Use of Statistical Models to Analyze Periodic Seismicity Observed for Clusters in the Kanto Region, Central Japan

—A periodic pattern of seismicity has been reported for the Kinugawa cluster in the Kanto region, where several earthquake clusters are observed at depths between 40 and 90 km. To analyze this periodicity, statistical studies are performed for the Kinugawa cluster together with eight other clusters. Hypocentral parameters of the earthquakes with magnitudes 4.5 and larger for the period between 1950 and 1995 are taken from the JMA catalogue. The simple sinusoidal function, the exponential of sinusoidal function and the stress release model are applied as the intensity function. Model parameters are determined by the maximum likelihood method and the best model for each cluster is selected by using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In six cases the sinusoidal model or the exponential of the sinusoidal model is selected as the best option and achieves AIC reductions of values between 2.4 and 13.2 units from the simple Poisson model. The stress release model is selected for two clusters. The three clusters, the Kinugawa, Kasumigaura, and Choshi clusters, have a similar optimal period of about 10 years, and align in the northwest–southeast direction at a similar depth range of 40 to 70 km. A model modified from the stress release model is applied to the three clusters so to analyze the relationship among them. In the modified model, an earthquake occurrence in one zone increases the stress in the other zone, which is different from the original stress release model which assumes a linear increase with time. Applying the modified model to the Kinugawa cluster, an AIC reduction from the Poisson model is significantly larger than the value obtained with the sinusoidal model. This suggests that the periodic seismicity observed for the Kinugawa cluster can be explained with the more comprehensive model than the sinusoidal model.     

Redistribution and export of contaminated sediment within eastern Fukushima Prefecture due to typhoon flooding

Tropical cyclones expose river basins to heavy rainfall and flooding, and cause substantial soil erosion and sediment transport. There is heightened interest in the effects of typhoon floods on river basins in northeast Japan, as the migration of radiocaesium‐bearing soils contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident will affect future radiation levels. The five main catchments surrounding FDNPP are the Odaka, Ukedo, Maeda, Kuma and Tomioka basins, but little quantitative modelling has been undertaken to identify the sediment redistribution patterns and controlling processes across these basins. Here we address this issue and report catchment‐scale modelling of the five basins using the GETFLOWS simulation code. The three‐dimensional (3D) models of the basins incorporated details of the geology, soil type, land cover, and used data from meteorological records as inputs. The simulation results were checked against field monitoring data for water flow rates, suspended sediment concentrations and accumulated sediment erosion and deposition. The results show that the majority of annual sediment migration in the basins occurs over storm periods, thus making typhoons the main vectors for redistribution. The Ukedo and Tomioka basins are the most important basins in the region in terms of overall sediment transport, followed by the other three basins each with similar discharge amounts. Erosion is strongly correlated with the underlying geology and the surface topography in the study area. A low permeability Pliocene Dainenji formation in the coastal area causes high surface water flow rates and soil erosion. Conversely, erosion is lower in an area with high permeability granite basement rocks between the Hatagawa and Futaba faults in the centre of the study area. Land cover is also a factor controlling differences in erosion and transport rates between forested areas in the west of the study area and predominantly agricultural areas towards the east. The largest sediment depositions occur in the Ogaki and Takigawa Dams, at the confluence of the Takase and Ukedo Rivers, and at the Ukedo River mouth. Having clarified the sediment redistribution patterns and controlling processes, these results can assist the ongoing task of monitoring radioactive caesium redistribution within Fukushima Prefecture, and contribute to the design and implementation of measures to protect health and the environment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The reduction effects of mangrove forest on a tsunami based on field surveys at Pakarang Cape,Thailand and numerical analysis

Using an integrated approach including satellite imagery analysis, field measurements, and numerical modeling, we investigated the damage to mangroves caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape in Pang Nga Province, Thailand. Comparing pre- and post-tsunami satellite imagery of the study area, we found that approximately 70% of the mangrove forest was destroyed by the tsunami. Based on field observations, we found that the survival rate of mangroves increased with increasing stem diameter. Specifically, we found that 72% of Rhizophora trees with a 25–30 cm stem diameter survived the tsunami impact, whereas only 19% with a 15–20 cm stem diameter survived. We simulated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using the nonlinear shallow-water wave theory to reproduce the tsunami inundation flow and investigated the bending moment acting on the mangrove trees. Results of the numerical model showed that the tsunami inundated areas along the mangrove creeks, and its current velocity reached 5.0 m s⁻¹. Based on the field measurements and numerical results, we proposed a fragility function for mangroves, which is the relationship between the probability of damage and the bending stress caused by the maximum bending moment. We refined the numerical model to include the damage probability of mangrove forests using the obtained fragility function to investigate the tsunami reduction effect of mangrove forest. Under simple numerical conditions related to the mangrove forest, ground level, and incident wave, the model showed that a mangrove forest of Rhizophora sp. with a density of 0.2 trees m⁻² and a stem diameter of 15 cm in a 400 m wide area can reduce the tsunami inundation depth by 30% when the incident wave is assumed to have a 3.0 m inundation depth and a wave period of 30 min at the shoreline. However, 50% of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a 4.5 m tsunami inundation depth, and most of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a tsunami inundation depth greater than 6 m. The reduction effect of tsunami inundation depth decreased when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 3 m, and was mostly lost when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 6 m.     

