Developing a hybrid multi‐model for peak flood forecasting

The present study aims to develop a hybrid multi‐model using the soft computing approach. The model is a combination of a fuzzy logic, artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA). While neural networks are low‐level computational structures that perform well dealing with raw data, fuzzy logic deal with reasoning on a higher level by using linguistic information acquired from domain experts. However, fuzzy systems lack the ability to learn and cannot adjust themselves to a new environment. Moreover, experts occasionally make mistakes and thus some rules used in a system may be false. A network type structure of the present hybrid model is a multi‐layer feed‐forward network, the main part is a fuzzy system based on the first‐order Sugeno fuzzy model with a fuzzification and a defuzzification processes. The consequent parameters are determined by least square method. The back‐propagation is applied to adjust weights of network. Then, the antecedent parameters of the membership function are updated accordingly by the gradient descent method. The GA was applied to select the fuzzy rule. The hybrid multi‐model was used to forecast the flood level at Chiang Mai (under the big flood 2005) and the Koriyama flood (2003) in Japan. The forecasting results are evaluated using standard global goodness of fit statistic, efficient index (EI), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the peak flood error. Moreover, the results are compared to the results of a neuro‐genetic model (NGO) and ANFIS model using the same input and output variables. It was found that the hybrid multi‐model can be used successfully with an efficiency index (EI) more than 0·95 (for Chiang Mai flood up to 12 h ahead forecasting) and more than 0·90 (for Koriyama flood up to 8 h ahead forecasting). In general, all of three models can predict the water level with satisfactory results. However, the hybrid model gave the best flood peak estimation among the three models. Therefore, the use of fuzzy rule base, which is selected by GA in the hybrid multi‐model helps to improve the accuracy of flood peak. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dating of Dissolved Iodine in Pore Waters from the Gas Hydrate Occurrence Offshore Shimokita Peninsula,Japan: 129I Results from the D/V Chikyu Shakedown Cruise

Iodine concentration and radioisotopic composition (¹²⁹I/I) were measured in the pore waters from the gas hydrate occurrence in the forearc basin offshore Shimokita Peninsula, north-eastern Japan, to determine the source formation of I and accompanying hydrocarbons. Iodine concentrations correlate well with the alkalinity and SO₄ patterns, reflecting degradation stages of I-rich buried organic matter, rapidly increasing in the sulfate reduction interval, and becoming constant below 250 meters below the seafloor with an upwelling flux of 1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ µmol cm⁻² year⁻¹. The ¹²⁹I/I ratios of 300 × 10⁻¹⁵–400 × 10⁻¹⁵ in deep pore waters suggest ages for iodine and hydrocarbon sources as old as 40 Ma. These ages correlate well with the coaly source formations of the Eocene age thought to be responsible for the conventional natural gas deposits underlying the gas hydrate stability zone. Similar profiles are observed in ¹²⁹I/I ratios of pore waters in the gas hydrate stability zone from the forearc basin in the eastern Nankai Trough, offshore central Japan, where pore waters are enriched in I and reach ages as old as ∼50 Ma through the sediment column. At the outer ridge site along the trough, on the other hand, relatively younger I are more frequently delivered probably through thrusts/faults associated with subduction. The nature of source formations of I and hydrocarbons in the offshore Shimokita Peninsula has a more terrestrial contribution compared with those in the Nankai Trough, but these formations are also considerably older than the host sediments, suggesting long-term transport of I and hydrocarbons for the accumulation of gas hydrates in both locations.     

Evolution of West Rota Volcano, an extinct submarine volcano in the southern Mariana Arc: Evidence from sea floor morphology, remotely operated vehicle observations and 40Ar–39Ar geochronological studies

Abstract West Rota Volcano (WRV) is a recently discovered extinct submarine volcano in the southern Mariana Arc. It is large (25 km diameter base), shallow (up to 300 m below sealevel), and contains a large caldera (6 × 10 km, with up to 1 km relief). The WRV lies near the northern termination of a major NNE‐trending normal fault. This and a second, parallel fault just west of the volcano separate uplifted, thick frontal arc crust to the east from subsiding, thin back‐arc basin crust to the west. The WRV is distinct from other Mariana Arc volcanoes: (i) it consists of a lower, predominantly andesite section overlain by a bimodal rhyolite‐basalt layered sequence; (ii) andesitic rocks are locally intensely altered and mineralized; (iii) it has a large caldera; and (iv) WRV is built on a major fault. Submarine felsic calderas are common in the Izu and Kermadec Arcs but are otherwise unknown from the Marianas and other primitive, intraoceanic arcs. ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating indicates that andesitic volcanism comprising the lower volcanic section occurred 0.33–0.55 my ago, whereas eruption of the upper rhyolites and basalts occurred 37–51 thousand years ago. Four sequences of rhyolite pyroclastics each are 20–75 m thick, unwelded and show reverse grading, indicating submarine eruption. The youngest unit consists of 1–2 m diameter spheroids of rhyolite pumice, interpreted as magmatic balloons, formed by relatively quiet effusion and inflation of rhyolite into the overlying seawater. Geochemical studies indicate that felsic magmas were generated by anatexis of amphibolite‐facies meta‐andesites, perhaps in the middle arc crust. The presence of a large felsic volcano and caldera in the southern Marianas might indicate interaction of large normal faults with a mid‐crustal magma body at depth, providing a way for viscous felsic melts to reach the surface.     

