Lateglacial vegetation development in Denmark – New evidence based on macrofossils and pollen from Slotseng,a small-scale site in southern Jutland

This paper presents the first unambiguous terrestrial palaeoecological record for the late glacial “Bølling warming” in Denmark. Pollen and macrofossil stratigraphies from pre-Bølling to 10,800 cal yr BP are presented from a small kettle hole in Southwest Denmark, during which the lake basin developed from an immature stage after the deglaciation to complete infilling in the early Holocene. Results show that the recently deglaciated landscape bore a discontinuous vegetation of pioneer plants. After the Bølling warming, an open Dryas octopetala-Betula nana community developed with Helianthemum oelandicum. Subarctic species were dominant and local successions were probably delayed by relatively unstable and infertile soils. There is no indication of a climate cooling during the period corresponding to the Older Dryas, but the occurrence of several drought tolerant and steppe species indicates that the period was relatively dry. In the Allerød period the Dryas-B. nana vegetation was initially replaced by an open Salix and grass dominated vegetation and some 400 years later, the first tree birches were documented presumably occupying moist and sheltered soils while drier land remained open. In the Younger Dryas period trees disappeared and the vegetation became open again and dominated by subarctic species. Following climate warming at the Younger Dryas–Holocene transition a shrub community of Empetrum and Juniperus developed. After approximately 200 years it was replaced by birch forest. Overall, the late-glacial vegetation cover had a more open and patchy character than inferred from previous pollen studies as assessment of the vegetation succession based on macrofossil evidence is essential. The inferred general vegetation development corresponds well with results of other studies in the region. Canonical ordinations (RDA) indicate that vegetation changes at the landscape scale during the Lateglacial period were driven by changes in climate, soils and competition for light.     

Hydrological field data from a modeller's perspective: Part 1. Diagnostic tests for model structure

Hydrological scientists develop perceptual models of the catchments they study, using field measurements and observations to build an understanding of the dominant processes controlling the hydrological response. However, conceptual and numerical models used to simulate catchment behaviour often fail to take advantage of this knowledge. It is common instead to use a pre‐defined model structure which can only be fitted to the catchment via parameter calibration. In this article, we suggest an alternative approach where different sources of field data are used to build a synthesis of dominant hydrological processes and hence provide recommendations for representing those processes in a time‐stepping simulation model. Using analysis of precipitation, flow and soil moisture data, recommendations are made for a comprehensive set of modelling decisions, including Evapotranspiration (ET) parameterization, vertical drainage threshold and behaviour, depth and water holding capacity of the active soil zone, unsaturated and saturated zone model architecture and deep groundwater flow behaviour. The second article in this two‐part series implements those recommendations and tests the capability of different model sub‐components to represent the observed hydrological processes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct evidence of fluid mixing in the formation of stratabound Pb–Zn–Ba–F mineralisation in the Alston Block, North Pennine Orefield (England)

The North Pennine Orefield Alston Block has produced approximately 4 Mt Pb, 0.3 Mt Zn, 2.1 Mt fluorite, 1.5 Mt barite, 1 Mt witherite, plus a substantial amount of iron ore and copper ore from predominantly vein-hosted mineralisation in Carboniferous limestones. However, a significant proportion of this production (ca. 20%) came from stratabound deposits. Though much is known about the vein mineralisation, the relationship between the veins and the stratabound mineralisation is not well-understood. New petrographic, isotopic and fluid inclusion data derived from samples of stratabound mineralisation allow us to present a unified model that addresses the genesis of both the vein and stratabound styles of mineralisation. The mineralisation can be considered in terms of three episodes:

Relativistic blast waves and synchrotron emission

Relativistic shocks can accelerate particles by the first-order Fermi mechanism; the particles then emit synchrotron emission in the post-shock gas. This process is of particular interest in the models used for the afterglow of gamma-ray bursts. In this paper we use recent results in the theory of particle acceleration at highly relativistic shocks to model the synchrotron emission in an evolving, inhomogeneous and highly relativistic flow. We have developed a numerical code that integrates the relativistic Euler equations for fluid dynamics with a general equation of state, together with a simple transport equation for the accelerated particles. We present tests of this code and, in addition, we use it to study the gamma-ray burst afterglow predicted by the fireball model, along with the hydrodynamics of a spherically-symmetric relativistic blast wave.
We find that, while broadly speaking the behaviour of the emission is similar to that already predicted with semi-analytic approaches, the detailed behaviour is somewhat different. The 'breaks' in the synchrotron spectrum behave differently with time, and the spectrum above the final break is harder than had previously been expected. These effects are due to the incorporation of the geometry of the (spherical) blast wave, along with relativistic beaming and adiabatic cooling of the energetic particles leading to a mix, in the observed spectrum, between recently injected 'uncooled' particles and the older 'cooled' population in different parts of the evolving, inhomogeneous flow.     

