Validation and development of composite indices for measuring vulnerability to earthquakes using a socio-economic perspective

While many approaches for assessing earthquake risk exist within the literature and practice, it is the dynamic interrelationships between earthquake hazard, physical risk, and the social conditions of populations that are the focal point for disaster risk reduction. Here, the measurement of vulnerability to earthquakes (i.e., characteristics that create the potential for harm or loss) has become a major focus area. However, metrics aimed at measuring vulnerability to earthquakes suffer from several key limitations. For instance, hazard and community context are often ignored, and attempts to validate metrics are largely non-existent. The purpose of this paper is to produce composite indices of the vulnerability of countries to earthquakes within three topical areas: social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and recovery potential. To improve upon the status quo in indicators development for measuring vulnerability to seismic events, our starting point was to: (1) define a set of indicators that are context specific to earthquakes as defined by the literature; (2) delineate indicators within categorical areas of vulnerability that are easy to understand and could be put into practical use by DRR practitioners; and (3) propose indicators that are validated using historical earthquake impacts. When mapped, the geographic variations in the differential susceptibility of populations and economies to the adverse effects of damaging earthquake impacts become evident, as does differential ability of countries to recover from them. Drivers of this geographic variation include average country debt, the type and density of infrastructure, poverty, governance, and educational attainment, to name just a few.

     

Transport and exchange of U-series nuclides between suspended material,dissolved load and colloids in rivers draining basaltic terrains

This study presents uranium and thorium concentrations and activity ratios for all riverine phases (bedload, suspended load, dissolved load and colloids) from basaltic terrains in Iceland and the Azores. Small basaltic islands, such as these, are thought to account for ~ 25% of CO₂ consumed by global silicate weathering, and for ~ 45% of the flux of suspended material to the oceans. These data indicate that [U] and [Th] in the dissolved and colloidal fractions are strongly controlled by pH, and to a much lesser extent by levels of dissolved organic carbon (which are low in these environments). At high pH, basalt glass dissolution is enhanced, and secondary mineral formation (e.g. Fe-oxyhydroxides and allophane) is suppressed, resulting in high dissolved [U], and low colloidal [U] and [Th], indicating a direct chemical weathering control on elemental abundances. When the dissolved (²³⁴U/²³⁸U) activity ratio is >~1.3 (i.e. when physical weathering, groundwater contribution or soil formation are high), there is little isotope exchange between dissolved and colloidal fractions. At lower activity ratios, the dissolved load and colloids have indistinguishable activity ratios, suggesting that when chemical weathering rates are high, secondary clay formation is also high, and colloids rapidly adsorb dissolved U. Many of the suspended sediment samples have (²³⁴U/²³⁸U) activity ratios of > 1, which suggests that uptake of U onto the suspended load is important. Identical (²³⁰Th/²³²Th) in suspended, dissolved and colloidal samples suggests that Th, like U, is exchanged or sorbed rapidly between all riverine phases. This particle-reactivity, combined with poorly constrained contributions from groundwater and hydrothermal water, and short-term variations in input to soils (volcanic and glacial), suggests that U-series nuclides in riverine material from such basaltic terrains are unlikely to reflect steady state erosion processes.     

Particle breakage of uniformly graded carbonate sands in dry/wet condition subjected to compression/shear tests

The behaviour of a granular material is primarily affected by its particle size distribution (PSD), which is not necessarily a soil constant as assumed in traditional soil mechanics. The PSD may change over time due to mechanical as well as environmental actions. In this study, a series of ring shear tests and one-dimensional compression tests were completed on carbonate sand, in both dry and saturated conditions. Samples were prepared with different initial uniform gradings, to investigate: (1) the influence of the saturation state and initial grading on mechanical and deformational behaviour of carbonate sands and (2) the evolution of the PSD as a result of breakage. The ring shear tests show that the residual friction angle remains almost constant, but dilatancy reduces with increasing saturation degree. In the one-dimensional compression test, the yield stress decreases with increasing saturation degree, but the compressibility (as defined by C_c) remains almost constant, irrespective of the saturation state. Moreover, saturated samples suffer more breakage than dry samples during ring shear tests, while there is no obvious effect of saturation state on particle breakage in one-dimensional compression. A recently proposed PSD model with only two parameters (λ_p and κ_p) is employed to model the evolution of PSD, as it can more broadly capture the whole PSD throughout the breakage process than existing breakage indices. Test results demonstrate that parameter λ_p is linearly related to Einav’s breakage index \( B_{\text{r}}^{*} \) and is dependent on initial grading, but independent of test mode. Parameter κ_p is in power relationship with \( B_{\text{r}}^{*} \) and is independent of initial grading or test mode. The evolution of parameters λ_p and κ_p is related to the input work for both ring shear and compression tests, with λ_p being hyperbolically related to input work and κ_p in power relationship with input work. Using such an evolution law provides an alternative approach to capture the effects of particle breakage in constitutive models.

