Effective Acceleration Model for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections

In a previous work (Paouris and Mavromichalaki in Solar Phys. 292, 30, 2017), we presented a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) with as much information as possible. We developed a new empirical model for estimating the acceleration of these events in the interplanetary medium from this analysis. In this work, we present a new approach on the effective acceleration model (EAM) for predicting the arrival time of the shock that preceds a CME, using data of a total of 214 ICMEs. For the first time, the projection effects of the linear speed of CMEs are taken into account in this empirical model, which significantly improves the prediction of the arrival time of the shock. In particular, the mean value of the time difference between the observed time of the shock and the predicted time was equal to +3.03 hours with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.58 hours and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 22.47 hours. After the improvement of this model, the mean value of the time difference is decreased to ?0.28 hours with an MAE of 17.65 hours and an RMSE of 21.55 hours. This improved version was applied to a set of three recent Earth-directed CMEs reported in May, June, and July of 2017, and we compare our results with the values predicted by other related models.     

High-resolution optical and infrared spectroscopic observations of Cir X-1

We present new optical and infrared (IR) observations of Cir X-1 taken near apastron. Both sets of spectra show asymmetric emission lines. Archival optical observations show that an asymmetric H α emission line has been in evidence for the past 20 years, although the shape of the line has changed significantly. We present an eccentric ( e ∼0.7–0.9) low-mass binary model, where the system consists of a neutron star orbiting around a (sub)giant companion star of 3–5 M_⊙. We suggest that the broad components of the emission lines arise in a high-velocity, optically thick flow near the neutron star, while the narrow components of the optical and the IR lines arise near the companion star and a heated ejecta shell surrounding the binary respectively. In this model, the velocity of the narrow component reflects the space velocity of the binary; the implied radial velocity (+430 km s⁻¹ after correcting for Galactic rotation) is the highest velocity known for an X-ray binary.     

Microbial ecology of the stratified water column of the Black Sea as revealed by a comprehensive biomarker study

The stratified water column of the Black Sea is partitioned into oxic, suboxic, and euxinic zones, each characterized by different biogeochemical processes and by distinct microbial communities. In 2003, we collected particulate matter by large volume in situ filtration at the highest resolution to date for lipid biomarker analysis and bacterioplankton for enumeration of major prokaryotic groups. Abundances of several prokaryotic groups were estimated using CARD-FISH probes specific for Bacteria, Archaea (Crenarchaeota and Euryarchaeota), epsilonproteobacteria (mainly sulfide oxidizers) and sulfate reducing bacteria. We also measured a wide range of bacterial and archaeal lipid biomarkers. Depth distributions of diagnostic biomarkers are matched with zonation of microbial processes, including aerobic bacterial oxidation of methane, oxidation of ammonium by bacteria and archaea, metal reduction, and sulfide oxidation at the chemocline, and bacterial sulfate reduction and anaerobic oxidation of methane by archaea in the anoxic zone. Cell densities for archaea and sulfate reducing bacteria are estimated based on water column biomarker concentrations and compared with CARD-FISH results.     

Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate

The first part of this paper demonstrated the existence of bias in GCM-derived precipitation series, downscaled using either a statistical technique (here the Statistical Downscaling Model) or dynamical method (here high resolution Regional Climate Model HadRM3) propagating to river flow estimated by a lumped hydrological model. This paper uses the same models and methods for a future time horizon (2080s) and analyses how significant these projected changes are compared to baseline natural variability in four British catchments. The UKCIP02 scenarios, which are widely used in the UK for climate change impact, are also considered. Results show that GCMs are the largest source of uncertainty in future flows. Uncertainties from downscaling techniques and emission scenarios are of similar magnitude, and generally smaller than GCM uncertainty. For catchments where hydrological modelling uncertainty is smaller than GCM variability for baseline flow, this uncertainty can be ignored for future projections, but might be significant otherwise. Predicted changes are not always significant compared to baseline variability, less than 50% of projections suggesting a significant change in monthly flow. Insignificant changes could occur due to climate variability alone and thus cannot be attributed to climate change, but are often ignored in climate change studies and could lead to misleading conclusions. Existing systematic bias in reproducing current climate does impact future projections and must, therefore, be considered when interpreting results. Changes in river flow variability, important for water management planning, can be easily assessed from simple resampling techniques applied to both baseline and future time horizons. Assessing future climate and its potential implication for river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. This two-part paper demonstrates that uncertainty due to hydrological and climate modelling must and can be accounted for to provide sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers.     

Origin of Tertiary to Recent EM- and subduction-like chemical and isotopic signatures in Auca Mahuida region (37°–38°S) and other Patagonian plateau lavas

The alkaline volcanic rocks of the 1.8–0.9 Ma Auca Mahuida and post-mid-Pliocene Rio Colorado backarc volcanic fields east of the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone at ~37°–38°S have pronounced intraplate-like chemical signatures with some striking similarities to oceanic DM-EM1-like lavas of the south Atlantic Tristan da Cunha type. These backarc lavas are considered to have formed as a series of mantle batches typified by 4–7 % melting, with decompression melting initiating in a garnet-bearing mantle above a steepening subduction zone, and final equilibration occurring near the base of a ~65- to 70-km-thick lithosphere at temperatures of ~1,350–1,380 °C. Evolved Auca Mahuida mugearite to trachytic samples are best explained by crystal fractionation with limited mixing of partial melts of recently underplated basalts, in line with isotopic signatures that preclude significant radiogenic contamination in a preexisting refractory crust. Higher Ba/La and subtly higher La/Ta ratios than in nearby ~24–20 Ma primitive basalts or oceanic (OIB) lavas are attributed to the residual effects of slab fluids introduced during a shallow subduction episode recorded in the arc-like chemistry of the adjacent 7–4 Ma Chachahuén volcanic complex. Positive Sr, K and Ba spikes on mantle-normalized patterns of both primitive Auca Mahuida and ~24–20 Ma basalts, like those in EM-like OIB basalts, are attributed to mixing of continental lithosphere into the asthenosphere. In Patagonia, this mixing is suggested to have peaked as the South America continent accommodated to major late Oligocene plate convergence changes, as similar Sr, K and Ba spikes and DM-EM1 signatures are absent in ~50–30 Ma backarc lavas north of 51°S, and all of those south of 51°S. Introduction of an EM1-like component associated with lateral mantle flow of a Tristan da Cunha source is largely precluded by its Cretaceous age and distance to Patagonia.     

