Application of data assimilation for improving forecast of water levels and residual currents in Singapore regional waters

Hydrodynamic models are commonly used for predicting water levels and currents in the deep ocean, ocean margins and shelf seas. Their accuracy is typically limited by factors, such as the complexity of the coastal geometry and bathymetry, plus the uncertainty in the flow forcing (deep ocean tide, winds and pressure). In Southeast Asian waters with its strongly hydrodynamic characteristics, the lack of detailed marine observations (bathymetry and tides) for model validation is an additional factor limiting flow representation. This paper deals with the application of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based data assimilation with the purpose of improving the deterministic model forecast. The efficacy of the EnKF is analysed via a twin experiment conducted with the 2D barotropic Singapore regional model. The results show that the applied data assimilation can improve the forecasts significantly in this complex flow regime.     

Ecohydrographic constraints on biodiversity and distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton in coral reefs of the Red Sea,Saudi Arabia

An integral concept of ecological research is the constraint of biodiversity along latitudinal and environmental gradients. The Red Sea features a natural example of a latitudinal gradient of salinity, temperature and nutrient richness. Coral reefs along the Red Sea coasts are supported with allochthonous resources such as oceanic and neritic phytoplankton and zooplankton; however, relatively little is known about how the ecohydrography correlates with plankton biodiversity and abundance. In this article we present the biodiversity of phytoplankton and zooplankton in Red Sea coral reefs. Oceanographic data (temperature, salinity), water samples for nutrient analysis, particulate organic matter, phytoplankton and zooplankton, the latter with special reference to Copepoda (Crustacea), were collected at nine coral reefs over ~1500 km distance along the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia. The trophic state of ambient waters [as indicated by chlorophyll a (Chl a)] changed from strong oligotrophy in the north to mesotrophy in the south and was associated with increasing biomasses of Bacillariophyceae, picoeukaryotes and Synechococcus as indicated by pigment fingerprinting (CHEMTAX) and flow cytometry. Net‐phytoplankton microscopy revealed a Trichodesmium erythraeum (Cyanobacteria) bloom north of the Farasan Islands. Several potentially harmful algae, including Dinophysis miles and Gonyaulax spinifera (Dinophyceae), were encountered in larger numbers in the vicinity of the aquaculture facilities at Al Lith. Changes in zooplankton abundance were mainly correlated to the phytoplankton biomass following the latitudinal gradient. The largest zooplankton abundance was observed at the Farasan Archipelago, despite high abundances of copepodites, veligers (Gastropoda larvae) and Chaetognatha at Al Lith. Although the community composition changed over latitude, biodiversity indices of phytoplankton and zooplankton did not exhibit a systematic pattern. As this study constitutes the first current account of the plankton biodiversity in Red Sea coral reefs at a large spatial scale, the results will be informative for ecosystem‐based management along the coastline of Saudi Arabia.     

Evaluating the Ability of CRCM5 to Simulate Mixed Precipitation

Precipitation episodes in the form of freezing rain and ice pellets represent natural hazards affecting eastern Canada during the cold season. These types of precipitation mainly occur in the St. Lawrence River valley and the Atlantic provinces of Canada. This study aims to evaluate the ability of the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), using a 0.11° horizontal grid mesh, to hindcast mixed precipitation when driven by reanalyses produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) for a 35-year period. In general, the CRCM5 simulation slightly overestimates the occurrence of freezing rain, but the geographical distribution is well reproduced. The duration of freezing rain events and accompanying surface winds in the Montréal region are reproduced by CRCM5. A case study is performed for an especially catastrophic freezing-rain event in January 1998; the model succeeds in simulating the intensity and duration of the episode, as well as the propitious meteorological environment. Overall, the model is also able to reproduce the climatology and a specific event of freezing rain and ice pellets.     

