Review and revision of Cenozoic tropical planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphy and calibration to the geomagnetic polarity and astronomical time scale

Planktonic foraminifera are widely utilized for the biostratigraphy of Cretaceous and Cenozoic marine sediments and are a fundamental component of Cenozoic chronostratigraphy. The recent enhancements in deep sea drilling recovery, multiple coring and high resolution sampling both offshore and onshore, has improved the planktonic foraminiferal calibrations to magnetostratigraphy and/or modified species ranges. This accumulated new information has allowed many of the planktonic foraminiferal bioevents of the Cenozoic to be revised and the planktonic foraminiferal calibrations to be reassessed. We incorporate these developments and amendments into the existing biostratigraphic zonal scheme.In this paper we present an amended low-latitude (tropical and subtropical) Cenozoic planktonic foraminiferal zonation. We compile 187 revised calibrations of planktonic foraminiferal bioevents from multiple sources for the Cenozoic and have incorporated these recalibrations into a revised Cenozoic planktonic foraminiferal biochronology. We review and synthesize these calibrations to both the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS) of the Cenozoic and astronomical time scale (ATS) of the Neogene and late Paleogene. On the whole, these recalibrations are consistent with the previous work; however, in some cases, they have led to major adjustments to the duration of biochrons. Recalibrations of the early–middle Eocene first appearance datums of Globigerinatheka kugleri, Hantkenina singanoae, Guembelitrioides nuttalli and Turborotalia frontosa have resulted in large changes in the durations of Biochrons E7, E8 and E9. We have introduced (upper Oligocene) Zone O7 utilizing the biostratigraphic utility of ‘Paragloborotalia’ pseudokugleri. For the Neogene Period, major revisions are applied to the fohsellid lineage of the middle Miocene and we have modified the criteria for recognition of Zones M7, M8 and M9, with additional adjustments regarding the Globigerinatella lineage to Zones M2 and M3. The revised and recalibrated datums provide a major advance in biochronologic resolution and a template for future progress of the Cenozoic time scale.     

Does small-scale vertical distribution of juvenile schooling fish affect prey availability to surface-feeding seabirds in the Wadden Sea?

Food availability is a key variable influencing breeding performance and demography of marine top predators. Due to methodological problems, proportionality between fish abundance and availability is often assumed without being explicitly tested. More specifically, better breeding performance of surface-feeding seabirds at times of large prey stocks suggests that prey availability is also a function of prey abundance. Using vertically resolved stow net sampling we tested whether local abundance and length composition of pelagic fish are reliable predictors of the availability of these fish to surface-feeding Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) breeding in the German Wadden Sea. Prey fish were found to concentrate below the maximum diving depth of the terns. Individuals caught close to the surface were in most cases smaller than conspecifics caught at greater depth. Correlations between fish abundance within and out of reach of the terns appeared to be both species- and site-specific rather than driven by overall fish abundance. Vertical distribution patterns of the terns' main prey fish could be explained as anti-predator behavior, reducing prey availability to the terns. In 2007, when breeding performance was much better than in 2006, herring and whiting were much more abundant, suggesting that overall prey abundance may also increase prey availability in habitats other than those represented by the stow net sampling.     

The influence of Holocene tree-line advance and retreat on an arctic lake ecosystem: a multi-proxy study from Kharinei Lake,North Eastern European Russia