Understanding governance and networks: EU-US interactions and the regulation of genetically modified organisms

EU-US (European Union-United States) interactions in relation to the regulation of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been examined in detail in recent years. To do this scholars have tended to focus on a small number of high profile processes, such as the formal complaint of the US to the World Trade Organisation regarding the regulation of GMOs in the Europe. It is important to analyse developments of this kind but overemphasis on them has also lead to a distorted view of the case and a failure to appreciate the significance of other, less visible, types of interaction. In this paper we focus instead on trying to understand the roles played by various EU-US transnational networks—The Transatlantic Business Dialogue, The Transatlantic Economic Partnership, The Transatlantic Consumer Dialogue, The Transatlantic Environmental Dialogue and the EU-US Consultative Forum on Biotechnology. These networks have been trying to shape the regulation of GMOs in both jurisdictions since the mid 1990s. By analysing them through a ‘governance lens’ we find that we can better understand EU-US interactions and the dynamics and influences around the regulation of GMOs. This gives us valuable insights into processes of contemporary governance.     

Tracking eutrophication in Taihu Lake using the diatom record: potential and problems

Taihu Lake is the third largest freshwater lake in China and has been experiencing eutrophication problems for several decades. Diatoms in short sediment cores from three bays in northern Taihu Lake were studied in addition to 1-year of seasonal phytoplankton samples in order to evaluate the rate and magnitude of nutrient enrichment. The dominant species found in the phytoplankton samples appeared in high percentages in the surface sediment samples, suggesting that the latter faithfully record the modern diatom flora. The diatom preservation status varied among the three cores, while in all cores the preservation deteriorated with sediment depth. Due to the superior diatom preservation in the core from Mashan Bay, the fossil diatom record of this core and an established diatom total phosphorus (TP) transfer function were used to reconstruct the nutrient history of Taihu Lake. Diatom assemblages changed from Aulacoseira-dominated to other eutrophic planktonic species, such as Stephanodiscus minutulus, Cyclostephanos tholiformis, Cyclotella atomus, C. meneghiniana and S. hantzschii in ca. 1980. Diatom-inferred TP concentrations exhibited little change prior to 1980, with values around 50 μg/l. However, after 1980 TP concentrations increased significantly and remained in excess of 100 μg/l, reflecting eutrophication of Taihu Lake. Comparison with TP measurements in the water column from 1988 to 2004, as well as the analogue analysis among fossil and modern samples, demonstrates that the diatom-TP inference model can reliably hindcast past TP concentrations. Therefore, the baseline TP value of about 50 μg/l, can be used as a restoration target for Taihu Lake. However, due to the complexity of this very large, shallow aquatic ecosystem, caution should be exercised when employing the diatom record to track eutrophication. Further studies on the mechanism of diatom distribution, evolution and preservation are recommended for Taihu Lake.     

The accumulation rate of meteorite falls at the Earth's surface: The view from Roosevelt County,New Mexico

Abstract— The discovery of 154 meteorite fragments within an 11 km² area of wind-excavated basins in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, permits a new calculation of the accumulation rate of meteorite falls at the Earth's surface. Thermoluminescence dating of the coversand unit comprising the prime recovery surface suggests the maximum terrestrial age of the meteorites to be about 16.0 ka. The 68 meteorite fragments subjected to petrological analyses represent a minimum of 49 individual falls. Collection bias has largely excluded carbonaceous chondrites and achondrites, requiring the accumulation rate derived from the recovered samples to be increased by a factor of 1.25. Terrestrial weathering destroying ordinary chondrites can be modelled as a first-order decay process with an estimated half-life of 3.5 ± 1.9 ka on the semiarid American High Plains. Having accounted for the age of the recovery surface, area of field searches, pairing of finds, collection bias and weathering half-life, we calculate an accumulation rate of 9.4 × 10² falls/a per 10⁶ km² for falls > 10 g total mass. This figure exceeds the best-constrained previous estimate by more than an order of magnitude. One possible reason for this disparity may be the extraordinary length of the fall record preserved in the surficial geology of Roosevelt County. The high accumulation rate determined for the past 16 ka may point to the existence of periods when the meteorite fall rate was significantly greater than at present.     

Reconstructing the IRAS Point Source Catalog Redshift Survey with a generalized PIZA

We study the influence of different magnetic boundary conditions on the generation of magnetic fields by turbulent convection. It is found that the structure and strength of the generated field in the vicinity of the boundary is strongly dependent on the choice of boundary conditions. In the convective interior, however, the solutions remain largely insensitive to the boundary conditions. In all cases the overall efficiency of the dynamo process remains high with a steady state magnetic energy density between 12 and 25 per cent of the turbulent kinetic energy, and peak field values exceeding the equipartition level. These results support the idea that the solar granulation may constitute a dynamo source for magnetic fields in the quiet photosphere.