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771.
Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that induce changes in the Earth’s climate affect particular variables and locations differently. A key part of this difference is the timescale at which this change takes place, which will eventually have important consequences for adaptation requirements. This idea of timescale associated with climate change has been used several times in the past to estimate the urgency of adaptation in particular regions. The definition of climate-change timescale is, however, not unique. For example, we can think of it in terms of an expected trend (e.g. in temperature) reaching a given threshold, or think of it in terms of the time it may take this trend to become statistically significant. We may also wonder about the validity of this speculation given that, due to natural variability, the expected trend may in fact not be realized. In this article we explore alternative ways of defining the timescale of climate-change, compare their properties, and illustrate them with an example for the case of projected surface temperature over North America. It is shown that these timescales are analytically related but may differ substantially in magnitude under certain conditions. In particular, it is shown that climate change impact on vulnerable systems may arrive before statistical detection of the variable’s trend takes place. This fact may have implications on how climate change impacts are seen by those with diverging interests. 相似文献
772.
Numerical groundwater modelling as an effective tool for management of water resources in arid areas
Mohamed El Alfy 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1259-1274
AbstractGroundwater, possibly of fossil origin, is used for water supply in some arid regions where the replenishment of groundwater by precipitation is low. Numerical modelling is a helpful tool in the assessment of groundwater resources and analysis of future exploitation scenarios. To quantify the groundwater resources of the East Owienat area in the southwest of the Western Desert, Egypt, the present study assesses the groundwater resources management of the Nubian aquifer. Groundwater withdrawals have increased in this area, resulting in a disturbance of the aquifer’s natural equilibrium, and the large-scale and ongoing depletion of this critical water reserve. Negative impacts, such as a decline in water levels and increase in salinity, have been experienced. The methodology includes application of numerical groundwater modelling in steady and transient states under different measured and abstraction scenarios. The numerical simulation model developed was applied to assess the responses of the Nubian aquifer water level under different pumping scenarios during the next 30 years. Groundwater management scenarios are evaluated to find an optimal management solution to satisfy future needs. Based on analysis of three different development schemes that were formulated to predict the future response of the aquifer under long-term water stress, a gradual increase in groundwater pumping to 150% of present levels should be adopted for protection and better management of the aquifer. Similar techniques could be used to improve groundwater management in other parts of the country, as well as other similar arid regions.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor X. Chen 相似文献
773.
ABSTRACTA database of 88 superficial sediment samples, distributed in space and time, was collected from the Sidi Chahed Dam (northeast of Meknes city, Morocco) and from four other reference stations (in the same region) located in supposedly uncontaminated environments. Analyses were focused on the physico-chemical characteristics and concentrations of heavy metals (Fe, Mn, As, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Cd). The database was processed by advanced statistical analysis techniques. The method of classification by self-organizing maps (SOM) was used, permitting understanding and visualization of the spatial and temporal distribution of samples. Principal component analysis (PCA) and SOM hierarchical classification (SOM-HC) were used to validate the classification and detect seasonal variations in heavy metal concentrations. Dependencies between different metal tracers were considered and their spatio-temporal distribution is shown, together with the ranking of clusters, according to their pollution levels. Thus, autumn samples were the only ones with high concentrations of As, compared to the four reference stations. This is due to leaching of bare soil by the first stormy rains of autumn. In winter and spring samples, the concentrations of tracers Mn, Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Cr were relatively high compared to those of the reference stations. Summer sample concentrations were most comparable with the reference stations, probably due to the scarcity of rainfall and runoff in this season.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor E. Gargouri 相似文献
774.
There are two main granitic rocks cropping out in the study area:1) the syn-orogenic granites are moderately weathered,jointed,exfoliated and characterized by low relief.These rocks are subdivided into tonalite and granodiorite.They are essentially composed of plagioclase,quartz,biotite,hornblende and potash feldspar;and 2) the post-orogenic granites,characterized by high relief terrain and represented by monzogranite,syenogranite and alkali granite.The monzogranites suffered hydrothermal alteration in particular along joints,faults,shear zones and fractures,which recorded the highest values of radioactivity,reflecting the role of post-magmatic alteration processes in the enhancement of radioactivity.The hydrothermal alteration(desilicification and hematitization) resulted in the formation of mineralized(altered) granites.The altered granites are enriched in TiO 2,Al 2 O 3,FeO T,MnO,MgO,Na 2 O,Rb,Sr,Y,Zr,Zn,Ga and Co and depleted in SiO 2,CaO,P 2 O 5,Nb,Pb,Cu,Ni and Cr relative to the fresh monzogranite.The investigated granites contain basic xenoliths as well as pockets of pegmatites.Perthites,quartz,plagioclase and sometimes biotite,represent the essential constituents.Some accessory minerals like zircon are metamicted reflecting their radiogenic nature.The alkali granites are characterized by the presence of aegirine,rebeckite and arfvedsonite.Both syn-and post-orogenic granites show some variations in their bulk chemical compositions.The older granitoids are metaluminous and exhibit characteristics of I-type granites and possess an arc tectonic environment.On the other hand,the younger granites are peraluminous and exhibit the characteristics of post-collisional granites.It is interpreted that radioactivity of the studied rocks is mainly controlled by both magmatic and post-magmatic activities.Frequently,the post-orogenic granites host zoned and unzoned pegmatite pockets.Some of these pockets anomalously attain high radioactivity.The syenogranites and the pegmatites are characterized by high contents of SiO 2 and K 2 O and low CaO and MgO.They have transitional characters from highly fractionated calc-alkaline to alkaline.The alkali granites related to A2-subtype of A-type granites.The post-orogenic granites were originated from magma of dominant crustal source materials and related to post-collisional setting under extensional environment. 相似文献
775.