Seismic imaging of the Formosa Ridge cold seep site offshore of southwestern Taiwan

Multi-scale reflection seismic data, from deep-penetration to high-resolution, have been analyzed and integrated with near-surface geophysical and geochemical data to investigate the structures and gas hydrate system of the Formosa Ridge offshore of southwestern Taiwan. In 2007, dense and large chemosynthetic communities were discovered on top of the Formosa Ridge at water depth of 1125 m by the ROV Hyper-Dolphin. A continuous and strong BSR has been observed on seismic profiles from 300 to 500 ms two-way-travel-time below the seafloor of this ridge. Sedimentary strata of the Formosa Ridge are generally flat lying which suggests that this ridge was formed by submarine erosion processes of down-slope canyon development. In addition, some sediment waves and mass wasting features are present on the ridge. Beneath the cold seep site, a vertical blanking zone, or seismic chimney, is clearly observed on seismic profiles, and it is interpreted to be a fluid conduit. A thick low velocity zone beneath BSR suggests the presence of a gas reservoir there. This “gas reservoir” is shallower than the surrounding canyon floors along the ridge; therefore as warm methane-rich fluids inside the ridge migrate upward, sulfate carried by cold sea water can flow into the fluid system from both flanks of the ridge. This process may drive a fluid circulation system and the active cold seep site which emits both hydrogen sulfide and methane to feed the chemosynthetic communities.     

Air-sea gas transfer in a shallow,flowing and coastal environment estimated by dissolved inorganic carbon and dissolved oxygen analyses

We estimated gas exchange rates in Kabira Reef at Ishigaki Island, southwest Japan, using a mass balance calculation with dual “biological” tracers: dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved oxygen (DO). The nighttime results allowed us to obtain reasonable gas transfer velocity k _w values, all of which exceeded those obtained in wind-dominant studies. The difference is likely due to the contribution of turbulence generated by the interaction between the current and bottom topography. The k _w obtained during high tides is consistent with that reported by Raymond and Cole (2001), whereas k _w during low tides is significantly higher, which seems to be caused by enhanced friction with the bottom of the reef and/or bubble-induced gas transfer by wave breaking at the reef crest.     

Ecology and restoration techniques for Sargassum beds in the Seto Inland Sea,Japan

Due to the reduction and degradation of coastal areas in Japan by land reclamation and anthropogenic perturbations, from the point of view of conservation of the coastal environment, the restoration of Sargassum beds is essential. Between 1978 and 1991, 6400 ha of seagrass and seaweed beds have been lost along the Japanese coast, of which Sargassum beds were 22%. New techniques for Sargassum bed restoration are summarized based on three coastal engineering techniques. (1) Construction of shallow and gentle sloping bottom substrata have been shown to be effective for the reestablishment of 'management-free seagrass and Sargassum beds' on developed coasts. (2) Seeding or transplanting using artificial substratum for extension of nursery and fishing grounds around natural Sargassum beds. (3) Periodic transplanting of Sargassum plants using artificially produced seedlings is effective to produce niches to allow faunal re-colonization in severely polluted and sparsely vegetated area. However, prior to implementation, the suitability and limitations of these three techniques requires to be ascertained for effective Sargassum bed restoration.     

Relationships between Kuroko volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits, felsic volcanism, and island arc development in the northeast Honshu arc, Japan

