Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches

A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO₂ concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO₂-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91, in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0°C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth??s environment irreversibly changed. Thus, the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions.     

基于小波统计特性的遥感图像像素与特征联合最优融合方法

遥感影像的IHS融合方法由于匹配误差导致光谱畸变和退化,而小波变换在变换域具有良好的分频特性,小波系数的统计特性反映了遥感影像的边缘、线和区域等显著特征。提出了基于小波统计特性的遥感影像的像素和特征联合最优融合方法,在IHS空间,对强度分量I的高频部分利用多分辨率小波融合方法进行影像的高频细节特征融合,低频部分选取光谱信息和空间分辨率评价指标作为融合权系数求优指标,进行像素级最优融合,实验结果证明了该方法的有效性。     

Ted Harrison 1930–2007

Associate of the RAS, pioneer in ionospheric incoherent scatter theory and observation, practical manager and leader, not least of EISCAT.     

Rates of cave and landform development in the Yorkshire Dales from speleothem age data

Uranium-series ages have been obtained for 87 speleothems collected from nine major cave systems in the Craven district of northern England. Large systems such as Ease Gill Caverns, the West Kingsdale caves, and Gaping Gill-Ingleborough Cave, which contain relict high-level tunnels, are found to be older than 350,000 years (the limit of the ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U dating method). There is little evidence to indicate a significant enlargement of these passages since this time. Estimates of the age of Victoria Cave from ²³⁴U/²³⁸U isotopic ratios suggest that the cave has been fully relict for more than 500,000 years. Ages of in situ speleothems immediately adjacent to local base level cave streams show that mean maximum downcutting rates in limestone channels are about 2 to 5 cm 1000 yr. These rates are significantly lower than those obtained from direct measurements on limestone bedrock in stream channels but are comparable to areal denudation rates based on solute budgets. Using the present elevation of caves with respect to adjacent valley floor levels, mean maximum valley entrenchment rates are found to range between 5 cm/ky and < 20cm/ky, which corresponds to 6 m to < 24 m of lowering per glacial/interglacial cycle. These rates suggest that upper beds of the limestone were incised to form the Yorkshire Dales between 1 and 2 million years ago. The results indicate that the erosional effects of individual glaciations are not as severe as previously proposed in the literature.     

Relations entre contraintes tectoniques et propriétés magnétiques des roches volcaniques permiennes de la vallée du Guil (briançonnais,Alpes Françaises)

Résumé Les roches volcaniques permiennes de la vallée du Guil présentent une ARN de direction voisine du plan de la schistosité alpine qui les affecte. Leur aimantation permienne a probablement été modifiée, lors de l'orogénèse alpine, par les efforts tectoniques (modification d'origine purement mécanique, ou acquisition d'une nouvelle aimantation par effet de pression). L'ARN des roches du Guil ne peut donc pas être prise en référence pour une étude géotectonique de l'arc alpin.

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Summary The Guil valley permian volcanic rocks have NRM whose direction is very near to the plane of alpine schistosity affecting these rocks. During the alpine orogeny, their permian magnetization was probably modified by tectonic stresses (mechanical modification, or new magnetization by piezo-magnetic effect). The NRM of the Guil valley rocks cannot be used as a reference for geotectonic study of the Alps.

     

Structure and evolution of the backstop in the eastern Nankai Trough area (Japan): Implications for the soon-to-come Tokai earthquake

Abstract We present data showing that the intra-oceanic shortening now occurring south of the eastern Nankai Trough that has produced the Zenisu Ridge has also been responsible for the formation of a previous ridge now buried below the continental margin. This ridge, that we refer to as Paleo-Zenisu, is presently adjacent to the backstop and its location coincides with the outer limit of the seismogenic decollement. The subduction of the paleo-Zenisu ridge below the wedge has led to its complete reorganization and has given its identity to the Great Tokai earthquake rupture zone. The formation of paleo-Zenisu and its consequent subduction has induced the tilting of the backstop toward the northwest since ca 2 Ma. This model suggests that the backstop and possibly the wedge are dextrally sheared because they are extruded southwestward in relation to the collision of the Izu-Bonin Ridge with Japan. We use the finite motion from Zenisu to paleo-Zenisu to derive both the subduction vectors along the Nankai Trough and the shortening vectors within Zenisu-Izu. The amount of shortening absorbed within Zenisu-Izu increases toward the northeast. The corresponding subduction vectors of the Zenisu platelet below the wedge decrease accordingly to the northeast from 50 to less than 20 mm/year and the Zenisu body rotates clockwise with a pole near 36° North, 139° East. This might explain the apparent longer repetition time of great earthquakes in the Tokai area. On the other hand, the 25-35 mm/year obtained for the rate of shortening along the Zenisu thrust indicates a high seismic potential there.     

The early Cenozoic tectonic history of the southeast Pacific

It is suggested that the hydrothermal vents of the South Pacific Rise produce a beta-governed circulation at mid-depth, and that perhaps the associated plume of excess³He (Lupton and Craig [1]) points westward because of the dynamics of this circulation rather than as a passive tracer.     

Practical method for drawing a VGP path

A statistical method is proposed for the smoothing of polar wander paths and for giving their confidence limits by the mean of successive ellipses. The method is fully parametrical and is based on the relations between the inertia matrix and the parameters of the Fisher distribution, from which a bivariate form is deduced. An elementary tensorial calculation gives the parameters of the confidence ellipse around a vectorial weighted mean, for any unimodal set of vectors. This model can also be used for other statistical tests, wherever the rotational symmetry hypothesis is not consistent (i.e. the fold test).     

Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

Organochlorine residues in whales landed at Durban,South Africa

The levels of DDT and its metabolites found in the blubber of 29 minke, 6 fin and 1 sei whale landed at the Durban whaling station in 1974 were on average much lower than those found in baleen whales from the North Atlantic, but of the same order as those measured from the Antarctic and North Pacific. In 12 sperm whales examined at Durban the levels of DDT and its metabolites in the blubber were substantially lower than in any other locality so far examined, including the Antarctic, but this may partly reflect the comparative youth of the animals sampled. Low levels of Dieldrin were found in some minke whales only. No PCB could be detected in any of the whales examined.