation from two trees of the dominant middle storey species, Banksia grandis, was estimated at 7500 and 18,9001 respectively. The leaf area of these two trees was 9.6 and 22.4 m², respectively, so that annual evaporation, when expressed as mm³ per mm² leaf area, was similar for both trees (mean = 820 ± 30 mm). Applying that value to all Banksia trees in a hectare of forest, and using a measured estimate of leaf area index of 0.19, the estimated annual evaporation from the Banksia component was 155 mm (0.16 rainfall). For the upland part of the forest sampled, the combined annual evaporation from the lower and middle storeys accounted for about half (0.51) of the annual rainfall.

We conclude that reduced evaporation from the upper storey following clearing or thinning may be strongly counteracted by increased evaporation from the understorey due to increased availability of energy and water.     

The frequency and periodicity of preserved turbidites in submarine fans as a quantitative record of tectonic uplift in collision zones

The frequency and periodicity of preserved graded turbidite cycles in submarine fans in the Coral Sea and Sea of Japan are correlated to times of tectonic uplift in response to major collisions in the Owen-Stanley Range of Papua and the Hida Range of Japan, respectively. Large frequencies and shorter-term periodicities of turbidites at DSDP Site 210 were coeval with early Pliocene maximum tectonic-uplift rates which occurred in the Owen-Stanley Range in response to obduction. Similarly, large frequencies and shorter-term periodicities of turbidites at Site 299 (Toyama Submarine Fan) were coeval with the late Pleistocene uplift in the Hida Range; this uplift of 1000 to 1500 m occurred in response to collision tectonics. In both cases, trends of increasing frequencies and towards shorter-term periodicities of preserved turbidite depositional events correlate to trends of increasing rates of tectonic uplift.The role of sea-level fluctuations on changing denudation rates in these two collision zones is secondary. At Site 210, larger frequencies and short-term periodicities of preserved turbidites were coeval with early Pliocene high stands of sea level, whereas at Site 299, Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations are considered minor because at low stands of sea level, both relief and denudation rates were increased by about ten to 14%. At Site 286 (New Hebrides Basin), Eocene turbidite deposition is coeval with high stands of sea level, whereas at Site 297 (Northern Shikoku Basin), turbidite deposition was coeval with both rising and falling sea level.Analysis of both frequency and periodicity of turbidites by fan subenvironment at Site 299 indicates a record of continuous deposition, and maintainance of frequency and periodicity trends controlled by tectonic uplift. Late Pleistocene channel and overbank deposits showed periodicity differences of less than 28% of an order of magnitude, whereas Miocene-Pliocene overbank and distal turbidite periodicities differed by a 19% order of magnitude. Greater differences in magnitude occurred between distal turbidites or early Pleistocene age and Pliocene age than between Miocene-Pliocene overbank and distal turbidite deposition with a magnitude difference of 860%. These findings suggest that shifting depocenters and differences in sedimentation history in subenvironments of submarine fans are secondary to the role of tectonic uplift in this particular case.The minimal rate of tectonic uplift required to generate deep-sea fan turbidities appears to be approximately 400 m/million years. This figure is tentative and is based on very few observation points.Frequency and periodicity of preserved turbidite cycles in submarine fans in active continental margins and ancient counterparts should provide an independent measurement of rates and timing of tectonic uplift, particularly in collision terrains. Because this sediment parameter is a record of a single process from a single source and a record of “event stratigraphy”, its usage is preferable over standard and bulk sediment accumulation rates determined from age depth curves.     

Al depth profile in Apollo 15 drill core

Cosmic-ray-produced²⁶Al (t_1/2 = 7.05 × 10⁵ years) has been measured in the Apollo 15 long core (surface to 390 g/cm²—218 cm) for study of galactic cosmic ray production profiles, using accelerator mass spectrometry. The results are in general accord with non-destructive counting data obtained earlier, but systematically lower, and significantly higher precision. From this experiment the half-attenuation length for²⁶Al production can be calculated to be 122 g/cm² (150–400 g/cm² region) after normalizing the data to average chemical composition. The⁵³Mn (t_1/2 = 3.7 × 10⁶ years) production profile in deep cores was also compiled to date. The half-attenuation length for⁵³Mn production was calculated to be 123 g/cm² (150–400 g/cm² region).     

Intergrowth of pyroxene and pyroxenoid; chain periodicity faults in pyroxene

Intergrowth of clinopyroxenes (augite, A) and pyroxenoids (Fe-rhodonite and pyroxferroite, Pxo) was observed by transmission electron microscopy. The following orientation relationship was found: (001)_Pxo is parallel to \((1\mathop {\bar 1}\limits^ + \bar 1)_{\text{A}}\) and \([1\bar 10]_{Pxo}\) is parallel to [011]_A. This relationship can be explained by similarities of the structures of clinopyroxenes and pyroxenoids. It contradicts a suggestion based on structural arguments of Koto et al. (1976). Chain periodicity faults parallel to \((1\mathop {\bar 1}\limits^ + \bar 1)\) are also observed in pure clinopyroxenes.