Validating a regional climate model’s downscaling ability for East Asian summer monsoonal interannual variability

Performance of a regional climate model (RCM), WRF, for downscaling East Asian summer season climate is investigated based on 11-summer integrations associated with different climate conditions with reanalysis data as the lateral boundary conditions. It is found that while the RCM is essentially unable to improve large-scale circulation patterns in the upper troposphere for most years, it is able to simulate better lower-level meridional moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon. For precipitation downscaling, the RCM produces more realistic magnitude of the interannual variation in most areas of East Asia than that in the reanalysis. Furthermore, the RCM significantly improves the spatial pattern of summer rainfall over dry inland areas and mountainous areas, such as Mongolia and the Tibetan Plateau. Meanwhile, it reduces the wet bias over southeast China. Over Mongolia, however, the performance of precipitation downscaling strongly depends on the year: the WRF is skillful for normal and wet years, but not for dry years, which suggests that land surface processes play an important role in downscaling ability. Over the dry area of North China, the WRF shows the worst performance. Additional sensitivity experiments testing land effects in downscaling suggest the initial soil moisture condition and representation of land surface processes with different schemes are sources of uncertainty for precipitation downscaling. Correction of initial soil moisture using the climatology dataset from GSWP-2 is a useful approach to robustly reducing wet bias in inland areas as well as to improve spatial distribution of precipitation. Despite the improvement on RCM downscaling, regional analyses reveal that accurate simulation of precipitation over East China, where the precipitation pattern is strongly influenced by the activity of the Meiyu/Baiu rainfall band, is difficult. Since the location of the rainfall band is closely associated with both lower-level meridional moisture transport and upper-level circulation structures, it is necessary to have realistic upper-air circulation patterns in the RCM as well as lower-level moisture transport in order to improve the circulation-associated convective rainfall band in East Asia.     

Decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis for reservoir development under uncertainty using multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo methods

At various stages of petroleum reservoir development, we encounter a large degree of geological uncertainty under which a rational decision has to be made. In order to identify which parameter or group of parameters significantly affects the output of a decision model, we investigate decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis and its computational issues in this paper. In particular, we employ the so-called expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) as a sensitivity index and apply multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to efficient estimation of EVPPI. In a recent paper by Giles and Goda, an antithetic MLMC estimator for EVPPI is proposed and its variance analysis is conducted under some assumptions on a decision model. In this paper, for an improvement on the performance of the MLMC estimator, we incorporate randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods within the inner sampling, which results in an multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo (MLQMC) estimator. We apply both the antithetic MLMC and MLQMC estimators to a simple waterflooding decision problem under uncertainty on absolute permeability and relative permeability curves. Through numerical experiments, we compare the performances of the MLMC and MLQMC estimators and confirm a significant advantage of the MLQMC estimator.     

Improved description of global mixed-layer depth using Argo profiling floats

A global data set describing the gridded mixed-layer depth (MLD) in 10-day intervals was produced using high-quality Argo float data from 2001 to 2009. The characteristics and advantages provided by the new MLD data set are described here, including a comparison based on two different thresholds and using data sets of different vertical and temporal resolution. The MLD in the data set was estimated on the basis of a shallower depth of the iso-thermal layer (TLD) or iso-pycnal layer (PLD), calculated using the finite difference method. The MLD data are incorporated into 2° × 2° grid in the global ocean, including marginal seas. Also, two threshold values were used to examine differences in the MLD and its seasonal temporal variability. The characteristics and advantages of using the Argo 10-day intervals to determine the MLD were then confirmed by comparing those data with the station buoy daily means and the Argo monthly means. With respect to vertical and temporal resolutions, the Argo 10-day data has two distinct advantages: (1) improved representation of the MLD vertical change due to high vertical resolution, especially during periods of large MLD variability and (2) more detailed representation of the temporal change in MLD than achieved with the Argo monthly mean data, especially from winter to spring in mid and high latitudes. These advantages were maintained in the case of a larger threshold despite the fact that the MLD is rather deep and the detailed variation in its distribution differs depending on the season and location. This study also investigated the relative influence of TLD and PLD to the MLD calculation for each grid. Generally, the MLD is primarily determined based on the PLD at low and mid latitudes (TLD > PLD), whereas the TLD is more important at high latitudes, especially in winter (TLD < PLD). In the case of a larger threshold, the area of the larger PLD influence spreads polewards because of the greater effect of salinity in winter. Although there are some differences in the effect of temperature and salinity in estimations of the MLD, both are indispensable factors for the MLD estimations even at different thresholds.     

