Combining a Detailed Building Energy Model with a Physically-Based Urban Canopy Model

A scheme that couples a detailed building energy model, EnergyPlus, and an urban canopy model, the Town Energy Balance (TEB), is presented. Both models are well accepted and evaluated within their individual scientific communities. The coupled scheme proposes a more realistic representation of buildings and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which allows a broader analysis of the two-way interactions between the energy performance of buildings and the urban climate around the buildings. The scheme can be used to evaluate the building energy models that are being developed within the urban climate community. In this study, the coupled scheme is evaluated using measurements conducted over the dense urban centre of Toulouse, France. The comparison includes electricity and natural gas energy consumption of buildings, building façade temperatures, and urban canyon air temperatures. The coupled scheme is then used to analyze the effect of different building and HVAC system configurations on building energy consumption, waste heat released from HVAC systems, and outdoor air temperatures for the case study of Toulouse. Three different energy efficiency strategies are analyzed: shading devices, economizers, and heat recovery.     

Temperature affects the timing of spawning and migration of North Sea mackerel

Climate change accentuates the need for knowing how temperature impacts the life history and productivity of economically and ecologically important species of fish. We examine the influence of temperature on the timing of the spawning and migrations of North Sea Mackerel using data from larvae CPR surveys, egg surveys and commercial landings from Danish coastal fisheries in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and inner Danish waters. The three independent sources of data all show that there is a significant relationship between the timing of spawning and sea surface temperature. Large mackerel are shown to arrive at the feeding areas before and leave later than small mackerel and the sequential appearance of mackerel in each of the feeding areas studied supports the anecdotal evidence for an eastward post-spawning migration. Occasional commercial catches taken in winter in the Sound N, Kattegat and Skagerrak together with catches in the first quarter IBTS survey furthermore indicate some overwintering here. Significant relationships between temperature and North Sea mackerel spawning and migration have not been documented before. The results have implications for mackerel resource management and monitoring. An increase in temperature is likely to affect the timing and magnitude of the growth, recruitment and migration of North Sea mackerel with subsequent impacts on its sustainable exploitation.     

Implementation of high-order particle-tracking schemes in a water column model

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) offer an attractively simple solution to complex transport-controlled problems, and have a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological applications, which are dominated by stochastic processes, such as diffusion. As for deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), various numerical scheme exist for solving SDEs. In this paper various particle-tracking schemes are presented and tested for accuracy and efficiency (time vs. accuracy). To test the schemes, the particle tracking algorithms are implemented into a community wide used 1D water column model. Modelling individual particles allows a straightforward physical interpretation of the involved processes. Further, this approach is strictly mass conserving and does not suffer from the numerical diffusion that plagues grid-based methods. Moreover, the Lagrangian framework allows to assign properties to the individual particles, that can vary spatially and temporally. The movement of the particles is described by a stochastic differential equation, which is consistent with the advection–diffusion equation. Here, the concentration profile is represented by a set of independent moving particles, which are advected according to the velocity field, while the diffusive displacements of the particles are sampled from a random distribution, which is related to the eddy diffusivity field.The paper will show that especially the 2nd order schemes are accurate and highly efficient. At the same level of accuracy, the 2nd order scheme can be significantly faster than the 1st order counterpart. This gain in efficiency can be spent on a higher resolution for more accurate solutions at a lower cost.     

A micro-Mössbauer study of chromites included in diamond and other mantle-related rocks

Oxygen fugacity ( $ f_{{{\text{O}}_{ 2} }} $ f O 2 ) is a fundamental but little known intensive variable in mantle processes. It influences the P/T position of a mantle solidus and the composition of mantle-derived melts and fluids and constrains mantle-core equilibria and a number of geophysical properties of the mantle. An important source of information on oxidation states is the ferric–ferrous iron ratio in mantle spinels. Since the magnetite component is low in mantle spinels, normal analytical errors translate into considerable $ f_{{{\text{O}}_{ 2} }} $ f O 2 uncertainties. In this study, we analyzed the Fe³⁺–Fe_tot ratio of chromites present as inclusions in diamond and other mantle-related occurrences by point-source Mössbauer spectroscopy using single-crystal absorbers as well as conventional Mössbauer spectroscopy using powder absorbers. The studied spinels have been previously analyzed by single-crystal X-ray diffraction and electron microprobe. The ferric–ferrous ratios found are normally similar to the different techniques apart from some samples where a large number of grains have been used for the analyses (powder absorbers). The general agreement between the different techniques allows us to conclude that the studied chromites are stoichiometric. However, conventional Mössbauer spectroscopy on powder absorbers should be conducted with great care, since the method requires a relatively large amount of sample material. Spinel frequently occurs as small grains, and the large number of crystals required may possess different degrees of oxidation/alteration and, consequently, different ferric–ferrous ratio leading to possible errors in the interpretation of the results.     

Block and boulder accumulations along the coastline between Fins and Sur (Sultanate of Oman): tsunamigenic remains?

The rocky coastline of the Sultanate of Oman between Fins and Sur is decorated by a number of large blocks and boulder accumulations forming ramparts. The blocks occur as individual rocks of up to 40 tons, as imbricated sets and as ??boulder trains.?? Landward, the deposits change into a sand/boulder mixture and distal into sands. The coast is made up of Tertiary folded limestones and beach rock of Quaternary age, both also constitute the megaclasts. The transport distance from the fractured seaward platform of 6?C10?m above mean sea level varies between 20?m and more than 50?m. We found individual blocks of recent corals and overturned blocks with attached oysters and rock pools. Terrestrial laser scanning was used to analyze geomorphologic features as well as for volumetric estimates of the block weights. Tropical cyclones such as Gonu in 2007 or Phet in 2010 are known to have affected Oman??s coastline in the past. The coastal changes during recent cyclones were minor; therefore, we interpret the block deposits as tsunamigenic. However, this interpretation is not unambiguous. The most likely source area for a tsunami is seen in the Makran Subduction Zone situated in the northern Indian Ocean. Here, at least 4?C5 tsunamigenic earthquakes are documented.     