Fadi Chaaban Hanan Darwishe Barbara Louche Yvonne Battiau-Queney Eric Masson Jamal El Khattabi Erick Carlier 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(1):183-193
The use of geographic information system (GIS) minimizes the effort and improves the efficiency of numerical models. The GIS
provides a platform for high capacity collection, management, manipulation, analysis, modeling and display of spatial data.
The conceptual model is created using GIS objects including points, arcs and polygons so that it can accurately represent
real world condition. According to the research problem, the geographical model is based on Hypergraph Based Data Structure
method, and a conceptual data model has been created from which a physical data model was elaborated in ArcGIS9.3 platform.
The groundwater modeling system (GMS) provides a powerful tool for hydrodynamics modeling and it is able to solve complex
problems such as the groundwater flow and seawater intrusion. The sand-dune system of Hardelot-Plage (North of France) suffers
from a lack of well-developed foredune. This problem is linked to the almost constant saturation of beach sand which is the
potential source of dune nourishment. In the south of Hardelot, the coastline is slowly, but constantly retreating. To remedy
this situation, a coupling between a GIS and GMS was adopted, in order to find the possible scenarios which could lower the
piezometric surface in the concerned area and allow dune nourishment again. The GMS used supports the Modflow-2000 code. A
direct approach to designing Modflow finite difference model is tedious and less intuitive, specifically for complex boundary
and initial conditions. Therefore, a Modflow model can be developed either using a grid or conceptual model approach. The
preparation of input data modeling is tedious and takes a long time. The model created in GMS was calibrated against the historical
and observed water level data for 1995–2006. Then a hydrodispersive model (MT3d code in GMS) was launched for evaluating sea-water
intrusion. The model was run to generate groundwater and salt concentration scenario during pumping tests. 相似文献
776.
Ibrahim A. Salem Mohamed E. Ibrahim Mohamed Abd El Monsef 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2012,5(3):385-406
The present work deals with the geology, mineralogy, geochemistry, and origin of the metagabbroic-hosted manganese deposits at Wadi Maliek in the southern Eastern Desert of Egypt. The manganese veins are found in the shear zones and channel ways of the fault planes within the metagabbroic rocks pointing to those hydrothermal solutions carrying manganese and iron load penetrating along these fractures. These faults are striking N 80° E?CS 80° W with dipping 65°. These veins vary in thickness from 15?cm up to 125?cm wide; each vein may show difference in thickness from bottom to top. Microscopic examinations, X-ray diffraction, infrared spectral, differential thermal (DTA), thermogravimetric (TGA), and ESEM-EDAX analyses revealed that the manganese minerals consist mainly of pyrolusite, psilomelane, and ramsdellite. Goethite and hematite are the common iron minerals. Petrographically, the manganese deposits can be classified into three ore types based on the predominance of manganese and iron minerals: manganese, manganese?Ciron, and iron ore types. The geochemistry of Maliek deposits indicated that the total averages of some major oxides in manganese, manganese?Ciron, and iron ore types are respectively as follows: SiO2 (15.64%, 11.52%, and 20.58%), MnO (39.9%, 17.81%, and 0.77%), FeO* (7.13%, 33.31%, and 37.08%), CaO (5.89%, 5.82%, and 5.32%), and Na2O (1.04%, 1.61%, and 1.53%). With regard to trace elements, the Maliek manganese deposits are rich in Zn, Ba, Pb, Sr, and V. Based on the geological, mineralogical, and geochemical results, the studied manganese deposits are considered to be precipitated from hydrothermal solution. 相似文献
777.
Groundwater characterization and quality assessment,and sources of pollution in Madinah,Saudi Arabia
Groundwater quality in the Madinah city is increasingly endangered by expanding urbanization, industrial activities, and intensified agricultural land use. In order to investigate the pollution of Madinah groundwater resources, 32 samples have been gathered and examined for major, trace, and nutrient components. Results of groundwater characterization and groundwater quality assessment show that Na+ and Cl? are the main anion and cation in the groundwater, respectively. Depletion of HCO3 that interacts with water increases salinity. Cluster analysis and principal component analysis were applied in the current study to obtain relationship between parameters and sampling site in order to identify the factors and sources influencing groundwater quality. The CA allowed the formation of three clusters between the sampling wells reflecting differences on water quality at different locations. Four major PCs were extracted, which accounted 86.05 % variance of the original data structure. Forty-four percent of the groundwater samples have high values of NO3, due to human and agricultural activities. Four samples in the southwestern part of the study area show high content of Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, As, and Al. This may be due to the influence of anthropogenic activities that resulted from the southwestern industrial area of Madinah. The present study illustrates explicitly the stress on groundwater quality and its vulnerability in the aquifer system. 相似文献
778.