A spectroscopic study of Epsilon Aurigae

Epsilon Aurigae has been observed during ingress and totality between 1982 and 1983 at Okayama. Analyses of profiles of H line and of radial velocities of neutral hydrogen and metals show that the secondary component consists of at least three parts in structure.Paper presented at the Lembang-Bamberg IAU Colloquium No. 80 on Double Stars: Physical Properties and Generic Relations, held at Bandung, Indonesia, 3–7 June, 1983.     

Separation and sliding between soil and structure during strong ground motion

This paper presents an approach to the problem of separation and sliding between soil and structure in the finite element analysis of dynamic soil-structure interaction problems. Joint elements are arranged along the contact surface between soil and structure and they have a property such that tensile forces are not transmitted between the planes representing structure and soil in the finite element analysis. The dynamic properties governing the sliding are determined by the Mohr-Coulomb failure law determined from the cohesion and the friction angle between soil and structure. The proposed method is applied to (i) a model of a reactor building resting on the free surface of layered ground and (ii) a buried foundation structure. The numerical computations reveal the following results: that the translation is dominant in the motion of the structure when sliding is taking place between soil and structure, and that the rocking is dominant in the rest of the response. The amplitude of the response during sliding is increased on any one point of the structure and decreased on any one point of the ground compared with that of the fixed condition at the interface. In the case of the buried structure, it is observed in the computed results that the structure and soil move in the opposite direction along the vertical contact surface and are separated from each other in the near surface region during the strong phase of the excitation.     

Nickel content of basaltic magmas: identification of primary magmas and a measure of the degree of olivine fractionation

Available NiO analyses of olivine in peridotites of probable mantle origin are consistent in giving values around 0.40 weight per cent. Assuming that basaltic magma forming from the mantle was in equilibrium with such peridotitic olivine, the NiO content of primary basaltic magmas is estimated to be about 0.030–0.050 weight per cent. The fractionation behaviour of nickel in basaltic magma due to the crystallization of olivine has been calculated using constant NiMg and FeMg exchange partition coefficients between olivine and magma. It is shown that the NiO content of both magma and olivine decreases by 50 per cent after fractional crystallization of 6–12 per cent of olivine. The nickel distribution in some basaltic rocks and olivines is examined in the light of these results, and it is suggested that basaltic magmas, such as some of the ocean-floor basalt and the Hawaiian tholeiite and alkali basalts, represent primary magmas from mantle peridotites.     

Tectonic incorporation of the upper part of oceanic crust to overriding plate of a convergent margin: An example from the Cretaceous–early Tertiary Mugi Mélange, the Shimanto Belt, Japan

A tectonic mélange exposed on land is examined to reveal relationships between mélange formation, underplating, and deformation mechanisms, focusing on the deformation of basaltic rocks. The studied Mugi Mélange of the Shimanto Belt is composed of a shale matrix surrounding various blocks of sandstone, pelagic sediments, and basalts. The mélange was formed during Late Cretaceous to early Tertiary times in a subduction zone under P–T conditions of 150–200 °C and 6–7 km depth as estimated from vitrinite reflectance and quartz veins fluid inclusions. The mélange represents a range of deformation mechanisms; pressure solution with micro-scale cataclasis in the shale matrix, brittle tension cracking in the blocks, and ubiquitous strong cataclasis in the basal portion of basaltic layers. The cataclastic deformation in the basalts suggests a breakage of a topographic high in the seismogenic depth.     

Full‐scale shaking table test for examination of safety and functionality of base‐isolated medical facilities

A series of full‐scale shaking table tests are conducted using the E‐Defense shaking table facility on a base‐isolated four‐story RC hospital structure. A variety of furniture items, medical appliances, and service utilities are placed on the hospital specimen in as realistic a manner as possible. Four ground motions are adopted, including recorded near‐fault ground motions and synthesized long‐period, long‐duration ground motions. The test results show that the base‐isolated system performed very effectively against near‐fault ground motions due to significant reduction in the floor acceleration response, and operability and functionality of the hospital service is improved significantly as compared with the case observed for the corresponding base‐fixed system. Against the long‐period ground motion, however, the hospital service is difficult to maintain, primarily because of the significant motion of furniture items and medical appliances supported by casters. Resonance accentuated large displacements and velocities on the floors of the base‐isolated system, which causes such furniture items and medical appliances to slide, sometimes more than 3 m, resulting in occasional collision with other furnitures or against the surrounding partition walls. It is notable that a key to maintaining the function of the medical facilities is to securely lock the casters of furniture and medical appliances. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.