Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

There are two main approaches for dealing with model biases in forecasts made with initialized climate models. In full-field initialization, model biases are removed during the assimilation process by constraining the model to be close to observations. Forecasts drift back towards the model’s preferred state, thereby re-establishing biases which are then removed with an a posterior lead-time dependent correction diagnosed from a set of historical tests (hindcasts). In anomaly initialization, the model is constrained by observed anomalies and deviates from its preferred climatology only by the observed variability. In theory, the forecasts do not drift, and biases may be removed based on the difference between observations and independent model simulations of a given period. Both approaches are currently in use, but their relative merits are unclear. Here we compare the skill of each approach in comprehensive decadal hindcasts starting each year from 1960 to 2009, made using the Met Office decadal prediction system. Both approaches are more skilful than climatology in most regions for temperature and some regions for precipitation. On seasonal timescales, full-field initialized hindcasts of regional temperature and precipitation are significantly more skilful on average than anomaly initialized hindcasts. Teleconnections associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are stronger with the full-field approach, providing a physical basis for the improved precipitation skill. Differences in skill on multi-year timescales are generally not significant. However, anomaly initialization provides a better estimate of forecast skill from a limited hindcast set.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

The use of mycorrhiza for eco‐engineering measures in steep alpine environments: effects on soil aggregate formation and fine‐root development

Steep erosion‐prone and vegetation‐free slopes are widespread in alpine areas and are often discussed since they have a high socio‐economic damage potential. We present an eco‐engineering approach to test whether a mycorrhizal inoculum improves the establishment of hedge brush layers and in turn soil structural stability on a steep, coarse‐grained vegetation‐free slope in the eastern Swiss Alps. We established (i) mycorrhizal and (ii) non‐mycorrhizal treated eco‐engineered research plots on a field experimental scale, covering a total area of approximately 1000 m² on an east‐northeast (ENE) exposed slope, where many environmental parameters can be regarded as homogeneous. After a full vegetation period, we quantified soil aggregate stability, the formation of water stable aggregates and the fine‐root development. Our results illustrate that the establishment of brush layers without mycorrhizal inoculum increased aggregate stability significantly. Against our expectation and glasshouse experiments, the addition of mycorrhizal inoculum did not have a statistically significant effect after one vegetation period although it tended to increase aggregate stability. Analogously, root length density (RLD) tended to be higher at the non‐mycorrhizal treated site. Aggregate stability was significantly correlated with RLD. Studies on a bigger field experimental scale are inevitable, complement glasshouse studies and lead to a better understanding for a successful application of sustainable eco‐engineering measures in alpine environments. Based on our results and considering the fact that the response time in natural ecosystems may be slower than in laboratory approaches, we conclude that long‐term field studies are necessary to validate results gained through laboratory experiments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Simplified Analytical Procedure for the Determination of Organically Bound Halogens in Salt‐containing Water Samples

A method was developed for the determination of organic halogens in water samples with the aim of minimizing matrix effects and simplifying the sample preparation technique commonly used. The method is based on the adsorption of organic halogens in modified hydrophilic divinylbenzene polymer columns and their elution with methanol. The adsorbent used enables rapid adsorption and desorption due to comparatively high operating flow rates and minimized solvent amounts. Furthermore, no additional reconcentration steps are needed. The methanol extract obtained is combusted with a standard EOX (extractable organic halogen) analyzer and the concentration of organically bound halogens is determined by microcoulometric analysis. The matrix effects are considerably reduced compared to the standard procedure (EN 1485) commonly used. A detection limit of 13 μg/L was established.     

Evaluation of Combined Direct-Push Methods Used for Aquifer Model Generation

Most established methods to characterize aquifer structure and hydraulic conductivities of hydrostratigraphical units are not capable of delivering sufficient information in the spatial resolution that is desired for sophisticated numerical contaminant transport modeling and adapted remediation design. With hydraulic investigation methods based on the direct-push (DP) technology such as DP slug tests, DP injection logging, and the hydraulic profiling tool, it is possible to rapidly delineate hydrogeological structures and estimate their hydraulic conductivity in shallow unconsolidated aquifers without the need for wells. A combined application of these tools was used for the investigation of a contaminated German refinery site and for the setup of hydraulic aquifer models. The quality of DP investigation and the models was evaluated by comparisons of tracer transport simulations using these models and measured breakthroughs of two natural gradient tracer tests. Model scenarios considering the information of all tools together showed good reproduction of the measured breakthroughs, indicating the suitability of the approach and a minor impact of potential technical limitations. Using the DP slug tests alone yielded significantly higher deviations for the determined hydraulic conductivities compared to considering two or three of the tools. Realistic aquifer models developed on basis of such combined DP investigation approaches can help optimize remediation concepts or identify flow regimes for aquifers with a complex structure.     

Microfabrics of calcite ultramylonites as records of coaxial and non-coaxial deformation kinematics: Examples from the Rocher de l'Yret shear zone (Western Alps)

Microfabrics were analysed in calcite mylonites from the rim of the Pelvoux massif (Western Alps, France). WNW-directed emplacement of the internal Penninic units onto the Dauphinois domain produced intense deformation of an Eocene-age nummulitic limestone under lower anchizone metamorphic conditions (slightly below 300 °C). Two types of microfabrics developed primarily by dislocation creep accompanied by dynamic recrystallisation in the absence of twinning. Coaxial kinematics are inferred for samples exhibiting grain shape fabrics and textures with orthorhombic symmetry. Their texture (crystallographic preferred orientation, CPO) is characterised by two c-axis maxima, symmetrically oriented at 15° from the normal to the macroscopic foliation. Non-coaxial deformation is evident in samples with monoclinic shape fabrics and textures characterised by a single oblique c-axis maximum tilted with the sense of shear by about 15°. From the analysis of suitably oriented slip systems for the main texture components under given kinematics it is inferred that the orthorhombic textures, which developed in coaxial kinematics, favour activity of <10–11> and <02–21> slip along the f and r planes, respectively, with minor contributions of basal-<a> slip. In contrast, the monoclinic textures, which developed during simple shear, are most suited for duplex <a> slip along the basal plane. The transition between the dominating slip systems for the orthorhombic and monoclinic microfabrics is interpreted to be due to the effects of dynamic recrystallisation upon texture development. Since oblique c-axis maxima documented in the literature are most often rotated not with but against the shear sense, calcite textures alone should not be used as unequivocal shear sense indicators, but need to be complemented by microstructural criteria such as shape preferred orientations, grain size estimates and amount of twinning.