What constitutes successful participatory disaster risk management? Insights from post-earthquake reconstruction work in rural Gujarat,India

Although for decades, public participation in disaster risk management has been strongly advocated for, in reality, it remains elusive. Planners and practitioners are still struggling to find ways to meaningfully involve the local community in disaster management programs; so far, apparently successful projects and initiatives have seldom been scaled up or replicated. The reason for this is that no comprehensive framework for participatory disaster risk management exists, and no systematic evaluation has been made to assess the necessary elements and appropriate paths for meaningful public participation in disaster management. This study attempts to examine the process and identify outcome-based factors that account for successful participatory disaster risk management. To accomplish this, we have evaluated reconstruction projects in earthquake-affected rural Gujarat, India, where the government envisioned a people-centric reconstruction project, but provided no public participation framework or guidelines. As a result, several reconstruction models pursuing different levels and types of public participation ultimately emerged. We selected three dominant reconstruction approaches and examined the extent to which various processes and outcome-based factors were successful in promoting ideal levels of public participation during these reconstruction projects. This study is considered an example of pioneering research in defining factors that account for successful participatory disaster risk management.     

Exsolved garnet-bearing pyroxene megacrysts from some South African kimberlites

Clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene megacrysts containing garnet lamellae up to 1.2 mm thick as an exsolved phase are found rarely in kimberlites from Frank Smith and Bellsbank. Chemically the clinopyroxenes are characteristically subcalcic, being within the range of 100 Ca/Ca + Mg + Fe = 27 to 36, and the orthopyroxenes are characterized by high Al₂O₃ and Cr₂O₃. Immediately after crystallization during very slow cooling, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene exsolve wide-spaced orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene phases parallel to (100) of the host phases, respectively, then both host and exsolved phases exsolve garnet lamellae. Topotactic relations between pyroxenes and garnet are determined by X-ray for the first time. Partitioning of major and minor elements among the coexisting clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and garnet in pyroxene megacrysts is the same as that of the granular-type garnet peridotite xenoliths in Lesotho and South African kimberlies. Mineralogy and chemistry indicate that subcalcic clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene megacrysts contain respectively about 10 and 3 mole % of the garnet molecule in solid solution.     

Complexes of activity of the solar cycle and very large scale convection

The magnetic field pattern associated with large scale convective motions, which are much larger than the supergranules and have been conceived as a source of maintenance of the solar differential rotation, is calculated in the framework of a slowly and differentially rotating thin spherical shell, including the effects of thermal conductivity and viscosity. The approximations of Boussinesq are used and the initial state of the magnetic field is assumed to be purely toroidal.The resulting magnetic field pattern rotates rigidly on the differentially rotating Sun with some phase delay to the convective pattern, if it is assumed that only the predominant mode with the maximum growth rate is actually realized in the solar convection zone. The obtained magnetic and convective patterns and their properties seem to explain naturally the various aspects of large scale ordering of solar activity such as the existence and behavior of complexes of activity, the rigid body rotation of proton flare active longitudes, their association with UMR's, the existence of ghost and mirror image of UMR's themselves and the fact that the rotational period derived from sunspot data is shorter than that derived spectroscopically from fluid velocity.     

Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit

This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area.