Relationships between climatic factors and flower and boll production in Egyptian cotton (Gossypium barbadense)

Fruiting of cotton plant is determined and influenced by cultivar, climatic conditions, management practices and pests. An understanding of the flowering and boll retention patterns of cotton cultivars can contribute to more efficient and economical crop management. The objective of this investigation was to study the effect of various climatic factors on flower and boll production of Egyptian cotton. This could be used in formulating advanced predictions of the effect of certain climatic conditions on the production of Egyptian cotton. Two uniform field trials, using cotton Gossypium barbadense cv. Giza 75 were carried out in 1992 and 1993 at the Agricultural Research Station, Agricultural Research Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Giza, Egypt, to investigate the relationships between climatic factors, flower and boll production. Climatic factors included maximum and minimum air temperatures along with their difference, evaporation, surface soil temperature (grass temperature or green cover temperature) at 0600 and 1800 h°C⁻¹, sunshine duration, maximum and minimum humidity and wind speed. The effects of climatic factors on flower and boll production were quantified in the absence of water and nutritional deficits and damage effects of insects. Results obtained indicate that evaporation, sunshine duration, humidity, surface soil temperature at 1800 h, and maximum air temperature, were the important climatic factors that significantly affect flower and boll production of Egyptian cotton. Consequently, applying appropriate specific cultural practices that minimize the deleterious effect of these factors will lead to an improvement in cotton yield.     

Anhydrite pseudomorphs and the origin of stratiform Cu–Co ores in the Katangan Copperbelt (Democratic Republic of Congo)

The stratiform Cu–Co ore mineralisation in the Katangan Copperbelt consists of dispersed sulphides and sulphides in nodules and lenses, which are often pseudomorphs after evaporites. Two types of pseudomorphs can be distinguished in the nodules and lenses. In type 1 examples, dolomite precipitated first and was subsequently replaced by Cu–Co sulphides and authigenic quartz, whereas in type 2 examples, authigenic quartz and Cu–Co sulphides precipitated prior to dolomite and are coarse-grained. The sulphur isotopic composition of the copper–cobalt sulphides in the type 1 pseudomorphs is between −10.3 and 3.1‰ relative to the Vienna Canyon Diablo Troilite, indicating that the sulphide component was derived from bacterial sulphate reduction (BSR). The generation of during this process caused the precipitation and replacement of anhydrite by dolomite. A second product of BSR is the generation of H₂S, resulting in the precipitation of Cu–Co sulphides from the mineralising fluids. Initial sulphide precipitation occurred along the rim of the pseudomorphs and continued towards the core. Precipitation of authigenic quartz was most likely induced by a pH decrease during sulphide precipitation. Fluid inclusion data from quartz indicate the presence of a high-salinity (8–18 eq. wt.% NaCl) fluid, possibly derived from evaporated seawater which migrated through the deep subsurface. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of dolomite in type 1 nodules range between 0.71012 and 0.73576, significantly more radiogenic than the strontium isotopic composition of Neoproterozoic marine carbonates (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.7056–0.7087). This suggests intense interaction with siliciclastic sedimentary rocks and/or the granitic basement. The low carbon isotopic composition of the dolomite in the pseudomorphs (−7.02 and −9.93‰ relative to the Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite, V-PDB) compared to the host rock dolomite (−4.90 and +1.31‰ V-PDB) resulted from the oxidation of organic matter during BSR.     

Present recharge of an aquifer in a semi-arid region: an example from the Turonian limestones of the Errachidia basin, Morocco

 The Errachidia basin is composed of three superposed aquifers (Senonian, Turonian limestones and Infracenomanian). The Liassic limestone of the upper Atlas borders the northern part of the basin. The piezometric map of the Turonian aquifer displays a north-south flow, with an inflow area from the Atlas. This recharge hypothesis is demontrated by a discriminant analysis performed on chemical data: the majority of the spots are of sodium choride and hydrogenocarbonate types, while several boreholes are assigned to a calcium hydrogenocarbonate type Jurassic component. ¹⁸O measurements, using the Atlasic gradient δ¹⁸O=–4.18–0.0027 x elevation to estimate the recharge areas, confirm that the recharge area is the basin itself (<1100 m) on the Turonian outcrops, while in the confined part, the Turonian is recharged higher than 1400 m (corresponding to the Atlas). This contribution ranges from 56 to 85%, according to the situation versus the piezometric inflow area. The remainder represents infiltration and vertical leakage from the Senonian layers.     

