Verification test of the mean event size model for moderate earthquakes in the Kanto region, central Japan

In the Kanto region, there have been reports of decreasing b-values prior to earthquakes (M ≥ 5.5). The change of b-values is defined as the difference between the long- and short-term average earthquake magnitudes. A hazard function for moderately large earthquakes has also been proposed. This model was based on earthquakes that occurred between 1982 and 1999, and its effectiveness is measured retrospectively. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the model through the use of independent data, the verification test is based on earthquakes observed after January 2000. Through the end of 2004, the only event where there was a decrease in mean event size was observed on June 3, 2000. This decrease resulted in a log-likelihood for the proposed model 1.3 units larger than that of the Poisson model, supporting the validity of the proposed model. Without accumulating further examples, we attempted to improve the verification test by expanding the study volume and by lowering the target cutoff magnitude in order to overcome the small sample size. When two other targets from the expanded volume were added, the difference in the log-likelihood (ΔlnL) increased to 3.6. In this case, the information rate per event was about 1.2, larger than that of the model period. Lowering the cutoff magnitude increased ΔlnL to 2.5. These extended tests led to higher confidence in the model with the larger ΔlnL value than did the primary test. From the viewpoint of the per-event information rate, each case involving targets with a magnitude 5.5 and larger resulted in better performance than in the model period.     

Bulk transfer coefficient over a snow surface

The drag coefficient C _D and the bulk transfer coefficient for sensible heat C _H over a flat snow surface were determined experimentally. Theoretical considerations reveal that C _D depends on the friction velocity u _* as well as on the geometrical roughness h of the snow surface. It is found that C _D increases with increasing u _* and/or h. The dependency of C _H on u _* and h is so small that it is possible to consider C _H as a constant for practical purposes: C _{H, 1} = 2.0 × 10^–3 for a reference height of 1 m. The bulk transfer coefficient for water vapor is estimated at C _{E, 1} = 2.1 × 10^–3 for a reference height of 1 m.     

Lead coprecipitation with iron oxyhydroxide nano-particles

Pb²⁺ and Fe³⁺ coprecipitation was studied with sorption edge measurements, desorption experiments, sorbent aging, High Resolution Transmission and Analytical Electron Microscopy (HR TEM-AEM), and geochemical modeling. Companion adsorption experiments were also conducted for comparison. The macroscopic chemical and near atomic scale HRTEM data supplemented our molecule scale analysis with EXAFS (Kelly et al., 2008). Coprecipitation of Pb²⁺ with ferric oxyhydroxides occurred at ∼pH 4 and is more efficient than adsorption in removing Pb²⁺ from aqueous solutions at similar sorbate/sorbent ratios and pH. X-ray Diffraction (XRD) shows peaks of lepidocrocite and two additional broad peaks similar to fine particles of 2-line ferrihydrite (2LFh). HRTEM of the Pb-Fe coprecipitates shows a mixture of 2-6 nm diameter spheres and 8-20 by 200-300 nm needles, both uniformly distributed with Pb²⁺. Geochemical modeling shows that surface complexation models fit the experimental data of low Pb:Fe ratios when a high site density is used. Desorption experiments show that more Pb²⁺ was released from loaded sorbents collected from adsorption experiments than from Pb to Fe coprecipitates at dilute EDTA concentrations. Desorbed Pb²⁺ versus dissolved Fe³⁺ data show a linear relationship for coprecipitation (CPT) desorption experiments but a parabolic relationship for adsorption (ADS) experiments.Based on these results, we hypothesize that Pb²⁺ was first adsorbed onto the nanometer-sized, metastable, iron oxyhydroxide polymers of 2LFh with domain size of 2-3 nm. As these nano-particles assembled into larger particles, some Pb²⁺ was trapped in the iron oxyhydroxide structure and re-arranged to form solid solutions. Therefore, the CPT contact method produced more efficient removal of Pb²⁺ than the adsorption contact method, and Pb²⁺ bound in CPT solids represent a more stable sequestration of Pb²⁺ in the environment than Pb²⁺ adsorbed on iron oxyhydroxide surfaces.     

Role of end-use technologies in long-term GHG reduction scenarios developed with the BET model

In this study, we develop a new integrated assessment model called the BET model (Basic Energy systems, Economy, Environment, and End-use Technology Model). It is a multi-regional, global model based on Ramsey’s optimal growth theory and includes not only traditional end-use technologies but also advanced end-use technologies such as heat-pump water heaters and electric vehicles. Using the BET model, we conduct simulations and obtain the following results. (1) Advanced end-use technologies have an important role in containing carbon prices as well as GDP losses when GHG (greenhouse gas) constraints are stringent. (2) Electrification based on energy services progresses rapidly in scenarios with stringent GHG constraints. This is because electricity can be supplied by various methods of non-fossil power generation, and advanced end-use technologies can drastically improve energy-to-service efficiencies. The BET’s results indicate the importance of analyses that systematically combine environmental constraints, end-use technologies, supply energy technologies, and economic development.     