A consequence of predicted climate warming will be tree-line advance over large areas of the Russian tundra. Palaeolimnological techniques can be used to provide analogues of how such changes in tree-line advance and subsequent retreat affected lake ecosystems in the past. A Holocene sediment core taken from Kharinei Lake (Russia) was dated radiometrically and used for multi-proxy analyses with the aim of determining how climate and tree-line dynamics affected the productivity, community structure, carbon cycling and light regime in the lake. Pollen and macrofossil analyses were used to determine the dates of the arrival and retreat of birch and spruce forest. C:N ratios and percent loss-on-ignition were used to infer past changes in sediment organic matter. Visible-near-infrared spectroscopy and diatom analysis were used to infer past changes in lake-water carbon. Algal pigments and aquatic macrophytes were used to determine changes in lake productivity and light. Chironomids together with remains of the aquatic flora and fauna were used to provide information on past July temperature and continentality. Lake sedimentation was initiated shortly before 11,000 cal. years BP, when both chironomid- and pollen-inferred temperature reconstructions suggest higher summer temperatures than present, between 1 and 2°C warmer, and lake productivity was relatively high. A few trees were already present at this time. The spruce forest expanded at 8,000 cal. year BP remaining in the vicinity of the lake until 3,500 cal. year BP. This period coincided with a high concentration of organic material in the water column, and relatively high benthic productivity, as indicated by a high benthic: planktonic diatom ratio. After tree-line retreat, the optical transparency of the lake increased, and it became more open and exposed, and was thus subject to greater water-column mixing resulting in a higher abundance of diatom phytoplankton, especially heavily silicified Aulocoseira species. The colder climate resulted in a shorter ice-free period, the lake was less productive and there was a loss of aquatic macrophytes. Increased wind-induced mixing following forest retreat had a greater influence on the lake ecosystem than the effects of decreasing organic matter concentration and increased light penetration.     

Olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia craters on (4) Vesta from Dawn FC

We present an analysis of olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia craters using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) color data. Our results confirm the existence of olivine‐rich materials at these localities as described by Ammannito et al. ( 2013a ) using Visual Infrared Spectrometer (VIR) data. Analyzing laboratory spectra of various howardite–eucrite–diogenite meteorites, high‐Ca pyroxenes, olivines, and olivine‐orthopyroxene mixtures, we derive three FC spectral band parameters that are indicators of olivine‐rich materials. Combining the three band parameters allows us, for the first time, to reliably identify sites showing modal olivine contents >40%. The olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia are mapped using higher spatial resolution FC data. The exposures are located on the slopes of outer/inner crater walls, on the floor of Arruntia, in the ejecta, as well as in nearby fresh small impact craters. The spatial extent of the exposures ranges from a few hundred meters to few kilometers. The olivine‐rich exposures are in accordance with both the magma ocean and the serial magmatism model (e.g., Righter and Drake 1997 ; Yamaguchi et al. 1997 ). However, it remains unsolved why the olivine‐rich materials are mainly concentrated in the northern hemisphere (approximately 36–42°N, 46–74°E) and are almost absent in the Rheasilvia basin.     

Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management and viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An important winemaking region is the Portuguese Douro Valley, which is known by its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between atmospheric factors and wine parameters is of great relevance for the region. A multivariate linear regression analysis of a long wine production series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall and cool temperatures during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development (February-March) and warm temperatures during flowering and berry development (May) are generally favourable to high production. The probabilities of occurrence of three production categories (low, normal and high) are also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show that both statistical models are valuable tools for predicting the production in a given year with a lead time of 3–4 months prior to harvest. These statistical models are applied to an ensemble of 16 regional climate model experiments following the SRES A1B scenario to estimate possible future changes. Wine production is projected to increase by about 10 % by the end of the 21^st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25 % to over 60 %. Nevertheless, further model development will be needed to include other aspects that may shape production in the future. In particular, the rising heat stress and/or changes in ripening conditions could limit the projected production increase in future decades.     

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO₂ equivalent using 100-year CH₄ global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH₄ GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH₄ even though CH₄ was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.     

Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world’s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire

Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are the world’s leading cocoa (Thebroma cacao) producing countries; together they produce 53 % of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa contributes 7.5 % of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Côte d’Ivoire and 3.4 % of that of Ghana and is an important cash crop for the rural population in the forest zones of these countries. If progressive climate change affected the climatic suitability for cocoa in West Africa, this would have implications for global cocoa output as well as the national economies and farmer livelihoods, with potential repercussions for forests and natural habitat as cocoa growing regions expand, shrink or shift. The objective of this paper is to present future climate scenarios for the main cocoa growing regions of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire and to predict their impact on the relative suitability of these regions for growing cocoa. These analyses are intended to support the respective countries and supply chain actors in developing strategies for reducing the vulnerability of the cocoa sector to climate change. Based on the current distribution of cocoa growing areas and climate change predictions from 19 Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for cocoa for 2050 using an adapted MAXENT model. According to the model, some current cocoa producing areas will become unsuitable (Lagunes and Sud-Comoe in Côte d’Ivoire) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in agronomic management, and in yet others the climatic suitability for growing cocoa will increase (Kwahu Plateu in Ghana and southwestern Côte d’Ivoire). We recommend the development of site-specific strategies to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa farmers and the sector to future climate change.     

Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years

Existing multi-proxy climate reconstruction methods assume the suitably transformed proxy time series are linearly related to the target climate variable, which is likely a simplifying assumption for many proxy records. Furthermore, with a single exception, these methods face problems with varying temporal resolutions of the proxy data. Here we introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. The resulting unitless composite time series is subsequently calibrated to the instrumental record to provide an estimate of past climate. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset of the recent warming trend.     

Correlation between distribution and shape of VMS deposits and regional deformation patterns,Skellefte district,northern Sweden

The Skellefte district in northern Sweden is host to abundant volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) deposits comprising pyritic, massive, semi-massive and disseminated Zn–Cu–Au ± Pb ores surrounded by disseminated pyrite and with or without stockwork mineralisation. The VMS deposits are associated with Palaeoproterozoic upper crustal extension (D₁) that resulted in the development of normal faults and related transfer faults. The VMS ores formed as sub-seafloor replacement in both felsic volcaniclastic and sedimentary rocks and partly as exhalative deposits within the uppermost part of the volcanic stratigraphy. Subsequently, the district was subjected to deformation (D₂) during crustal shortening. Comparing the distribution of VMS deposits with the regional fault pattern reveals a close spatial relationship of VMS deposits to the faults that formed during crustal extension (D₁) utilising the syn-extensional faults as fluid conduits. Analysing the shape and orientation of VMS ore bodies shows how their deformation pattern mimics those of the hosting structures and results from the overprinting D₂ deformation. Furthermore, regional structural transitions are imitated in the deformation patterns of the ore bodies. Plotting the aspect ratios of VMS ore bodies and the comparison with undeformed equivalents in the Hokuroko district, Japan allow an estimation of apparent strain and show correlation with the D₂ deformation intensity of the certain structural domains. A comparison of the size of VMS deposits with their location shows that the smallest deposits are not related to known high-strain zones and the largest deposits are associated with regional-scale high-strain zones. The comparison of distribution and size with the pattern of high-strain zones provides an important tool for regional-scale mineral exploration in the Skellefte district, whereas the analysis of ore body shape and orientation can aid near-mine exploration activities.     

Hydrothermal dolomitization in a complex geodynamic setting (Lower Palaeozoic,northern Spain)

Burial hydrothermal dolomitization is a common diagenetic modification in sedimentary basins with implications for oil and gas reservoir performance. Outcrop analogues represent an easily accessible source of data to refine the genetic models and assess risk in hydrocarbon exploration and production. The Palaeozoic succession of northern Spain contains numerous excellent exposures of epigenetically dolomitized limestones, particularly in the Carboniferous and Cambrian. The epigenetic dolomites in the Cambrian carbonates of the Láncara Formation are volumetrically small, but have a large aerial distribution across different tectonic units of the Variscan fold and thrust belt. Coarse crystals, abundant saddle dolomite cement, negative δ¹⁸O and fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures between 80°C and 120°C characterize these dolomites, which are petrographically and geochemically similar to the tens of kilometre‐sized hydrothermal dolomites replacing the Upper Carboniferous succession in the same area. In both cases, the dolomitizing fluids are derived from highly evaporated sea water, modified to a limited degree through fluid‐rock interaction. The dolomitization events affecting both Cambrian and Carboniferous strata are probably related to the same post‐orogenic hydrothermal fluid flow. The formation of the post‐collisional (latest Carboniferous) Cantabrian arc fostered dolomitization: the extension related to bending of the arc generated deep‐reaching faults and strike‐slip movements, which favoured the circulation of hot dolomitizing fluids in the outer parts of this orocline. A similar dolomitization process affected other areas of Europe after the main stages of the Variscan orogeny. Dolomitization was a continuous, uninterrupted, isochemical process. Limestone replacement resulted in a major porosity redistribution and focused the fluid flow into the newly created porous zones. Replacement was followed immediately by partial to complete cementation of the pores (including zebra fabrics and vugs) with saddle dolomite. The amount of porosity left depends on the volume of cement and therefore on the volume of fluids available.