Ion transport in porous media: derivation of the macroscopic equations using upscaling and properties of the effective coefficients

In this work, we undertake a numerical study of the effective coefficients arising in the upscaling of a system of partial differential equations describing transport of a dilute N-component electrolyte in a Newtonian solvent through a rigid porous medium. The motion is governed by a small static electric field and a small hydrodynamic force, around a nonlinear Poisson–Boltzmann equilibrium with given surface charges of arbitrary size. This approach allows us to calculate the linear response regime in a way initially proposed by O’Brien. The O’Brien linearization requires a fast and accurate solution of the underlying Poisson–Boltzmann equation. We present an analysis of it, with the discussion of the boundary layer appearing as the Debye–Hückel parameter becomes large. Next, we briefly discuss the corresponding two-scale asymptotic expansion and reduce the obtained two-scale equations to a coarse scale model. Our previous rigorous study proves that the homogenized coefficients satisfy Onsager properties, namely they are symmetric positive definite tensors. We illustrate with numerical simulations several characteristic situations and discuss the behavior of the effective coefficients when the Debye–Hückel parameter is large. Simulated qualitative behavior differs significantly from the situation when the surface potential is given (instead of the surface charges). In particular, we observe the Donnan effect (exclusion of co-ions for small pores).     

Universe models with negative bulk viscosity

The concept of negative temperatures has occasionally been used in connection with quantum systems. A recent example of this sort is reported in the paper of S. Braun et al. (Science 339:52, 2013), where an attractively interacting ensemble of ultracold atoms is investigated experimentally and found to correspond to a negative-temperature system since the entropy decreases with increasing energy at the high end of the energy spectrum. As the authors suggest, it would be of interest to investigate whether a suitable generalization of standard cosmological theory could be helpful, in order to elucidate the observed accelerated expansion of the universe usually explained in terms of a positive tensile stress (negative pressure). In the present note we take up this basic idea and investigate a generalization of the standard viscous cosmological theory, not by admitting negative temperatures but instead by letting the bulk viscosity take negative values. Evidently, such an approach breaks standard thermodynamics, but may actually be regarded to lead to the same kind of bizarre consequences as the standard approach of admitting the equation-of-state parameter w to be less than ?1. In universe models dominated by negative viscosity we find that the fluid’s entropy decreases with time, as one would expect. Moreover, we find that the fluid transition from the quintessence region into the phantom region (thus passing the phantom divide w=?1) can actually be reversed. Also in generalizations of the ΛCDM-universe models with a fluid having negative bulk viscosity we find that the viscosity decreases the expansion of the universe.     

Assessment of the ecological quality status of soft-bottoms in Reunion Island (tropical Southwest Indian Ocean) using AZTI marine biotic indices

The ability of the two synthetic marine biotic indices, AMBI and M-AMBI, to account for changes in the ecological quality of coastal soft bottoms of Reunion Island according to disturbances was assessed from macrobenthic samples collected in five sectors between 1994 and 2004. Samples were collected under non-perturbed conditions and at two sites subjected to heavy organic enrichment. Both indices are based on a classification of macrofauna into ecological groups (EG), and their transfer to tropical waters required some adaptations. These indices proved efficient in detecting a degradation of habitat quality. Their use resulted in the classification of all sites sampled between 1996 and 1998 as "good" or "high". M-AMBI nevertheless tended to result in the attribution of a slightly worse ecological quality status than AMBI. Together with an update of the EG species list for the Indian Ocean area, our results support the extension of both indices for the assessment of tropical soft bottoms.     

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

Mixing,hypersalinity and gradients in Hervey Bay,Australia

Hervey Bay, a large coastal embayment situated off the central eastern coast of Australia, is a shallow tidal area (average depth = 15 m), close to the continental shelf. It shows features of an inverse estuary, due to the high evaporation rate (approx. 2 m/year), low precipitation (less than 1 m/year) and on average almost no freshwater input from rivers that drain into the bay. The hydro- and thermodynamical structures of Hervey Bay and their variability are presented here for the first time, using a combination of four-dimensional modelling and observations from field studies. The numerical studies are performed with the Coupled Hydrodynamical Ecological Model for Regional Shelf Seas (COHERENS). Due to the high tidal range (>3.5 m), the bay is considered as a vertically well-mixed system, and therefore, only horizontal fronts are likely. Recent field measurements, but also the numerical simulations, indicate characteristic features of an inverse/hypersaline estuary with low salinity (35.5 psu) in the open ocean and peak values (>39.0 psu) in the head water of the bay. The model further predicts a nearly persistent mean salinity gradient of 0.5 psu across the bay (with higher salinities close to the shore). The investigation further shows that air temperature, wind direction and tidal regime are mainly responsible for the stability of the inverse circulation and the strength of the salinity gradient across the bay. Due to an ongoing drying trend, the occurrence of severe droughts at the central east coast of Australia and, therefore, a reduction in freshwater supply, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased, and the inverse circulation has also strengthened.