Estimation of inner-core rotation rate by using the Earth’s free oscillation

We estimate a rate of inner-core differential rotation from time variations of splitting functions of seven core modes of the Earth’s free oscillations excited by eight large earthquakes in a period of 1994–2003. The splitting functions and moment tensor elements are simultaneously determined for each core mode by a spectral fitting technique. The estimated moment tensor well agrees with Harvard CMT solution. The splitting functions are corrected for the effect of mantle heterogeneity using a 3D mantle velocity model. Inner-core rotation angle about the Earth’s spin axis is determined for each core mode as a function of event year by comparison of the corrected and reference splitting functions. Mean rotation rate of six core modes is estimated at 0.03±0.18° per year westward, and this value is insignificantly different from zero. Therefore, the inner core is not rotating at a significant rate relatively to the crust and mantle.     

Sumisu volcano,Izu-Bonin arc,Japan: site of a silicic caldera-forming eruption from a small open-ocean island

Sumisu volcano was the site of an eruption during 30–60 ka that introduced ∼48–50 km³ of rhyolite tephra into the open-ocean environment at the front of the Izu-Bonin arc. The resulting caldera is 8 × 10 km in diameter, has steep inner walls 550–780 m high, and a floor averaging 900 m below sea level. In the course of five research cruises to the Sumisu area, a manned submersible, two ROVs, a Deep-Tow camera sled, and dredge samples were used to study the caldera and surrounding areas. These studies were augmented by newly acquired single-channel seismic profiles and multi-beam seafloor swath-mapping. Caldera-wall traverses show that pre-caldera eruptions built a complex of overlapping dacitic and basaltic edifices, that eventually grew above sea level to form an island about 200 m high. The caldera-forming eruption began on the island and probably produced a large eruption column. We interpret that prodigious rates of tephra fallback overwhelmed the Sumisu area, forming huge rafts of floating pumice, choking the nearby water column with hyperconcentrations of slowly settling tephra, and generating pyroclastic gravity currents of water-saturated pumice that traveled downslope along the sea floor. Thick, compositionally similar pumice deposits encountered in ODP Leg 126 cores 70 km to the south could have been deposited by these gravity currents. The caldera-rim, presently at ocean depths of 100–400 m, is mantled by an extensive layer of coarse dense lithic clasts, but syn-caldera pumice deposits are only thin and locally preserved. The paucity of syn-caldera pumice could be due to the combined effects of proximal non-deposition and later erosion by strong ocean currents. Post-caldera edifice instability resulted in the collapse of a 15° sector of the eastern caldera rim and the formation of bathymetrically conspicuous wavy slump structures that disturb much of the volcano’s surface.     

拉萨上空大气气溶胶光学特性的 激光雷达探测

叙述了大气气溶胶激光雷达探测方程的求解方法,以及1998年夏季在拉萨使用激光雷达观测的一些结果,并与日本名古屋市上空的探测资料进行了对比分析,得到了拉萨上空气溶胶光学性质的一般特征,并对其成因进行了讨论。     

Validation of a new generation system for bottom boundary layer beneath solitary wave

Understanding of sea bottom boundary layer characteristics, especially bottom shear stress acting on the sea bed, is an important step needed in sediment transport modeling for practical application purposes. In the present study, a new generation system for bottom boundary layer under solitary wave is proposed. Applicability of this system is examined by comparing measured and numerical solution velocities. Moreover, transitional behavior from laminar to turbulence was investigated. It is concluded that the critical Reynolds number in the experiments shows good agreement with DNS result of Vittori and Blondeaux (2008) and laboratory data of Sumer et al. (2010), indicating validity of the generation system. Since the present generation system enables continuous measurement to obtain ensemble averaged quantities, it can be effectively utilized for future experimental studies on solitary wave boundary layers, including sediment transport experiments with movable bed.