Bioenergy potentials from forestry in 2050

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the global energy production potential of woody biomass from forestry for the year 2050 using a bottom-up analysis of key factors. Woody biomass from forestry was defined as all of the aboveground woody biomass of trees, including all products made from woody biomass. This includes the harvesting, processing and use of woody biomass. The projection was performed by comparing the future demand with the future supply of wood, based on existing databases, scenarios, and outlook studies. Specific attention was paid to the impact of the underlying factors that determine this potential and to the gaps and uncertainties in our current knowledge. Key variables included the demand for industrial roundwood and woodfuel, the plantation establishment rates, and the various theoretical, technical, economical, and ecological limitations related to the supply of wood from forests. Forests, as defined in this study, exclude forest plantations. Key uncertainties were the supply of wood from trees outside forests, the future rates of deforestation, the consumption of woodfuel, and the theoretical, technical, economical, or ecological wood production potentials of the forests. Based on a medium demand and medium plantation scenario, the global theoretical potential of the surplus wood supply (i.e., after the demand for woodfuel and industrial roundwood is met) in 2050 was calculated to be 6.1 Gm³ (71 EJ) and the technical potential to be 5.5 Gm³ (64 EJ). In practice, economical considerations further reduced the surplus wood supply from forests to 1.3 Gm³ year⁻¹ (15 EJ year⁻¹). When ecological criteria were also included, the demand for woodfuel and industrial roundwood exceeded the supply by 0.7 Gm³ year⁻¹ (8 EJ year⁻¹). The bioenergy potential from logging and processing residues and waste was estimated to be equivalent to 2.4 Gm³ year⁻¹ (28 EJ year⁻¹) wood, based on a medium demand scenario. These results indicate that forests can, in theory, become a major source of bioenergy, and that the use of this bioenergy can, in theory, be realized without endangering the supply of industrial roundwood and woodfuel and without further deforestation. Regional shortages in the supply of industrial roundwood and woodfuel can, however, occur in some regions, e.g., South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa.     

Time mean and variability of the scale-decomposed atmospheric water budget in a 25-year simulation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model over North America

The scaled-decomposed atmospheric water budget over North America is investigated through the analysis of 25 years of simulation by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) driven by the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses for the period 1975–1999. The time average and time variability of the atmospheric water budget for the winter and summer seasons are decomposed into their large-scale and small-scale components to identify the added value of the regional model. For the winter season, the intra-seasonal transient-eddy variance is the main temporal variability. The large- and small-scale terms are of the same order of magnitude, and are large over both coasts and weak over the continent. For the summer season, the time–mean atmospheric water budget is rather different to that of winter, with maximum values over the south-eastern part of the continent. The summer intra-seasonal variance is about twice stronger than in winter and also dominates the variability, but the inter-monthly variance is non-negligible and can be in part associated to North American Monsoon System. Over the continent, the intra-seasonal climatological variance is dominated by the variability of the small scales. The small scales, that is those scales that are only resolved in the regional model but not in the reanalyses, contribute to the added value in a regional climate simulation. In the winter season, the added value of the CRCM is large and dominated by oceanic forcing, while in summer, it is dominant (larger than the large scales) and controlled mainly by convective processes.     

Occurrence and Resistance of Pathogenic Bacteria Along the Tietê River Downstream of São Paulo in Brazil

The load of pathogenic bacteria, their fate and their dangerousness in the Tietê River were assessed along 100 km starting from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The data were compared with those from two German rivers. High loads of pathogens were found in the Tietê River near the city of São Paulo (Escherichia coli O157:H7, Shigella flexneri, and Shigella boydii), which were absent 30 km downstream of São Paulo. The antibiotic resistances observed in the Tietê river were rather low and decreased after the major input in São Paulo to significantly lower levels about 30 km downstream. While the Brazilian isolates were more susceptible for ampicillin than the German ones, the reverse was observed for gentamycin. For optimal control of infections in humans critical areas where these bacteria survived longer and their elimination mechanisms should be identified as well as the extent and the origin of antibiotic resistance should be determined.     