A three-dimensional numerical method for modelling weakly ionized plasmas

Astrophysical fluids under the influence of magnetic fields are often subjected to single- or two-fluid approximations. In the case of weakly ionized plasmas, however, this can be inappropriate due to distinct responses from the multiple constituent species to both collisional and non-collisional forces. As a result, in dense molecular clouds and protostellar accretion discs, for instance, the conductivity of the plasma may be highly anisotropic leading to phenomena such as Hall and ambipolar diffusion strongly influencing the dynamics.
Diffusive processes are known to restrict the stability of conventional numerical schemes which are not implicit in nature. Furthermore, recent work establishes that a large Hall term can impose an additional severe stability limit on standard explicit schemes. Following a previous paper, which presented the one-dimensional case, we describe a fully three-dimensional method which relaxes the normal restrictions on explicit schemes for multifluid processes. This is achieved by applying the little-known Super TimeStepping technique to the symmetric (ambipolar) component of the evolution operator for the magnetic field in the local plasma rest frame, and the new Hall Diffusion Scheme to the skew-symmetric (Hall) component.     

Projected changes in vertical temperature profiles for Australasia

The vertical temperature profile in the atmosphere reflects a balance between radiative and convective processes and interactions with the oceanic and land surfaces. Changes in vertical temperature profiles can affect atmospheric stability, which in turn can impact various aspects of weather systems. In this study, we analyzed recent-past trends of temperature over the Australian region using a homogenized monthly upper-air temperature dataset and four reanalysis datasets (NCEP, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA). We also used outputs of 12 historical and future regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the NSW/ACT (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory) Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project and 6 RCM simulations from the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) Australasian project to investigate projected changes in vertical temperature profiles. The results show that the currently observed positive trend in the troposphere and negative trend in the lower stratosphere will continue in the future with significant warming over the whole troposphere and largest over the middle to upper troposphere. The increasing temperatures are found to be latitude-dependent with clear seasonal variations, and a strong diurnal variation for the near surface layers and upper levels in tropical regions. Changes in the diurnal variability indicate that near surface layers will be less stable in the afternoon leading to conditions favoring convective systems and more stable in the early morning which is favorable for temperature inversions. The largest differences of future changes in temperature between the simulations are associated with the driving GCMs, suggesting that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in regional atmospheric temperature change.

     

Sulfur isotope distribution in Late Silurian volcanic‐hosted massive sulfide deposits of the Hill End Trough,eastern Lachlan Fold Belt,New South Wales

Volcanic‐hosted massive sulfide (VHMS) deposits of the eastern Lachlan Fold Belt of New South Wales represent a VHMS district of major importance. Despite the metallogenic importance of this terrane, few data have been published for sulfur isotope distribution in the deposits, with the exception of previously published studies on Captains Flat and Woodlawn (Captains Flat‐Goulburn Trough) and Sunny Corner (Hill End Trough). Here is presented 105 new sulfur isotope analyses and collation of a further 92 analyses from unpublished sources on an additional 12 of the VHMS systems in the Hill End Trough. Measured δ³⁴S values range from ‐7.4% to 38.3%, mainly for massive and stockwork mineralisation. Sulfur isotope signatures for polymetallic sulfide mineralisation from the Lewis Ponds, Mt Bulga, Belara and Accost deposits (group 1) are all very similar and vary from ‐1.7% to 5.9%. Ore‐forming fluids for these deposits were likely to have been reducing, with sulfur derived largely from a magmatic source, either as a direct magmatic contribution accompanying felsic volcanism or indirectly through dissolution and recycling of rock sulfide in host volcanic sequences. Sulfur isotope signatures for sulfide mineralisation from the Calula, Commonwealth, Cordillera and Kempfield deposits, Peelwood mine and Sunny Corner (group 2) are similar and have average δ³⁴S values ranging from 5.4% to 8.1%. These deposits appear to have formed from ore fluids that were more oxidising than group 1 deposits, representing a mixed contribution of sulfur derived from partial reduction of seawater sulfate, in addition to sulfur from other sources. The δ³⁴S values for massive sulfides from the John Fardy deposit are the highest in the present study and have a range of 11.9–14.5%, suggesting a greater component of sulfur of seawater origin compared to other VHMS deposits in the Hill End Trough. For barite the sulfur isotope composition for samples from the Commonwealth, Stringers and Kempfield deposits ranges from 12.6% to 38.3%. More than 75% of barite samples have a sulfur isotope composition between 23.4 and 30.6%, close to the previously published estimates of the composition of seawater sulfate during Late Silurian to earliest Devonian times, providing supporting evidence that these deposits formed concurrently with the Late Silurian volcanic event. Sulfur isotope distribution appears to be independent of the host rock unit, although there appears to be a relation linking the sulfur isotope composition of different deposits to defined centres of felsic volcanism. The Mt Bulga, Lewis Ponds and Accost systems are close to coherent felsic volcanic rocks and/or intrusions and have sulfur isotope signatures with a stronger magmatic affinity than group 2 deposits. By contrast, group 2 deposits (including John Fardy) are characterised by ³⁴S‐enrichment and a lesser magmatic signature, are generally confined to clastic units and reworked volcanogenic sediments with lesser coherent volcanics in the local stratigraphy, and are interpreted to have formed distal from the magmatic source. An exception is the Belara deposit, which is hosted by reworked felsic volcanic rocks and has a more pronounced magmatic sulfur isotope signature.     

