Ted Harrison 1930–2007

Associate of the RAS, pioneer in ionospheric incoherent scatter theory and observation, practical manager and leader, not least of EISCAT.     

Organochlorine residues in whales landed at Durban,South Africa

The levels of DDT and its metabolites found in the blubber of 29 minke, 6 fin and 1 sei whale landed at the Durban whaling station in 1974 were on average much lower than those found in baleen whales from the North Atlantic, but of the same order as those measured from the Antarctic and North Pacific. In 12 sperm whales examined at Durban the levels of DDT and its metabolites in the blubber were substantially lower than in any other locality so far examined, including the Antarctic, but this may partly reflect the comparative youth of the animals sampled. Low levels of Dieldrin were found in some minke whales only. No PCB could be detected in any of the whales examined.     

Rates of cave and landform development in the Yorkshire Dales from speleothem age data

Uranium-series ages have been obtained for 87 speleothems collected from nine major cave systems in the Craven district of northern England. Large systems such as Ease Gill Caverns, the West Kingsdale caves, and Gaping Gill-Ingleborough Cave, which contain relict high-level tunnels, are found to be older than 350,000 years (the limit of the ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U dating method). There is little evidence to indicate a significant enlargement of these passages since this time. Estimates of the age of Victoria Cave from ²³⁴U/²³⁸U isotopic ratios suggest that the cave has been fully relict for more than 500,000 years. Ages of in situ speleothems immediately adjacent to local base level cave streams show that mean maximum downcutting rates in limestone channels are about 2 to 5 cm 1000 yr. These rates are significantly lower than those obtained from direct measurements on limestone bedrock in stream channels but are comparable to areal denudation rates based on solute budgets. Using the present elevation of caves with respect to adjacent valley floor levels, mean maximum valley entrenchment rates are found to range between 5 cm/ky and < 20cm/ky, which corresponds to 6 m to < 24 m of lowering per glacial/interglacial cycle. These rates suggest that upper beds of the limestone were incised to form the Yorkshire Dales between 1 and 2 million years ago. The results indicate that the erosional effects of individual glaciations are not as severe as previously proposed in the literature.     

Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

Climate response to astronomical forcing

Power spectrum analysis of the oxygen isotopic records of deep-sea cores cannot be directly used for correlation studies with the astronomical forcing functions because of the rapidity of the major deglaciations. The ensuing step change in the isotopic curves, repeated at somewhat irregular intervals, produces, in fact, substantial spectral energy in a wide frequency band that includes the frequencies of the precessional parameters.The isotopic fluctuations within the ramp sections of a composite core curve have been found to be highly correlated with the precessional parameters, indicating a linear response of climate to these parameters and verifying, at the same time, the essential correctness of the time scale adopted.A direct correlation of eccentricity with the major glacial/interglacial cycle is doubtful because some of the eccentricity minima have absolute values of the same order as some of the maxima, while the isotopic amplitude remains essentially constant. In order to test if the major cycle could be related to a terrestrial parameter exhibiting an asymmetric relaxation fluctuation, we have added an asymmetric saw-tooth function to an artificial curve constructed from the precessional parameters on the basis of optimal response amplitude. The curve thus generated reproduces the original isotopic curve with a similarity sufficient to warrant a close search and analysis of the relaxation process.     

Practical method for drawing a VGP path

A statistical method is proposed for the smoothing of polar wander paths and for giving their confidence limits by the mean of successive ellipses. The method is fully parametrical and is based on the relations between the inertia matrix and the parameters of the Fisher distribution, from which a bivariate form is deduced. An elementary tensorial calculation gives the parameters of the confidence ellipse around a vectorial weighted mean, for any unimodal set of vectors. This model can also be used for other statistical tests, wherever the rotational symmetry hypothesis is not consistent (i.e. the fold test).     

Structure and evolution of the backstop in the eastern Nankai Trough area (Japan): Implications for the soon-to-come Tokai earthquake

Abstract We present data showing that the intra-oceanic shortening now occurring south of the eastern Nankai Trough that has produced the Zenisu Ridge has also been responsible for the formation of a previous ridge now buried below the continental margin. This ridge, that we refer to as Paleo-Zenisu, is presently adjacent to the backstop and its location coincides with the outer limit of the seismogenic decollement. The subduction of the paleo-Zenisu ridge below the wedge has led to its complete reorganization and has given its identity to the Great Tokai earthquake rupture zone. The formation of paleo-Zenisu and its consequent subduction has induced the tilting of the backstop toward the northwest since ca 2 Ma. This model suggests that the backstop and possibly the wedge are dextrally sheared because they are extruded southwestward in relation to the collision of the Izu-Bonin Ridge with Japan. We use the finite motion from Zenisu to paleo-Zenisu to derive both the subduction vectors along the Nankai Trough and the shortening vectors within Zenisu-Izu. The amount of shortening absorbed within Zenisu-Izu increases toward the northeast. The corresponding subduction vectors of the Zenisu platelet below the wedge decrease accordingly to the northeast from 50 to less than 20 mm/year and the Zenisu body rotates clockwise with a pole near 36° North, 139° East. This might explain the apparent longer repetition time of great earthquakes in the Tokai area. On the other hand, the 25-35 mm/year obtained for the rate of shortening along the Zenisu thrust indicates a high seismic potential there.     

Deep-sea faunal communities associated with a lost intermodal shipping container in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary,CA

Carrying assorted cargo and covered with paints of varying toxicity, lost intermodal containers may take centuries to degrade on the deep seafloor. In June 2004, scientists from Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) discovered a recently lost container during a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) dive on a sediment-covered seabed at 1281 m depth in Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (MBNMS). The site was revisited by ROV in March 2011. Analyses of sediment samples and high-definition video indicate that faunal assemblages on the container’s exterior and the seabed within 10 m of the container differed significantly from those up to 500 m. The container surface provides hard substratum for colonization by taxa typically found in rocky habitats. However, some key taxa that dominate rocky areas were absent or rare on the container, perhaps related to its potential toxicity or limited time for colonization and growth. Ecological effects appear to be restricted to the container surface and the benthos within ∼10 m.