Groundwater Recharge Rate and Zone Structure Estimation Using PSOLVER Algorithm

The quantification of groundwater recharge is an important but challenging task in groundwater flow modeling because recharge varies spatially and temporally. The goal of this study is to present an innovative methodology to estimate groundwater recharge rates and zone structures for regional groundwater flow models. Here, the unknown recharge field is partitioned into a number of zones using Voronoi Tessellation (VT). The identified zone structure with the recharge rates is associated through a simulation‐optimization model that couples MODFLOW‐2000 and the hybrid PSOLVER optimization algorithm. Applicability of this procedure is tested on a previously developed groundwater flow model of the Tahtal? Watershed. Successive zone structure solutions are obtained in an additive manner and penalty functions are used in the procedure to obtain realistic and plausible solutions. One of these functions constrains the optimization by forcing the sum of recharge rates for the grid cells that coincide with the Tahtal? Watershed area to be equal to the areal recharge rate determined in the previous modeling by a separate precipitation‐runoff model. As a result, a six‐zone structure is selected as the best zone structure that represents the areal recharge distribution. Comparison to results of a previous model for the same study area reveals that the proposed procedure significantly improves model performance with respect to calibration statistics. The proposed identification procedure can be thought of as an effective way to determine the recharge zone structure for groundwater flow models, in particular for situations where tangible information about groundwater recharge distribution does not exist.     

Filling gaps in time series of space-geodetic positioning

Several methods of time series analysis and forecasting require data at regular time intervals. But in space geodesy, most datasets are often full of gaps, resulting for example from hardware issue, modification of models, change of analysis strategy, and local geophysical phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to fill the gaps in time series of space-geodetic station positions, by the use of two different approaches: the iterative singular spectrum analysis (ISSA) and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN). In order to test the efficiency of the proposed methods to properly process missing data, we created synthetic gaps at random points in regular time series (i.e., time series without gaps) of Global Positioning System (GPS) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) station positions with data span longer than 4 years. For each analyzed time series, we created gaps (by removing successive points) of different lengths ranging from 1 to 52 gaps, and then, we filled these gaps by ISSA, GRNN, and other classical methods of interpolation such as nearest neighbor, linear, and cubic interpolations.The interpolation precision was evaluated by the technique of cross-validation which compares the estimated values with the original data. After several simulations on position time series with different lengths, we found that the ISSA technique provides better results in terms of root mean square error.     

Hydrothermal alteration and evolution of Zr-Th-U-REE mineralization in the microgranite of Wadi Ras Abda,North Eastern Desert,Egypt

Ras Abda plutonic suite, North Eastern Desert of Egypt, consists predominantly of Neoproterozoic calc-alkaline older granites. Minor exposures of pink microgranite are occurring along Wadi Ras Abda within the older granites. Previous studies on this area demonstrated that the microgranite is altered in some parts and contains anomalous concentrations of rare metal elements (Zr, Th, and U). These altered and mineralized zones are re-assessed using field observations, chemical analysis, and by the application of various transmitted light and electron microscopic techniques. The rare metals exist as mineral segregation grew freely into open cavities of the microgranite and concordant with the NNE strike-slip fault movement. The mineralized zones contain an assemblage of secondary magnetite, zircon, uranothorite, columbite-(Mn), fergusonite-(Y), and allanite-(Ce). The extreme abundance of zircon in the mineralized zone, along with other evidence, indicates a hydrothermal origin of this zircon together with associated rare metals. The geochemical investigation and mass balance calculations revealed extreme enrichment of Zr, Th, U, Y, Nb, Ta, and REE. Post-magmatic hydrothermal alterations resulted in such pronounced chemical and mineralogical heterogeneity. The hydrothermal fluids are thought to be oxidizing, alkaline and of medium temperature (>?250 °C). The average contents of the elements Zr (1606 ppm), Th (1639 ppm), U (306 ppm), Nb (955 ppm), and REE (1710 ppm) in the mineralized microgranite reach sub-economic levels and could be a potential source of these elements.