Mapping the shadow of experience of extreme weather events

Climate change will increase the frequency and/or intensity of certain extreme weather events, and perceived experience with extreme weather may influence climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. However, the aspects of extreme events that influence whether or not people perceive that they have personally experienced them remain unclear. We investigate (1) the correspondence of reported experience of extreme weather events with documented events, and (2) how characteristics of different extreme events shape the geographic area within which people are likely to report they have experienced it—the event’s perceived “shadow of experience.” We overlay geocoded survey responses indicating personal experience with hurricanes, tornadoes, and drought—from a 2012 nationally representative survey (N?=?1,008) of U.S. residents—on maps of recorded event impacts. We find that reported experiences correspond well with recorded event impacts, particularly for hurricanes and tornadoes. Reported experiences were related to event type, proximity, magnitude and duration. The results suggest locations where disaster preparedness efforts and climate change education campaigns could be most effective after an extreme weather event.     

Nonparametric catchment clustering using the data depth function

ABSTRACT

The clustering of catchments is important for prediction in ungauged basins, model parameterization and watershed development and management. The aim of this study is to explore a new measure of similarity among catchments, using a data depth function and comparing it with catchment clustering indices based on flow and physical characteristics. A cluster analysis was performed for each similarity measure using the affinity propagation clustering algorithm. We evaluated the similarity measure based on depth–depth plots (DD-plots) as a basis for transferring parameter sets of a hydrological model between catchments. A case study was developed with 21 catchments in a diverse New Zealand region. Results show that clustering based on the depth–depth measure is dissimilar to clustering on catchment characteristics, flow, or flow indices. A hydrological model was calibrated for the 21 catchments and the transferability of model parameters among similar catchments was tested within and between clusters defined by each clustering method. The mean model performance for parameters transferred within a group always outperformed those from outside the group. The DD-plot based method was found to produce the best in-group performance and second-highest difference between in-group and out-group performance.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

A soil moisture monitoring network to assess controls on runoff generation during atmospheric river events

Soil moisture is a key modifier of runoff generation from rainfall excess, including during extreme precipitation events associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). This paper presents a new, publicly available dataset from a soil moisture monitoring network in Northern California's Russian River Basin, designed to assess soil moisture controls on runoff generation under AR conditions. The observations consist of 2-min volumetric soil moisture at 19 sites and 6 depths (5, 10, 15, 20, 50, and 100 cm), starting in summer 2017. The goals of this monitoring network are to aid the development of research applications and situational awareness tools for Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations at Lake Mendocino. We present short analyses of these data to demonstrate their capability to characterize soil moisture responses to precipitation across sites and depths, including time series analysis, correlation analysis, and identification of soil saturation thresholds that induce runoff. Our results show strong inter-site Pearson's correlations (>0.8) at the seasonal timescale. Correlations are strong (>0.8) during events with high antecedent soil moisture and during drydown periods, and weak (<0.5) otherwise. High event runoff ratios are observed when antecedent soil moisture thresholds are exceeded, and when antecedent runoff is high. Although local heterogeneity in soil moisture can limit the utility of point source data in some hydrologic model applications, our analyses indicate three ways in which soil moisture data are valuable for model design: (1) sensors installed at 6 depths per location enable us to identify the soil depth below which evapotranspiration and saturation dynamics change, and therefore choose model soil layer depths, (2) time series analysis indicates the role of soil moisture processes in controlling runoff ratio during precipitation, which hydrologic models should replicate, and (3) spatial correlation analysis of the soil moisture fluctuations helps identify when and where distributed hydrologic modelling may be beneficial.