Abdel-Galil A. Hewaidy Medhat M. M. Mandur Sherif Farouk Ibrahim S. El Agroudy 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(2):159
Lower to Middle Miocene successions in three offshore wells named GS 160-2, QQ-89, and Ras Elush-2 located in the central and southern parts of the Gulf of Suez were examined for their planktonic foraminifera, calcareous nannofossil assemblages, and paleoenvironments. These successions are subdivided from older to younger into Aquitanian Nukhul, Burdigalian-Langhian Rudeis, Langhian Kareem, and Serravallian Belayim formations. The identified foraminifera includes 54 benthic species belonging to 25 genera and 47 planktonic species belonging to 11 genera, in addition to 64 calcareous nannofossil species belonging to 21 genera. The stratigraphic distribution of these assemblages suggests classifying the studied successions into seven planktonic foraminiferal and six calcareous nannoplankton biozones. The planktonic foraminiferal and calcareous nannoplankton biozones are integrated. Different environments ranging from shallow inner to outer shelf are recognized. This is based on quantitative analyses of foraminifera including benthic biofacies, planktonic/benthonic ratio, and diversity. Syn-rift tectonics played an important role in configuration of the Miocene depositional history in the Gulf of Suez region. 相似文献
779.
Luigi A. Solari Fernando Ortega-Gutiérrez Mariano Elías-Herrera Carlos Ortega-Obregón Consuelo Macías-Romo Margarita Reyes-Salas 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(5):1301-1315
The Oaxacan Complex is the largest exposure of Grenvillian-age rocks in Mexico, constituting the backbone of the Oaxaquia microcontinent. Whereas the main rock-forming events were previously established at 1,150–1,200 Ma (charnockite–syenite–gabbros), 1,020 Ma (AMCG suite), 990 Ma (granulite-facies metamorphism), and ca. 970 Ma post-tectonic pegmatites, no data are yet available to establish provenance links with other Grenville-age terranes. In this work, we studied detrital zircons belonging to 12 samples, all metamorphosed under granulite facies but variably affected by retrogression. Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry U–Pb geochronology was employed on selected zircons to determine their crystallization age and geochemistry. The results of the analysis of about 100 crystals per sample show that the studied zircons range between ca. 940 and 1,400 Ma, with only three samples having zircons between 1,400 and 1,600 Ma, and only one showing older zircons up to ca. 1,775 Ma. Whereas some of the slightly discordant (1–5 %) zircons in several samples show ages younger than the granulite metamorphism (probably as a result of Pb loss), and thus a disturbed geochemical pattern (abnormal enrichment in LREE, decreasing HREE), a few metamorphic zircons show flat and depleted HREE patterns, contrasting with the igneous pattern of older zircons (positive Ce anomaly, negative Eu anomaly, enriched HREE pattern). The main distributions observed using the kernel density estimator diagrams fall in the range 975–995 Ma (six samples), 1,100 Ma (four samples) and 1,120–1,170 Ma (six samples). Only the southernmost sample shows a marked peak at ca. 1,400 Ma. The application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) statistical test to the studied samples and particularly the comparison of obtained P values yield interesting similarities. Overall, two sample groups show internal similarities, i.e., they may belong to the same source area, whereas only one sample is dissimilar, failing to pass the K–S test. Comparison of these data with the timing of comparable events in the Sveconorwegian orogens, the Sunsas and Rondonia-San Ignacio belts of Amazonia, and some of the Precambrian massifs cropping out in the Andes help to constrain possible Mesoproterozoic conjugate margins of Oaxaquia. 相似文献
780.
Sustainable groundwater resource management can only be achieved if planning processes address the basic dynamics of the groundwater system. Conceptual and distributed groundwater models do not necessarily translate into an understanding of how a plan might operate in reality. Prompted by Australian experiences, ‘iterative closed-question modelling’ has been used to develop a process of iterative dialogue about management options, objectives and knowledge. Simple hypothetical models of basic system dynamics that satisfy agreed assumptions are used to stress-test the ability of a proposed management plan to achieve desired future conditions. Participants learn from models in which a plan succeeds and fails, updating their assumptions, expectations or plan. Their new understanding is tested against further hypothetical models. The models act as intellectual devices that confront users with new scenarios to discuss. This theoretical approach is illustrated using simple one and two-cell groundwater models that convey basic notions of capture and spatial impacts of pumping. Simple extensions can address uncertain climate, managed-aquifer recharge and alternate water sources. Having learnt to address the dynamics captured by these models, participants may be better placed to address local conditions and develop more effective arrangements to achieve management outcomes. 相似文献