A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Enregistrement de la variabilité hydroclimatique au cours des 6500 dernières années sur le littoral de Cabo Frio (Rio de Janeiro,Brésil)

This study concerns a core collected in Brejo do Espinho's lagoon from Cabo Frio littoral (Brazil) submitted to dry influence of local upwelling controlled by north-east trade winds from the South Atlantic and particularly strengthened during El Niño events. Diatoms study supported by sedimentological and isotopic analyses shows dry phases infrequent before 4000 yr, a highly variable climatic phase between 3600 and 2900 yr and from 2400 yr onward a dryness enhancement. To cite this article: B. Laslandes et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Discrete numerical modelling of rockfill dams

The aim of this study is to obtain quantitative information on the behaviour of rockfill used in embankment dams, and particularly on the influence of block breakage on the displacement field, from a numerical analysis using the Distinct element method. A methodology is set up to define the resistance of the 2D particles so that the same probability of breaking blocks may be reproduced as in a 3D material. The model uses the discrete element code PFC^2D (Itasca Consulting Group Inc., PFC2D (Particle Flow Code in Two Dimensions), Version 3.0, 2002) and considers breakable clusters of 2D balls. The different parameters are determined from experimental data obtained from laboratory tests performed on rock blocks. The model is validated by comparing the results of the simulation of shearing tests with actual triaxial tests on rockfill material published in the literature. The numerical analysis of block crushing in an actual dam is proposed in the last part of this paper. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate variability in the Spanish Pyrenees during the last 30,000 yr revealed by the El Portalet sequence

Palynological, sedimentological and stable isotopic analyses of carbonates and organic matter performed on the El Portalet sequence (1802 m a.s.l., 42°48′00?N, 0°23′52?W) reflect the paleoclimatic evolution and vegetation history in the central-western Spanish Pyrenees over the last 30,000 yr, and provide a high-resolution record for the late glacial period. Our results confirm previous observations that deglaciation occurred earlier in the Pyrenees than in northern European and Alpine sites and point to a glacial readvance from 22,500 to 18,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the global last glacial maximum. The patterns shown by the new, high-resolution pollen data from this continental sequence, chronologically constrained by 13 AMS ¹⁴C dates, seem to correlate with the rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Abrupt events observed in northern latitudes (Heinrich events 3 to 1, Oldest and Older Dryas stades, Intra-Allerød Cold Period, and 8200 cal yr BP event) were also identified for the first time in a lacustrine sequence from the central-western Pyrenees as cold and arid periods. The coherent response of the vegetation and the lake system to abrupt climate changes implies an efficient translation of climate variability from the North Atlantic to mid latitudes.     

Late Holocene sea-level changes and isostasy in western Denmark

Cores and exposed cliff sections in salt marshes around Ho Bugt, a tidal embayment in the northernmost part of the Danish Wadden Sea, were subjected to ¹⁴C dating and litho- and biostratigraphical analyses to reconstruct paleoenvironmental changes and to establish a late Holocene relative sea-level history. Four stages in the late Holocene development of Ho Bugt can be identified: (1) groundwater-table rise and growth of basal peat (from at least 2300 BC to AD 0); (2) salt-marsh formation (0 to AD 250); (3) a freshening phase (AD 250 to AD 1600?), culminating in the drying out of the marshes and producing a distinct black horizon followed by an aeolian phase with sand deposition; and (4) renewed salt-marsh deposition (AD 1600? to present). From 16 calibrated AMS radiocarbon ages on fossil plant fragments and 4 calibrated conventional radiocarbon ages on peat, we reconstructed a local relative sea-level history that shows a steady sea-level rise of 4 m since 4000 cal yr BP. Contrary to suggestions made in the literature, the relative sea-level record of Ho Bugt does not contain a late Holocene highstand. Relative sea-level changes at Ho Bugt are controlled by glacio-isostatic subsidence and can be duplicated by a glacial isostatic adjustment model in which no water is added to the world's oceans after ca. 5000 cal yr BP.     

The simultaneous use of piles and prestressed anchors in foundation design

The paper presents a simplified design procedure to evaluate the loads in piles and prestressed anchors when simultaneously used in foundations under tension loads and high overturning moments. Although involving some necessary simplifications for the sake of design, the procedure keeps the main features of load transfer from piles and anchors to the surrounding soil. The approximate method has been adopted by the authors in relevant projects in Brazil, whose long term satisfactory performance indicates its appropriate performance. Two practical examples have been selected to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is shown that anchor prestressing plays an important role in limiting tension loads on the piles and controlling foundation eccentricity. The importance of monitoring for replacement of occasional prestress losses to prevent long-term pile overstressing is illustrated.     

