Impacts of nutrient management and decrease in paddy field area on groundwater nitrate concentration: a case study at the Nasunogahara alluvial fan,Tochigi Prefecture,Japan

In order to help evaluate the trends in the NO₃-N concentration in groundwater with a view to preventing further degradation in water quality in the future, a distributed groundwater quality model was constructed for the Nasunogahara basin. The best fit for the groundwater table elevations by the flow component of the model was achieved with average mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 0·92 m for the calibration period and 0·83 m for the validation period. Moreover, the best fit for the NO₃-N concentration by the water quality component was achieved with average mean relative errors (MREs) of 29·8% for the calibration period and 30·3% for the validation period. After developing a robust model, various change scenarios were tested; specifically, the effects of effluent load control and a decrease in paddy field area on the NO₃-N concentration in groundwater were predicted. The most intensively farmed area contributed about 40% of the total effluent load because of livestock farming in the basin. When the effluent load from this area was decreased by 50%, the average NO₃-N concentrations at sites S1, S2 and S3 were reduced by about 15%; however, the average concentrations at S4 and S5 were reduced by only 1%. Furthermore, when the total effluent load from the concentrated livestock area was removed completely, the average groundwater NO₃-N concentrations at S1, S2 and S3 were reduced by about 30% as compared with the original calculated results. In contrast, decreasing the area of the paddy fields in the basin did not greatly influence the groundwater NO₃-N concentration. In the case of a 70% reduction in paddy field area, average NO₃-N concentrations increased by about 7% at S1, S2 and S3. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

New and previous versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models are used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Fifteen ensemble experiments are performed under the International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. Most of the ensemble future (2075–2099) experiments do not project significant future changes in the basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) in TC frequency over the Arabian Sea and a decrease (by 31 %) in the Bay of Bengal. Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked seasonal variation in the NIO: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the post-monsoon season. Several large-scale thermodynamic and dynamical parameters are analysed to elucidate the physical mechanism responsible for the future changes in TC activity; this analysis reveals a seasonal dependence of the relative contribution of these parameters to the projected future changes in TC genesis frequency.     

Extinction curves expected in young galaxies

We investigate the extinction curves of young galaxies in which dust is supplied from Type II supernovae (SNe II) and/or pair instability supernovae (PISNe). We adopt Nozawa et al. (2003) for compositions and size distribution of grains formed in SNe II and PISNe. We find that the extinction curve is quite sensitive to internal metal mixing in supernovae (SNe). The extinction curves predicted from the mixed SNe are dominated by SiO₂ and are characterized by a steep rise from infrared to ultraviolet (UV). The dust from unmixed SNe shows a shallower extinction curve, because of the contribution from large-sized (∼0.1 μm) Si grains. However, the progenitor mass is important in unmixed SNe II: if the progenitor mass is smaller than  ∼20 M_⊙  , the extinction curve is flat in UV; otherwise, the extinction curve rises towards the short wavelength. The extinction curve observed in a high-redshift quasar  ( z = 6.2)  favours the dust production by unmixed SNe II. We also provide some useful observational quantities, so that our model might be compared with future high- z extinction curves.     

Statistical Analysis of Ground Motions Estimated on the Basis of a Recipe for Strong-motion Prediction: Approach to Quantitative Evaluation of Average and Standard Deviation of Ground Motion Distribution

For seismic hazard assessment, we study the variabilities of predicted ground motion on the basis of a ??recipe for predicting strong ground motion?? and propose approximations to evaluate spatial distributions of the standard deviation for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0 in the estimated ground motions. For strong-motion prediction, we use a finite difference method for a long period range (>1.0?s). To estimate variabilities, a Monte Carlo simulation is used and we adopt the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique to reduce computations. In this article, we consider only aleatory variabilities in source parameters among all possible variabilities, such as those in the source parameters, the propagation characteristics and site characteristics. Model sources are assumed for dip-slip fault and strike-slip fault, and the variabilities are considered for parameters such as asperity location, rupture starting point, average asperity slip contrast, stress drop and rupture velocity. On the target site, 100 instances of PGV, R1.0, R2.0 and R5.0 data are obtained for 100 sets of parameters and an average and a standard deviation of the log normal distribution, corresponding to the variability for ground motion estimation, are statistically analyzed. For all target sites uniformly distributed in the area around the faults, the average and the standard deviation are statistically analyzed and spread to spatial maps. It is found that the spatial distributions of standard deviation values for both the dip-slip and strike-slip faults are not uniform. Approximations are attempted to develop a quantitative evaluation for spatial distributions of the standard deviation of the log normal distribution for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0. The spatial distributions by these approximations are considered to almost reconstruct the characteristics, which are statistically analyzed by the finite difference method.     

Rheological contrast between garnet and clinopyroxene in the mantle wedge: An example from Higashi-akaishi peridotite mass,SW Japan

Garnet clinopyroxenites occur within foliated dunite in the Higashi-akaishi peridotite mass, located within the subduction-type high-pressure/low-temperature Sanbagawa metamorphic belt. The garnet clinopyroxenites contain 3–80% garnet, and garnet and clinopyroxene are homogeneously distributed. Garnet crystals contain extensive, regular dislocation arrays and dislocation networks, suggesting that dislocation creep was the dominant deformation mechanism. Analyses of crystallographic orientation maps indicate similar grain sizes and aspect ratios for garnet and clinopyroxene, regardless of modal composition, indicating that these minerals deformed with similar degree of plasticity. Moreover, indexes of crystallographic fabric intensity (i.e., J-index and M-index) for both garnet and clinopyroxene tend to increase with increasing modal composition of garnet. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy analysis revealed that water content in garnet is ～60 ppm, whereas that in clinopyroxene is ～70 ppm. Olivine crystal-preferred orientations in the Higashi-akaishi peridotite mass, characterized by [0 0 1] (0 1 0), are thought to have developed during deformation under wet conditions. Consequently, we argue that the presence of water could act to enhance garnet plasticity during deformation. The results reveal contrasting influences of water on the deformation of garnet and diopside: under wet conditions compared with dry, the strain rate increases by two orders of magnitude for garnet but by an order of magnitude for diopside. Given the influence of water on the creep strength of garnet, garnet within the Higashi-akaishi mass may have become significantly as weak as clinopyroxene during deformation.