Depolymerized pyribole structures derived from talc by heating

Talc specimens heated to 700–1450° C were examined with an analytical high-resolution transmission electron microscope. Neither the amphibole-like structure nor the MPP structure (M = mica, P = pyroxene-layer), proposed by Avgustinik and Vigdergauz (1948) and Sueno et al. (1980), was found. On the contrary, a disordered pyribole structure was observed. This pyribole showed a structure disordered in terms of chain widths, with single and double chains predominant. A local MPP structure with 4–6 repeated units of (21) sequence was generally observed in a disordered region. The electron diffraction data were consistent with maximum symmetry A2/m for the proto-MPP structure. A HRTEM study of the fine structures associated with the depolymerization of talc was the basis of a structural model proposed for the depolymerization of biopyriboles. In this model, a pair of (010) faults with a displacement of 1/2 (a+c) took an important role. The acceptor and donor regions model was also discussed.     

Positional isomer composition of monounsaturated fatty acids from a lacustrine sediment

From the surface sediment of a eutrophic lake (Japan), the double bond position in the monounsaturated fatty acids (C₁₅-C₂₆) has been determined by combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry of the methoxylated derivatives. The relative abundance of 11-octadecenoic acid, suggested to be of bacterial origin, is higher in the chloroform-methanol extract than the extract by saponification.     

Accurate ocean tide modeling in southeast Alaska and large tidal dissipation around Glacier Bay

An accurate prediction of ocean tides in southeast Alaska is developed using a regional, barotropic ocean model with a finite difference scheme. The model skill is verified by the observational tidal harmonics in southeast Alaska including Glacier Bay. The result is particularly improved in Glacier Bay compared to the previous model described by Foreman et al. (2000). The model bathymetry dominates the model skill. We re-estimate tidal energy dissipation in the Alaska Panhandle and suggest a value for tidal energy dissipation of 3.4 GW associated with the M₂ constituent which is 1.5 times the estimation of Foreman et al. (2000). A large portion of the M₂ energy budget entering through Chatham Strait is dissipated in the vicinity of Glacier Bay. Moreover, it is shown that the developed model has the potential to correct the ocean tide loading effect in geodetic data more efficiently than the model of Foreman et al. (2000), especially around Glacier Bay.     

Use of Statistical Models to Analyze Periodic Seismicity Observed for Clusters in the Kanto Region, Central Japan

—A periodic pattern of seismicity has been reported for the Kinugawa cluster in the Kanto region, where several earthquake clusters are observed at depths between 40 and 90 km. To analyze this periodicity, statistical studies are performed for the Kinugawa cluster together with eight other clusters. Hypocentral parameters of the earthquakes with magnitudes 4.5 and larger for the period between 1950 and 1995 are taken from the JMA catalogue. The simple sinusoidal function, the exponential of sinusoidal function and the stress release model are applied as the intensity function. Model parameters are determined by the maximum likelihood method and the best model for each cluster is selected by using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In six cases the sinusoidal model or the exponential of the sinusoidal model is selected as the best option and achieves AIC reductions of values between 2.4 and 13.2 units from the simple Poisson model. The stress release model is selected for two clusters. The three clusters, the Kinugawa, Kasumigaura, and Choshi clusters, have a similar optimal period of about 10 years, and align in the northwest–southeast direction at a similar depth range of 40 to 70 km. A model modified from the stress release model is applied to the three clusters so to analyze the relationship among them. In the modified model, an earthquake occurrence in one zone increases the stress in the other zone, which is different from the original stress release model which assumes a linear increase with time. Applying the modified model to the Kinugawa cluster, an AIC reduction from the Poisson model is significantly larger than the value obtained with the sinusoidal model. This suggests that the periodic seismicity observed for the Kinugawa cluster can be explained with the more comprehensive model than the sinusoidal model.     

Processes influencing iron distribution in the coastal waters of the Tsugaru Strait,Japan

We report measurements of iron, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, humic-type fluorescence intensity and chlorophyll a concentrations in the coastal waters at the inflow (western) and outflow (eastern) ends of Tsugaru Strait (Japan) in June 2003 and 2004. Two different water masses (intensive eastward flow “subtropical Tsugaru Warm Current Water (TWCw)” and weak westward flow “subarctic Oyashio Water (OW)”) were observed at the eastern end of the strait. TWCw at the southern part of the eastern strait was vertically homogeneous with a uniform concentrations of iron (0.7–1.1 nM for labile dissolved Fe and 14–20 nM for total dissolvable Fe in 2003) as well as other chemical, biological and physical components throughout the water column of 200 m due to strong vertical mixing in the strait. The degree of mixing in the Tsugaru Warm Current (TWC) is predominantly affected by diurnal tidal current, which is strong during the period of tropical tides and weak during the period of equinoctial ones. The especially strong vertical water mixing in 2003 is caused by large dissipation energy input due to the bottom friction of passage-flow through the strait and tidal current. At the northern part of the eastern strait, the fresh surface layer overlying the OW and the deep-bottom waters in 2003 contained large concentrations of dissolved iron, resulting from iron supplied from river runoff and shelf sediments, respectively. These results suggest that the most important mechanism for transporting iron in the strait is the strong vertical water mixing due to the tidal current, and that the iron sources in the coastal waters are the organic-associated, iron-rich freshwater input into the surface water.