     

Early Ship Observational Data and Icoads

Many surface marine meteorological observations (∼125 million) from ships' logbooks have been assembled in the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) back to the late 18th century. We describe the makeup of the available data before 1950, and a recent update for that period incorporating a variety of US and international sources – focusing on the background, digitization, and processing of the US Maury Collection, which provides the earliest data (mainly 1830–1860) currently blended into ICOADS. We also describe planned data and metadata additions to early ICOADS. Among these, the new Climatological Database for the World's Oceans (CLIWOC) will extend and enhance coverage for 1750–1854. Prospects for data improvements and homogeneity enhancements to further benefit climate research are also discussed.     

Anisotropic elastic full‐waveform inversion of walkaway vertical seismic profiling data from the Arabian Gulf

Borehole seismic addresses the need for high‐resolution images and elastic parameters of the subsurface. Full‐waveform inversion of vertical seismic profile data is a promising technology with the potential to recover quantitative information about elastic properties of the medium. Full‐waveform inversion has the capability to process the entire wavefield and to address the wave propagation effects contained in the borehole data—multi‐component measurements; anisotropic effects; compressional and shear waves; and transmitted, converted, and reflected waves and multiples. Full‐waveform inversion, therefore, has the potential to provide a more accurate result compared with conventional processing methods. We present a feasibility study with results of the application of high‐frequency (up to 60 Hz) anisotropic elastic full‐waveform inversion to a walkaway vertical seismic profile data from the Arabian Gulf. Full‐waveform inversion has reproduced the majority of the wave events and recovered a geologically plausible layered model with physically meaningful values of the medium.     

The Southern Region of Peru Earthquake of June 23rd, 2001

The western border of South America is one of the most important seismogenic regions in the world. In this region the most damaging earthquake ever recorded occurred. In June 23rd, 2001, another very strong earthquake (Mw = 8.1–8.2) occurred and produced death and damages in the whole southern region of Peru. This earthquake was originated by a friction process between Nazca and South American plates and affected an area of about 300 km × 120 km defined by the distribution of more than 220 aftershocks recorded by a local seismic network that operated 20 days. The epicenter of the main shock was localized in the northwestern extremity of the aftershock area, which suggests that the rupture propagated towards the SE direction. The modeling of P-wave for teleseismic distances permitted to define a focal mechanism of reverse type with NW-SE oriented nodal planes and a possible fault plane moving beneath almost horizontally in NE direction. The source time function (STF) suggests a complex process of rupture during 85 sec with 2 successive sources. The second one of greater size, and located approximately 100–120 km toward the SE direction was estimated to have a rupture velocity of about 2 km/sec on a 28°-dipping plane to the SE (N135°). A second event happened 45 sec after the first one with an epicenter 130km farther to the SE and a complex STF. This event and the second source of the main shock caused a Tsunami with waves from 7 to 8 meters that propagated almost orthogonally to the coast line, by affecting mainly the Camaná area.Three of all the aftershocks presented magnitudes greater or equal to Mw = 6.6, two of them occurred in front of the cities of Ilo and Mollendo (June 26th and July 7th) with focal mechanisms similar to the main seismic event. The aftershock of July 5th shows a normal mechanism at a depth of 75 km, and is therefore most likely located within the subducting Nazca plate and not in the coupling. The aftershocks of June 26th (Mw = 6.6) and July 5th (Mw = 6.6) show simple short duration STF. The aftershock of July 7th (Mw = 7.5) with 27-second duration suggests a complex process of energy release with the possible occurrence of a secondary shock with lower focal depth and focal mechanism of inverse type with a great lateral component. Simple and composed focal mechanisms were elaborated for the aftershocks and all have similar characteristics to the main earthquake.The earthquake of June 23rd caused major damages in the whole southern Peru. The damage in towns of Arequipa, Moquegua allow to consider maximum intensities from 6 to 7 (MSK79). In Alto de la Alianza and Ciudad Nueva zones from Tacna, the maximum intensity was of 7⁻ (MSK79).     

