Forthcoming events

Spatial data uncertainty models (SDUM) are necessary tools that quantify the reliability of results from geographical information system (GIS) applications. One technique used by SDUM is Monte Carlo simulation, a technique that quantifies spatial data and application uncertainty by determining the possible range of application results. A complete Monte Carlo SDUM for generalized continuous surfaces typically has three components: an error magnitude model, a spatial statistical model defining error shapes, and a heuristic that creates multiple realizations of error fields added to the generalized elevation map. This paper introduces a spatial statistical model that represents multiple statistics simultaneously and weighted against each other. This paper's case study builds a SDUM for a digital elevation model (DEM). The case study accounts for relevant shape patterns in elevation errors by reintroducing specific topological shapes, such as ridges and valleys, in appropriate localized positions. The spatial statistical model also minimizes topological artefacts, such as cells without outward drainage and inappropriate gradient distributions, which are frequent problems with random field-based SDUM. Multiple weighted spatial statistics enable two conflicting SDUM philosophies to co-exist. The two philosophies are ‘errors are only measured from higher quality data’ and ‘SDUM need to model reality’. This article uses an automatic parameter fitting random field model to initialize Monte Carlo input realizations followed by an inter-map cell-swapping heuristic to adjust the realizations to fit multiple spatial statistics. The inter-map cell-swapping heuristic allows spatial data uncertainty modelers to choose the appropriate probability model and weighted multiple spatial statistics which best represent errors caused by map generalization. This article also presents a lag-based measure to better represent gradient within a SDUM. This article covers the inter-map cell-swapping heuristic as well as both probability and spatial statistical models in detail.     

A palaeolimnological meta-database for assessing the ecological status of lakes

We describe a palaeolimnological meta-database (“LakeCores”) that includes information for lakes in Europe that have been cored for studies of recent environmental change. Only cores with intact mud-water interfaces and good chronologies for the last ~100–200 years are currently included. The information provided in the database includes the general characteristics of the lakes cored, the methods used for dating and analysis and the bibliographic source of the information selected. At present the database contains information on 1847 studies from 975 sites. Here we use the database to identify cores for which diatom-based pH and total phosphorus (TP) reconstructions have been derived and, from an inspection of the relevant papers, we compile summary data for the timing and extent of acidification and eutrophication of lakes across Europe. We show that there were few cases of acidification and eutrophication in Europe prior to about 1850, and therefore that conditions prior to 1850 can be used for reference with respect to current attempts to restore surface waters to “good ecological status”. We also show the extent to which pH and TP levels have changed across the continent both for all lakes, and, in the case of TP, for lakes of different types covering a range of alkalinities, altitudes, water depths and surface areas.     

Bacterial and eukaryotic intact polar lipids in the eastern subtropical South Pacific: Water-column distribution, planktonic sources, and fatty acid composition

Fatty acids are generally the most abundant lipid molecules in plankton, and thus play a central role in the cycling of organic matter in the upper ocean. These fatty acids are primarily derived from intact polar diacylglycerolipids (IP-DAGs), which compose cell membranes in plankton. The molecular diversity of IP-DAGs in the upper ocean remains to be fully characterized, and the advent of high performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry (HPLC/ESI-MS) approaches have now provided the opportunity to readily analyze IP-DAGs from marine planktonic communities. We used HPLC/ESI-MS to determine the concentrations of three classes of phospholipids (phosphatidlyglycerol (PG), phosphatidylethanolamine (PE), and phosphatidylcholine (PC)), three classes of betaine lipids (diacylglyceryl trimethylhomoserine (DGTS), diacylglyceryl hydroxymethyl-trimethyl-β-alanine (DGTA), and diacylglyceryl carboxyhydroxymethylcholine (DGCC)), and three classes of glycolipids (monogalactosyldiacylglycerol (MGDG), digalactosyldiacylglycerol (DGDG), and sulfoquinovosyldiacylglycerol (SQDG)) in plankton filtered (>0.2 μm) from seawater collected within the euphotic zone of the eastern South Pacific. The distributions of these IP-DAGs along the cruise transect provided important new insights on their tentative planktonic sources. Complementary data from our cruise, a principle components analysis of our IP-DAG concentrations, observed fatty acid compositions of IP-DAG classes and published IP-DAG distributions in pure cultures of plankton suggest that heterotrophic bacteria were the dominant sources of PG and PE, while MGDG and SQDG originated primarily from Prochlorophytes. The origins of the other classes of IP-DAGs were less clear, although it is likely that PC, DGTS, DGTA, and DGCC were derived primarily from eukaryotic phytoplankton. The molecular distributions of fatty acids attached to the different classes of IP-DAGs were generally distinct from one another, and suggest that reported distributions of total fatty acids (as analyzed by gas chromatography) in the literature should be regarded as homogenized mixtures of distinct molecular pools of fatty acids.     

