Optimization of causative factors using logistic regression and artificial neural network models for landslide susceptibility assessment in Ujung Loe Watershed,South Sulawesi Indonesia

Landslide susceptibility maps(LSMs) play a vital role in assisting land use planning and risk mitigation. This study aims to optimize causative factors using logistic regression(LR) and an artificial neural network(ANN) to produce a LSM. The LSM is produced with 11 causative factors and then optimized using forward-stepwise LR(FSLR), ANN, and their combination(FSLR-ANN) until eight causative factors were found for each method. The ANN method produced superior validation results compared with LR. The ROC values for the training data set ranges between 0.8 and 0.9. On the other hand, validation with the percentage of landslide fall into LSM class high and very high, ANN method was higher(92.59%) than LR(82.12%). FSLR-ANN with nine causative factors gave the best validation results with respect to area under curve(AUC) values, and validation with the percentage of landslide fall into LSM class high and very high. In conclusion, ANN was found to be better than LR when producing LSMs. The best Optimization was combination of FSLR-ANN with nine causative factors and AUC success rate 0.847, predictive rate 0.844 and validation with landslide fall into high and very high class with 91.30%. It is an encouraging preliminary model towards a systematic introduction of FSLR-ANN model for optimization causative factors in landslide susceptibility assessment in the mountainous area of Ujung Loe Watershed.     

Timescale of magma chamber processes revealed by U–Pb ages,trace element contents and morphology of zircons from the Ishizuchi caldera,Southwest Japan Arc

U–Pb geochronology and trace element chemistry of zircons in a microscale analysis were applied to the Ishizuchi caldera in the Outer Zone of Southwest Japan in order to estimate the timescale of the magma process, in particular, the magma differentiation. This caldera is composed mainly of ring fault complexes, major pyroclastic flow deposits, and felsic intrusion including central plutons. Using SHRIMP‐IIe, our new U–Pb zircon ages obtained from the major pyroclastic flow deposits (Tengudake pyroclastic flow deposits), granitic rocks from central plutons (Soushikei granodiorite and Teppoishigawa quartz monzonite), and rhyolite from the outer ring dike (Tenchuseki rhyolite) and the inner ring dike (Bansyodani rhyolite) are 14.80 ±0.11 Ma, 14.56 ±0.10 Ma, 14.53 ±0.12 Ma, 14.55 ±0.11 Ma and 14.21 ±0.19 Ma, respectively. Based on the U–Pb ages, the Hf contents and the REE patterns of the zircons, three stages are recognized in the evolutionary history of the magma chamber beneath the Ishizuchi caldera: (i) climactic Tengudake pyroclastic flow eruption; (ii) Tenchuseki rhyolite intrusion into the outer ring dike and central pluton intrusion; and (iii) Bansyodani rhyolite intrusion in the inner ring dike. These results indicate a magma evolution history of the Ishizuchi caldera system which took at least ca 600 kyr from the climatic caldera‐forming eruption to the post‐caldera intrusions. Our new geochronological data suggest that the Ishizuchi caldera formed as part of the voluminous and episodic magmatism that occurred in the wide zone along the Miocene forearc basin of Southwest Japan during the inception of the young Philippine Sea Plate subduction.     

A type of second order linear ordinary differential equations with periodic coefficients for which the characteristic exponents have exact expressions

It is shown that the characteristic exponents can be exactly expressed for a type of second order linear ordinary differential equations with periodic coefficients (Hill's equation) which appear as the variational equations of certain periodic solutions of dynamical systems. Key points are the transformation of the equation to the Gauss' hypergeometric differential equation, and evaluation of the trace of monodormy matrix in the complex plane of the independent variable. Two simple examples are given for which the stability of periodic solutions is rigorously analyzed.     

Hill stability of the planar three-body problem: General and restricted cases

The equations of motion of the planar three-body problem split into two parts, called an external part and an internal part. When the third mass approaches zero, the first part tends to the equations of the Kepler motion of the primaries and the second part to the equations of motion of the restricted problem.We discuss the Hill stability from these equations of motion and the energy integral. In particular, the Jacobi integral for the circular restricted problem is seen as an infinitesimal-mass-order term of the Sundman function in this context.     

TeV γ-rays from old supernova remnants

We study the emission from an old supernova remnant (SNR) with an age of around 10⁵ yr and that from a giant molecular cloud (GMC) encountered by the SNR. When the SNR age is around 10⁵ yr, proton acceleration is efficient enough to emit TeV γ-rays both at the shock of the SNR and that in the GMC. The maximum energy of primarily accelerated electrons is so small that TeV γ-rays and X-rays are dominated by hadronic processes,  π⁰  -decay and synchrotron radiation from secondary electrons, respectively. However, if the SNR is older than several 10⁵ yr, there are few high-energy particles emitting TeV γ-rays because of the energy-loss effect and/or the wave-damping effect occurring at low-velocity isothermal shocks. For old SNRs or SNR–GMC interacting systems capable of generating TeV γ-ray emitting particles, we calculated the ratio of TeV γ-ray (1–10 TeV) to X-ray (2–10 keV) energy flux and found that it can be more than  ∼10²  . Such a source showing large flux ratio may be a possible origin of recently discovered unidentified TeV sources.     

Precursory activity in seismic belts containing the focal region of forthcoming large intraplate earthquake

Seismic activity in the region surrounding the foci is investigated for three severe earthquakes (two with a magnitude of 6.1 and one with a magnitude of 5.3) which have occurred in Japan in recent years. The most conspicuous feature commonly noticed is precursory activation of seismic belts which include the focal regions of main shocks. The repetition of the same pattern in the space-time distribution of earthquake occurrence along the seismic belt is also observed for each case. The precursory activity of seismic belts terminates in rather a short period and, after that, the area around the focus of the forthcoming large earthquake becomes quiescent, which demonstrates the appearance of the seismic gap of the second kind (Mogi, 1979). The periods of seismic quiescence for the cases investigated in this paper are longer than those which are given by the regression relationship between earthquake magnitude and precursor time proposed for example, by Sekiya (1977). However, our definition of anomalous seismic activity is clear, and it is possible to give a physical meaning to it as an increase in the local stress field in the seismic belt. We propose that a kind of coupling between intraplate tectonic blocks, analogous to interplate coupling in the subduction region, is responsible for the formation of the stress field relevant to these earthquakes. Although this is at present only one of the possible viewpoints on the formation of the focal region of large intraplate earthquakes, it may be worthwhile to study various precursory phenomena in-connection with this hypothesis.     

Wide field X-ray monitor on board the High Energy Transient Experiment (HETE)

The High-Energy Transient Experiment (HETE) is designed for the multiwavelengths study of Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) in UV, X-ray and gamma-ray range with three scientific instruments. The X-ray instrument, Wide-field X-ray Monitor (WXM), consists of four units of one-dimensional position sensitive gas proportional counters and two perpendicularly oriented one-dimensional coded apertures. The WXM has a wide FOV of 1.5 steradian together with the capability to locate GRBs with 10 arcmin accuracy, and covers photon energies of 2 to 25 keV with an energy resolution of typically 18 % at 6 keV, measuring wide band spectra together with the gamma-ray spectrometer (FREGATE). The coded X-ray image will be deconvolved on board and the GRB location will be provided to the UV camera within 1 sec . GRB locations will also be broadcast in real time to ground-based observers for follow-up observations.