Quantifying Striped Bass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Morone saxatilis</Emphasis>) Dependence on Saltmarsh-Derived Productivity Using Stable Isotope Analysis

Each winter, populations of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) migrate north from the coastal mid-Atlantic region of the US to the coastal waters of New England. During this migration, striped bass spend significant time in estuaries and saltmarshes, presumably to forage. However, the extent to which saltmarsh productivity supports striped bass remains unresolved. We used a three-isotope Bayesian mixing model to determine the relative contribution of three primary producers [C4 saltmarsh cordgrass (Spartina spp.), phytoplankton, and benthic diatoms] to striped bass tissue. Phytoplankton (51 % contribution) and Spartina-derived sources (44 % contribution) are the primary sources of production to striped bass, while benthic diatoms made a relatively small contribution (5 %). Our results highlight the importance of saltmarshes to striped bass by showing that primary producers unique to saltmarsh ecosystems support a large proportion of striped bass production.     

Study of the Saldanha Massif (MAR, 36°34′ N): Constrains from rock magnetic and geophysical data

We present a study of the magnetic properties of a group of basalt samples from the Saldanha Massif (Mid-Atlantic Ridge – MAR – 36° 33 54 N, 33° 26 W), and we set out to interpret these properties in the tectono-magmatic framework of this sector of the MAR. Most samples have low magnetic anisotropy and magnetic minerals of single domain grain size, typical of rapid cooling. The thermomagnetic study mostly shows two different susceptibility peaks. The high temperature peak is related to mineralogical alteration due to heating. The low temperature peak shows a distinction between three different stages of low temperature oxidation: the presence of titanomagnetite, titanomagnetite and titanomaghemite, and exclusively of titanomaghemite. Based on established empirical relationships between Curie temperature and degree of oxidation, the latter is tentatively deduced for all samples. Finally, swath bathymetry and sidescan sonar data combined with dive observations show that the Saldanha Massif is located over an exposed section of upper mantle rocks interpreted to be the result of detachment tectonics. Basalt samples inside the detachment zone often have higher than expected oxidation rates; this effect can be explained by the higher permeability caused by the detachment fault activity.     

Deglacial to middle Holocene (16,600 to 6000 calendar years BP) climate change in the northeastern United States inferred from multi-proxy stable isotope data, Seneca Lake, New York

Climate change in the northeastern United States has been inferred for the last deglaciation to middle Holocene (∼16,600 to 6000 calendar years ago) using multi-proxy data (total organic matter, total carbonate content, δ¹⁸ O calcite and δ¹³ C calcite) from a 5 m long sediment core from Seneca Lake, New York. Much of the regional postglacial warming occurred during the well-known Bolling and Allerod warm periods (∼14.5 to 13.0 ka), but climate amelioration in the northeastern United States preceded that in Greenland by ∼2000 years. An Oldest Dryas climate event (∼15.1 to 14.7 ka) is recognized in Seneca Lake as is a brief Older Dryas (∼14.1 ka) cold event. This latter cold event correlates with the regional expansion of glacial Lake Iroquois and global meltwater pulse IA. An increase in winter precipitation and a shorter growing season likely characterized the northeastern United States at this time. The Intra-Allerod Cold Period (∼13.2 ka) is also evident supporting an “Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation” at this time. The well-known Younger Dryas cold interval occurred in the northeastern United States between 12.9 and 11.6 ka, consistent with ice core data from Greenland. In the Seneca Lake record, however, the Younger Dryas appears as an asymmetric event characterized by an abrupt, high-amplitude beginning followed by a more gradual recovery. Compared to European records, the Younger Dryas in the northeastern United States was a relatively low-amplitude event. The largest amplitude and longest duration anomaly in the Seneca Lake record occurs after the Younger Dryas, between ∼11.6 and 10.3 ka. This “post-Younger Dryas climate interval” represents the last deglacial climate event prior to the start of the Holocene in the northeastern United States, but has not been recognized in Greenland or Europe. The early to middle Holocene in the northeastern United States was characterized by low-amplitude climate variability. A general warming trend during the Holocene Hypsithermal peaked at ∼9 ka coincident with maximum summer insolation controlled by orbital parameters. Millennial- to century-scale variability is also evident in the Holocene Seneca Lake record, including the well-known 8.2 ka cold event (as well as events at ∼7.1 and 6.6 ka). Hemispherical cooling during the Holocene Neoglacial in the northeastern United States began ∼5.5 ka in response to decreasing summer insolation.