Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.     

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of \(v_{S30}\) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02–3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.     

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.     

How Well Does Chlorophyll Explain the Seasonal Variation in Phytoplankton Activity?

The seasonal variation in phytoplankton activity is determined by analysing 1385 primary production (PP) profiles, chlorophyll a (Chl) concentration profiles and phytoplankton carbon biomass concentrations (C) from the period 1998–2012. The data was collected at six different stations in the Baltic Sea transition zone (BSTZ) which is a location with strong seasonal production patterns with light as the key parameter controlling this productivity. We show that the use of Chl as a proxy for phytoplankton activity strongly overestimates the contribution from the spring production to annual pelagic carbon flow. Spring (February and March) Chl comprised 16–30% of the total annual Chl produced, whereas spring C was much lower (8–23%) compared to the annual C. Spring PP accounted for 10–18% of the total annual PP, while the July–August production contributed 26–33%, i.e. within the time frame when zooplankton biomass and grazing pressure are highest. That is, Chl failed in this study to reflect the importance of the high summer PP. A better proxy for biomass may be C, which correlated well with the seasonal pattern of PP (Pearson correlation, p < 0.05). Thus, this study suggests to account for the strong seasonal pattern in C/Chl ratios when considering carbon flow in coastal systems. Seasonal data for PP were fitted to a simple sinusoidal wave model describing the seasonal distribution of PP in the BSTZ and were proposed to present a better parameterizaton of PP in shallow stratified temperate regions than more commonly applied proxies.     

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

Detecting the near-surface redox front in crystalline bedrock using fracture mineral distribution,geochemistry and U-series disequilibrium

Oxidizing conditions normally prevail in surface waters and near-surface groundwaters, but there is usually a change to reducing conditions in groundwater at greater depth. Dissolved O₂ originally present is consumed through biogenic and inorganic reactions along the flow paths. Fracture minerals participate in these reactions and the fracture mineralogy and geochemistry can be used to trace the redox front. An important task in the safety assessment of a potential repository for the disposal of nuclear waste in crystalline bedrock, at an approximate depth of 500 m in Sweden, is to demonstrate that reducing conditions can be maintained for a long period of time. Oxygen may damage the Cu canisters that host nuclear waste; additionally, in the event of a canister failure, oxidizing conditions may increase the mobility of some radionuclides. The present study of the near-surface redox front is based on mineralogical (redox-sensitive minerals), geochemical (redox-sensitive elements) and U-series disequilibrium investigations of mineral coatings along open fractures. The fractures have been sampled along drill cores from closely spaced, 100 m deep boreholes, which were drilled during the site investigation work in the Laxemar area, south-eastern Sweden, carried out by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. (SKB). The distribution of the redox-sensitive minerals pyrite and goethite in open fractures shows that the redox front (switch from mainly goethite to mainly pyrite in the fractures) generally occurs at about 15–20 m depth. Calcite leaching by recharging water is indicated in the upper 20–30 m and positive Ce-anomalies suggest oxidation of Ce down to 20 m depth. The U-series radionuclides show disequilibrium in most of the samples, indicating mobility of U during the last 1 Ma. In the upper 20 m, U is mainly removed (due to oxidation) or has experienced complex removal and/or deposition. At depths of 35–55 m, both deposition and removal of U are indicated. Below 55 m, recent deposition of U is generally indicated which suggests removal of U near surface (oxidation) and deposition of U below the redox front. Scattered goethite occurrences below the general redox front (down to ca 80 m) and signs of U removal at 35–55 m mostly correlate with sections of high transmissivity (and/or high fracture frequencies). This shows that highly transmissive fractures are generally required to allow oxygenated groundwaters at depth greater than ca 30 m. Removal of U (oxidation) below 55 m within the last 300 ka is not observed. Although penetration of glacial waters to great depths has been confirmed in the study area, their potential O₂ load seems to have been reduced near the surface.     

UV transit observations of EUV-heated expanded thermospheres of Earth-like exoplanets around M-stars: testing atmosphere evolution scenarios

The detection and investigation of EUV heated, extended and non-hydrostatic upper atmospheres around terrestrial exoplanets would provide important insights into the interaction of the host stars plasma environment as well as the evolution of Earth-type planets their atmospheres and possible magnetic environments. We discuss different scenarios where one can expect that Earth-like planets should experience non-hydrostatic upper atmosphere conditions so that dynamically outward flowing neutral atoms can interact with the stellar plasma flow so that huge hydrogen coronae and energetic neutral atoms (ENA) can be produced via charge exchange. By observing the size of the extended upper atmospheres and related ENA-clouds and by determining the velocities of the surrounding hydrogen atoms, conclusions can be drawn in respect to the origin of these features. Due to the large number of M-type stars in our neighbourhood and their long periods of strong and moderate stellar activity in comparison to G-stars, we expect that M-type stars represent the most promising candidates for the detection of hydrogen ENA-clouds and the subsequent study of the interaction between the host star and the planets?? upper atmosphere. We show that the low mass of M-type stars also makes them preferable targets to observe extended hydrogen clouds around terrestrial exoplanets with a mass as low as one Earth mass. Transit follow-up observations in the UV-range of terrestrial exoplanets around M-type stars with space observatories such as the World Space Observatory-UV (WSO-UV) would provide a unique opportunity to shed more light on the early evolution of Earth-like planets, including those of our own Solar System.