Comparison of landslide susceptibility based on a decision-tree model and actual landslide occurrence: The Akaishi Mountains, Japan

This paper proposes a statistical decision-tree model to analyze landslide susceptibility in a wide area of the Akaishi Mountains, Japan. The objectives of this study were to validate the decision-tree model by comparing landslide susceptibility and actual landslide occurrence, and to reveal the relationships among landslide occurrence, topography, and geology. Landslide susceptibility was examined through ensemble learning with a decision tree. Decision trees are advantageous in that estimation processes and order of important explanatory variables are explicitly represented by the tree structures. Topographic characteristics (elevation, slope angle, profile curvature, plan curvature, and dissection and undissection height) and geological data were used as the explanatory variables. These topographic characteristics were calculated from digital elevation models (DEMs). The objective variables were landslide occurrence and reactivation data between 1992 and 2002 that were depicted by satellite image analysis. Landslide susceptibility was validated by comparing actual data on landslides that occurred and reactivated after the model was constructed (between 2002 and 2004).This study revealed that, from 2002 to 2004, landslides tended to occur and reactivate in catchments with high landslide susceptibility. The landslide susceptibility map thus depicts the actual landslide occurrence and reactivation in the Akaishi Mountains. This result indicates that the decision-tree model has appropriate accuracy for estimating the probabilities of future landslides. The tree structure indicates that landslides occurred and reactivated frequently in the catchments that had an average slope angle exceeding ca. 29° and a mode of slope angle exceeding 33°, which agree well with previous studies. A decision tree also quantitatively expresses important explanatory variables at the higher order of the tree structure.     

Seismological monitoring on the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, derived from off Kushiro permanent cabled OBSs and land-based observations

Japan Marine Science and Technology Center installed a cabled geophysical observatory system off Kushiro, Hokkaido Island in July 1999. This observatory system comprises three ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs), two tsunami gauges, and a geophysical/geochemical monitoring system. 4 years and 2 months after the installation, a megathrust earthquake (the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake, 26th September in Japan Standard Time (JST), M_JMA 8.0) occurred along a plate boundary underneath a forearc basin where the system is located. The system recorded clear unsaturated seismograms just at 28.6 km from the epicenter. This paper demonstrates advantages brought by the cabled observatory to record the megathrust earthquake showing how earthquake detectability is improved dramatically combining permanent OBS and land-based observations around the region, and importance of the in situ monitoring on the seismogenic zone. In the present study, processing OBSs and land-based network together, and comparing magnitudes of common observed earthquakes with national authorized network, event detection level improved down to M 1.5, which is much lower than the previously designed as down to M  2. Comparing detection level before and after installing OBSs, we found dramatic improvement of the earthquake detection level in the interesting region. Real-time continuous observations of microearthquakes since 1999 have brought us tremendous findings. First, a seismic quiescence started about 10 days before the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake. Second, aftershock distribution is not uniform over the focal area and can be divided into several sub-regions, which might indicate an existence of several asperities. We think that the geophysical observations helped to understand the initiation process of the rupture of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake and that observations including seismological, geodynamic, hydrogeological, and the other multidisciplinary observations would provide a clue to future understanding of seismogenic processes at subduction zones.     

Chemical overprinting of magmatism by weathering: A practical method for evaluating the degree of chemical weathering of granitoids

Quantitative determination of the degree of chemical weathering of rocks is a fundamental task in environmental and engineering geology, and many weathering indices based on whole-rock chemistry have been proposed. However, most classical indices are of limited application to granitoids in a wide area, because these lithotypes generally exhibit wide chemical variation arising from their petrogenesis. The chemical evolution produced during rock weathering, therefore, overprints pre-existing magmatic chemical variation. This problem can cause many classical weathering indices to yield misleading results. This study proposes a method that compensates for the influence of petrogenesis on calculation of the weathering index. The method is based on a bivariate plot of the magmatic chemical variation (MCV) in granitoids, and the degree of chemical weathering (DCW). The MCV axis must be based on an element that reflects magmatic processes and is also relatively immobile during rock weathering. In this study TiO₂ contents are utilized for the MCV. The DCW axis is fundamentally defined by the ratios of more-mobile to less-mobile elements during weathering, and hence many classical indices can be applied. The improved value of the degree of chemical weathering (DCW_i) for a weathered rock is derived by:

DCWi=s×(MCVCV-MCV₁)+DCW₁${\text{DCW}}_{\text{i}}=\text{s}\times ({\text{MCV}}_{\text{CV}}-{\text{MCV}}_1)+{\text{DCW}}_1$

where MCV₁ is the measured composition (e.g. TiO₂ content) of the weathered rock. DCW₁ denotes the ratios of more-mobile to less-mobile elements of the weathered rock. The “s” parameter is the slope of the least square linear regression for fresh granitoids in the MCV–DCW relationship. MCV_CV is a correction factor which is given by the average point on the MCV axis (e.g. average TiO₂) of the fresh rocks. This method is useful for evaluating the degree of weathering of various granitoids, and enhances the practical application of many weathering indices.     