The distribution of radiogenic heat production as a function of depth in the Sierra Nevada Batholith, California

Geochemical analyses and geobarometric determinations have been combined to create a depth vs. radiogenic heat production database for the Sierra Nevada batholith, California. This database shows that mean heat production values first increase, then decrease, with increasing depth. Heat production is 2 μW/m³ within the 3-km-thick volcanic pile at the top of the batholith, below which it increases to an average value of 3.5 μW/m³ at 5.5 km depth, then decreases to 0.5–1 μW/m³ at 15 km depth and remains at these values through the entire crust below 15 km. Below the crust, from depths of 40–125 km, the batholith's root and mantle wedge that coevolved beneath the batholith appears to have an average radiogenic heat production rate of 0.14 μW/m³. This is higher than the rates from most published xenolith studies, but reasonable given the presence of crustal components in the arc root assemblages. The pattern of radiogenic heat production interpreted from the depth vs. heat production database is not consistent with the downward-decreasing exponential distribution predicted from modeling of surface heat flow data. The interpreted distribution predicts a reasonable range of geothermal gradients and shows that essentially all of the present day surface heat flow from the Sierra Nevada could be generated within the 35 km thick crust. This requires a very low heat flux from the mantle, which is consistent with a model of cessation of Sierran magmatism during Laramide flat-slab subduction, followed by conductive cooling of the upper mantle for 70 m.y. The heat production variation with depth is principally due to large variations in uranium and thorium concentration; potassium is less variable in concentration within the Sierran crust, and produces relatively little of the heat in high heat production rocks. Because silica content is relatively constant through the upper 30 km of the Sierran batholith, while U, Th, and K concentrations are highly variable, radiogenic heat production does not vary directly with silica content.     

A reassessment of models for hydrocarbon generation in the Khibiny nepheline syenite complex, Kola Peninsula, Russia

Although hydrocarbon-bearing fluids have been known from the alkaline igneous rocks of the Khibiny intrusion for many years, their origin remains enigmatic. A recently proposed model of post-magmatic hydrocarbon (HC) generation through Fischer-Tropsch (FT) type reactions suggests the hydration of Fe-bearing phases and release of H₂ which reacts with magmatically derived CO₂ to form CH₄ and higher HCs. However, new petrographic, microthermometric, laser Raman, bulk gas and isotope data are presented and discussed in the context of previously published work in order to reassess models of HC generation. The gas phase is dominated by CH₄ with only minor proportions of higher hydrocarbons. No remnants of the proposed primary CO₂-rich fluid are found in the complex. The majority of the fluid inclusions are of secondary nature and trapped in healed microfractures. This indicates a high fluid flux after magma crystallisation. Entrapment conditions for fluid inclusions are 450–550 °C at 2.8–4.5 kbar. These temperatures are too high for hydrocarbon gas generation through the FT reaction. Chemical analyses of rims of Fe-rich phases suggest that they are not the result of alteration but instead represent changes in magma composition during crystallisation. Furthermore, there is no clear relationship between the presence of Fe-rich minerals and the abundance of fluid inclusion planes (FIPs) as reported elsewhere. δ¹³C values for methane range from − 22.4‰ to − 5.4‰, confirming a largely abiogenic origin for the gas. The presence of primary CH₄-dominated fluid inclusions and melt inclusions, which contain a methane-rich gas phase, indicates a magmatic origin of the HCs. An increase in methane content, together with a decrease in δ¹³C isotope values towards the intrusion margin suggests that magmatically derived abiogenic hydrocarbons may have mixed with biogenic hydrocarbons derived from the surrounding country rocks.     

A Decision Support System for the Evaluation of Eco-engineering Strategies for Slope Protection

A decision support system (DSS) has been developed to assist expert and non-expert users in the evaluation and selection of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection. This DSS combines a qualitative hazard assessment of erosion and mass movements with a detailed catalogue of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection of which the suitability is evaluated in relation to the data entered. The slope decision support system (SDSS) is a knowledge based DSS in which knowledge is stored in frames containing rules that can evaluate the available information for a project, stored as project specific information (PSI) in a data file. The advantages of such a system are that it accepts incomplete information and that the qualitative nature of the information does not instil the user with a sense of unjustified exactitude. By its multidisciplinary and progressive nature, the DSS will be of value during the initial stages of an eco-engineering project when data collection and the potential of different eco-engineering strategies are considered. The accent of the output of the DSS is on the application of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection as an environmentally-friendly solution aiding sustainable development. For its acceptance within the engineering community, the DSS needs to prove its predictive capacity. Therefore, its performance has been benchmarked against successful and unsuccessful cases of slope stabilisation using eco-engineering. The target audience and the areas of application of this DSS are reviewed and the strategies for further development in this area suggested.