The Byers Basin: Jurassic-Cretaceous tectonic and depositional evolution of the forearc deposits of the South Shetland Islands and its implications for the northern Antarctic Peninsula

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the Jurassic–Cretaceous stratigraphic evolution of fore-arc deposits exposed along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. In the South Shetland Islands, Upper Jurassic deep-marine sediments are uncomformably overlain by a Lower Cretaceous volcaniclastic sequence that crops out on Livingston, Snow and Low islands. U-Pb zircon ages are presented for the upper Anchorage Formation (153.1 ± 1.7 Ma) and the Cape Wallace granodiorite of Low Island (137.1 ± 1.7 Ma) as well as ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of 136–139 Ma for Low Island andesites. Data are also presented for a U-Pb age of 109.0 ± 1.4 Ma for the upper volcanic succession of Snow Island. In combination with published stratigraphy, these data provide a refined chrono- and litho-stratigraphic framework for the deposits herein referred to as the Byers Basin. Tentative correlation is explored with previously described deposits on Adelaide and Alexander islands, which could suggest further continuation of the Byers Basin towards the south. We also discuss possible correlation of the Byers Basin with the Larsen Basin, a sequence that shows the evolution of foreland to back-arc deposits more or less contemporaneously with the fore-arc to intra-arc evolution of the Byers Basin.     

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 g TP l^-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log₁₀ TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r², as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.     

Sequence stratigraphy of Holocene incised-valley fills and coastal evolution in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain)

This first sedimentary interpretation of two incised-valley fills in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain), which accumulated during the last fourth-order eustatic cycle in response to fluvial incision, changes of sea level, and correlative deposition, relates the filling of the estuarine basins and their barriers with four regional progradation phases, H₁ to H₄. The cases studied are the wave-dominated Guadalete, and the mixed, tide and wave-dominated Odiel-Tinto estuaries. The sequence boundary is a type-1 surface produced during the lowstand of the Last Glacial period ca. 18 000 ¹⁴C yr BP. No fluvial lowstand deposits were found in the area. Due to rapid transgression the valley fills consist of transgressive and highstand sediments. The maximum landward advance of the estuarine barriers occurred ca. 6500–6000 ¹⁴C yr BP during the maximum of the Flandrian transgression, but there is no evidence of sea level rising appreciably above the present. A large part of the estuaries was filled during H₁ (ca. 6500–4400 ¹⁴C yr BP) but ravinement by shifting tidal inlets destroyed most of the coeval barriers. During the H₂ phase (ca. 4200–2550 ¹⁴C yr BP) sedimentation was favoured by arid conditions and concentrated in the axial estuarine zones and the barriers. Between H₂ and H₃ prevailing winds changed from W to WSW, increasing spit growth to the east and south-east. Progradation of bay-head deltas and flood-plains during H₃ (ca. 2300–800 ¹⁴C yr BP) and H₄ (500 yr ago to the present) further reduced the accommodation space in the largely-filled valleys, and sediment by-passed the estuaries and accumulated in the estuarine barriers as fast-growing spits. Arid conditions and increasing human activity have caused rapid coastal modifications.     

The behavior of vertically integrated boundary-layer winds

This research provides a study of the behavior of vertically integrated boundary-layer winds (IBLWs). This information should be helpful for both theoretical and practical applications, e.g., boundary-layer parameterization in general circulation models, air pollution models, and low-level parachuting operations. The study concerned itself with winds integrated up to a height of 300 m in the United States. The only data suitable for studying the behavior of IBLWs for such heights were measurements taken on tall towers. An extensive search indicated that data were readily available from only four towers instrumented to or above 300 m. These were located in rural locations in Texas, Oklahoma, Nevada, and South Carolina. At each location, means and coefficients of variation of IBLWs were computed, plotted as a function of time since sunrise/sunset, and compared. The research shows that IBLWs may differ appreciably in magnitude at different locations; may have considerable universality in behavior, and may also be ‘regionally’ dependent; and that IBLWs have a pronounced diurnal variation linked to sunrise/sunset time.