Real-time storm detection and weather forecast activation through data mining and events processing

Each year across the USA, destructive weather events disrupt transportation and commerce, resulting in both loss of lives and property. Mitigating the impacts of such severe events requires innovative new software tools and cyberinfrastructure through which scientists can monitor data for specific severe weather events such as thunderstorms and launch focused modeling computations for prediction and forecasts of these evolving weather events. Bringing about a paradigm shift in meteorology research and education through advances in cyberinfrastructure is one of the key research objectives of the Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD) project, a large-scale, interdisciplinary NSF funded project spanning ten institutions. In this paper we address the challenges of making cyberinfrastructure frameworks responsive to real-time conditions in the physical environment driven by the use cases in mesoscale meteorology. The contribution of the research is two-fold: on the cyberinfrastructure side, we propose a model for bridging between the physical environment and e-Science¹ workflow systems, specifically through events processing systems, and provide a proof of concept implementation of that model in the context of the LEAD cyberinfrastructure. On the algorithmic side, we propose efficient stream mining algorithms that can be carried out on a continuous basis in real time over large volumes of observational data. ¹ e-Science is used to describe computationally intensive science that is typically carried out in highly distributed network     

Résultats préliminaires sur la sédimentation pélagique de l'Atlantique tropical au Crétacé et au Tertiaire (plateau de Demerara,Leg ODP 207)

Five sites located on a bathymetric transect of the distal Demerara Rise were studied by ODP Leg 207. Albian sediments of essentially terrigenous nature (clay, siltstone, sandstone) are the oldest drilled stratigraphic levels and form apparently the top of the synrift sequence. They are overlain by Cenomanian to Santonian finely laminated black shales, rich in organic matter of marine origin, which accumulated on a thermally subsiding ramp. Early Campanian hiatuses are thought to be the result of final disjunction of Demerara Rise (South America) from Africa and the onset of deep water communication between the two Atlantic basins (south and central). The overlying Uppermost Cretaceous–Oligocene chalk includes rich and diversified calcareous plankton assemblages, as well as two radiolarian-rich intervals (Late Campanian and Middle Eocene). A complex erosional surface developed during the Late Oligocene–Early Miocene. Sedimentation was impeded since then on the intermediate and deep sites of Demerara Rise, possibly due to the action of deep submarine currents. To cite this article: T. Danelian et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.     

Plastic hinge analysis for lightly reinforced and unconfined concrete structural walls

Poor performance of lightly reinforced and unconfined concrete structural walls have been observed in recent earthquake events. This research investigates the displacement capacity of such walls by comparing the results of a series of state-of-the-art finite element analyses for a range of different structural walls to that estimated using plastic hinge analyses. The common expressions used in estimating the yield curvature, yield displacement and plastic displacement are scrutinised for these types of walls. Some recommendations are given to improve the prediction of the displacement capacity of lightly reinforced and unconfined rectangular and C-shaped walls for flexural actions using a plastic hinge analysis. Importantly, a parameter has been recommended to be used in a “modified” approach for estimating the nominal yield displacement of lightly reinforced concrete walls. Different expressions are also recommended depending on the amount of longitudinal reinforcement used in the wall in comparison to that required to initiate secondary cracking. This is important for providing better estimations of the displacement capacity of RC structural wall buildings in low-to-moderate seismic regions such that vulnerability studies can be conducted.     

Is X‐ray core scanning non‐destructive? Assessing the implications for optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sediments

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating is widely used to date clastic deposits, including those collected by coring. X‐ray scanning of cores has become popular because of the rapidly acquired, high‐resolution information it gives about optical, radiographic and elemental variations. Additionally, X‐ray scanning is widely viewed as a non‐destructive method. However, such instruments use an intense X‐ray beam that irradiates the split core to enable both X‐radiographic and X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis. This irradiation will influence the optically stimulated luminescence signal in the sediments. This study determines the radiation dose delivered to sediments in a core during an X‐ray scan, and assesses the implications for studies wishing to combine X‐ray scanning and OSL dating. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Certainty of Uncertainty: GIS and the Limits of Geographic Knowledge

Considerable effort has been devoted over the years to fighting uncertainty in geographic information in its different manifestations. Thus far, research on handling inaccuracy, fuzziness, error and related issues has focused for the most part on problems with spatial data and their direct products, typically representations of spatial objects or fields. This paper seeks to broaden the discussion of uncertainty in the geospatial domain by shifting the focus from information to knowledge. It turns out that there is a surprising number of things that we cannot know (or questions we cannot answer) that are not the result of imperfect information. Forms of not knowing are pervasive in domains as diverse as mathematics, logic, physics, and linguistics, and are apparently irreducible. This being the case it may help to explore how these realms of ignorance may affect our efforts. The paper distinguishes three different modes or forms of geospatial knowledge production, and argues that each of them has built–in imperfections, for reasons of logical principle and not just empirical fact. While much can and needs to be done to manage and resolve uncertainties where possible, I argue for accepting that uncertainty is an intrinsic property of complex knowledge and not just a flaw that needs to be excised.