The northeast (NE) Honshu arc was formed by three major volcano-tectonic events resulting from Late Cenozoic orogenic movement: continental margin volcanism (before 21?Ma), seafloor basaltic lava flows and subsequent bimodal volcanism accompanied by back-arc rifting (21 to 14?Ma), and felsic volcanism related to island arc uplift (12 to 2?Ma). Eight petrotectonic domains, parallel to the NE Honshu arc, were formed as a result of the eastward migration of volcanic activity with time. Major Kuroko volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits are located within the eastern marginal rift zone (Kuroko rift) that formed in the final period of back-arc rifting (16 to 14?Ma). Volcanic activity in the NE Honshu arc is divided into six volcanic stages. The eruption volumes of volcanic rocks have gradually decreased from 4,600?km³ (per 1?my for a 200-km-long section along the arc) of basaltic lava flows in the back-arc spreading stage to 1,000?C2,000?km³ of bimodal hyaloclastites in the back-arc rift stage, and about 200?km³ of felsic pumice eruptions in the island arc stage. The Kuroko VMS deposits were formed at the time of abrupt decrease in the eruption volume and change in the mode of occurrence of the volcanic rocks during the final period of back-arc rifting. In the area of the Kuroko rift, felsic volcanism changed from aphyric or weakly plagioclase phyric (before 14?Ma), to quartz and plagioclase phyric with minor clinopyroxene (12 to 8?Ma), to hornblende phyric (after 8?Ma), and hornblende and biotite phyric (after 4?Ma). The Kuroko VMS deposits are closely related to the aphyric rhyolitic activity before 14?Ma. The rhyolite was generated at a relatively high temperature from a highly differentiated part of felsic magma seated at a relatively great depth and contains higher Nb, Ce, and Y contents than the post-Kuroko felsic volcanism. The Kuroko VMS deposits were formed within a specific tectonic setting, at a specific period, and associated with a particular volcanism of the arc evolution process. Therefore, detailed study of the evolutional process from rift opening to island arc tectonics is very important for the exploration of Kuroko-type VMS deposits.     

Trace-element characteristics of east–west mantle geochemical hemispheres

Recent statistical analyses on the isotopic compositions of oceanic, arc, and continental basalts have revealed that the Earth's mantle is broadly divided into eastern and western hemispheres. The present study aimed to characterize the isotopically defined east–west geochemical hemispheres using trace-element concentrations. Basalt data with Rb, Sr, Nd, Sm, Pb, Th, and U in addition to the isotopic ratios ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb were selected mostly from the GEOROC and PetDB databases. A total of 4787 samples were used to investigate the global geochemical variations. The results show that the wide trace-element variations are broadly explained by the melting of melt-metasomatized and fluid-metasomatized mantle sources. The larger amount of the fluid component derived from subducted plates in the eastern hemisphere than that in the western hemisphere is inferred from the basalts. These characteristics support the hypothesis that focused subduction towards the supercontinent created the mantle geochemical hemispheres.     

Assessing a decade of phosphorus management in the Lake Mendota, Wisconsin watershed and scenarios for enhanced phosphorus management

A phosphorus (P) budget was estimated for the watershed of Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, to assess the effects of nutrient management on P accumulation in the watershed soils. We estimated how nutrient management programs and legislation have affected the budget by comparing the budget for 2007 to a budget calculated for 1995, prior to implementation of the programs. Since 1995, inputs decreased from 1,310,000 to 853,000 kg P/yr (35% reduction) and accumulation decreased from 575,000 to 279,000 kg P/yr (51% reduction). Changes in P input and accumulation were attributed primarily to enhanced agricultural nutrient management, reduction in dairy cattle feed supplements and an urban P fertilizer ban. Four scenarios were investigated to determine potential impacts of additional nutrient management tactics on the watershed P budget and P loading to Lake Mendota. Elimination of chemical P fertilizer input has the greatest potential to reduce watershed P accumulation and establishment of riparian buffers has the greatest potential to prevent P loading to Lake Mendota.     

Calcareous duricrust, Al Qasim Province, Saudi Arabia: Occurrence and origin

In Al Qasim Province, Saudi Arabia, calcareous pedogenic duricrust overlies the Upper Permian carbonates and clays of the Khuff Formation, and ranges in thickness from 60 cm to 2 m. It consists of white sandy duricrust capped by brown, nodular porous duricrust. Petrographic investigation led to recognition of three lithofacies that show spatial distribution: 1- structureless sandy calcareous mudstone, 2- brecciated-nodular calcareous mudstone, and 3- pisolitic calcareous mudstone. The diagenetic changes in duricrust are aggrading neomorphism and formation of calcite rims around quartz grains. Microprobe chemical analysis was performed on the diagenetically altered material. The development of the duricrust is controlled by four factors: the climate changes, the type of underlying rocks, source of carbonate and biological effects. The repeated changes from semi-arid climate with alternating wet and dry seasons are the main controlling factor, in generation of duricrust development. During humid periods, descending water carries the dissolved carbonates downward as bicarbonates, whereas dry and interpluvial period, the carbonate-rich solutions are carried upwards by capillary or evaporation. The claystone and sandstone interbeds possibly affect the development of calcareous duricrust, more than the sandstones and dolostones, because the former have the ability to attach calcium carbonate to form the duricrust. The development of calcareous duricrust is mainly attributed to the Pleistocene and Early Holocene alternating humid and arid periods that prevailed over the Arabian Peninsula during this time.