Origin of three-dimensional shapes of chondrules: I. Hydrodynamics simulations of rotating droplet exposed to high-velocity rarefied gas flow

The origin of three-dimensional shapes of chondrules is an important information to identify their formation mechanism in the early solar nebula. The measurement of their shapes by using X-ray computed topography suggested that they are usually close to perfect spheres, however, some of them have rugby-ball-like (prolate) shapes [Tsuchiyama, A., Shigeyoshi, R., Kawabata, T., Nakano, T., Uesugi, K., Shirono, S., 2003. Lunar Planet. Sci. 34, 1271-1272]. We considered that the prolate shapes reflect the deformations of chondrule precursor dust particles when they are heated and melted in the high velocity gas flow. In order to reveal the origin of chondrule shapes, we carried out the three-dimensional hydrodynamics simulations of a rotating molten chondrule exposed to the gas flow in the framework of the shock-wave heating model for chondrule formation. We adopted the gas ram pressure acting on the chondrule surface of in a typical shock wave. Considering that the chondrule precursor dust particle has an irregular shape before melting, the ram pressure causes a net torque to rotate the particle. The estimated angular velocity is for the precursor radius of r₀=1 mm, though it has a different value depending on the irregularity of the shape. In addition, the rotation axis is likely to be perpendicular to the direction of the gas flow. Our calculations showed that the rotating molten chondrule elongates along the rotation axis, in contrast, shrinks perpendicularly to it. It is a prolate shape. The reason why the molten chondrule is deformed to a prolate shape was clearly discussed. Our study gives a complementary constraint for chondrule formation mechanisms, comparing with conventional chemical analyses and dynamic crystallization experiments that have mainly constrained the thermal evolutions of chondrules.     

The Solar Optical Telescope of Solar-B (Hinode): The Optical Telescope Assembly

The Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard the Solar-B satellite (Hinode) is designed to perform high-precision photometric and polarimetric observations of the Sun in visible light spectra (388 – 668 nm) with a spatial resolution of 0.2 – 0.3 arcsec. The SOT consists of two optically separable components: the Optical Telescope Assembly (OTA), consisting of a 50-cm aperture Gregorian with a collimating lens unit and an active tip-tilt mirror, and an accompanying Focal Plane Package (FPP), housing two filtergraphs and a spectro-polarimeter. The optomechanical and optothermal performance of the OTA is crucial to attain unprecedented high-quality solar observations. We describe in detail the instrument design and expected stable diffraction-limited on-orbit performance of the OTA, the largest state-of-the-art solar telescope yet flown in space.     

Balloon-Borne Hard X-Ray Spectrometer Using CdTe Detectors

Spectroscopic observation of solar flares in the hard X-ray energy range, particularly the 20 ∼ 100 keV region, is an invaluable tool for investigating the flare mechanism. This paper describes the design and performance of a balloon-borne hard X-ray spectrometer using CdTe detectors developed for solar flare observation. The instrument is a small balloon payload (gondola weight 70 kg) with sixteen 10×10×0.5 mm CdTe detectors, designed for a 1-day flight at 41 km altitude. It observes in an energy range of 20−120 keV and has an energy resolution of 3 keV at 60 keV. The second flight on 24 May 2002 succeeded in observing a class M1.1 flare.     

New discoveries in dynamics of an M8 earthquake-phenomena and their implications from the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake using a long term monitoring cabled observatory

At the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8, seafloor phenomena such as a generation process of tsunami, seafloor uplifts, turbidity current, etc., were observed using a cabled observatory installed on the seafloor. The turbidity current was observed as a benthic storm caused presumably by the mainshock. The seafloor uplifts were observed at the mainshock and continuously after the mainshock. The uplifts were 0.35, 0.37, and 0.12 m for epicentral distances of 25.5, 31.4, and 81.7 km, respectively. After the mainshock, a continuous uplift of the seafloor is observed at all three pressure gauge locations indicating that there was a change in the state of friction on the plate boundary interface by the mainshock. In this paper, we first show what was observed using the cabled observatory installed right above the focal area of the earthquake, and then we discuss to summarize these phenomena associated with the earthquake, its possible causes, and future directions in long term monitoring of seismogenic processes.     

Hydrogen, Oxygen and Sulfur Isotope Studies of Seafloor Hydrothermal System at the Desmos Caldera, Manus Back-arc Basin, Papua New Guinea: An Analogue of Terrestrial Acid Hot Crater-lake

Abstract. The Onsen site is an active submarine hydrothermal system hosted by the Desmos caldera in the Eastern Manus Basin, Papua New Guinea. The hydrothermal fluid is very acidic (pH=1.5) and abundant native sulfur is deposited around the vent. The δ³⁴S values of native sulfur range from -6.5 to -9.3 %o. δ³⁴S values of H₂S and SO₄ in the hydrothermal fluid are -4.3 to -9.9 %o and +18.6 to +20.0 %o, respectively. These δ³⁴S values are significantly lower than those of the other hydrothermal systems so far reported. These low δ³⁴S values and the acidic nature of the vent fluids suggest that volcanic SO₂ gas plays an important role on the sulfur isotope systematic of the Onsen hydrothermal system. Relationship among the δ³⁴S values of S-bearing species can be successively explained by the model based on the disproportionation reaction starting from the volcanic SO₂ gas. The predicted δ³⁴S values of SO₂ agree with the measured whole rock δ³⁴S values. δD and δ¹⁸O values of clay minerals separated from the altered rock samples also suggest the contribution of the magmatic fluid to the hydrothermal system. Present stable isotopic study strongly suggests that the Onsen hydrothermal site in the Desmos caldera is a magmatic submarine hydrothermal system.