Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest

We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.     

Impacts of climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland

This work studied the temporal and spatial variability of the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland under current and changing climatic conditions until the end of this century. The study was based on a snow accumulation model in which cumulative precipitation, air temperature and wind speed were used as input variables. The risk was analyzed in terms of the number of days per year when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded 20 kg m^???2. Based on the risk, the forest area and mean carbon stock of seedling, young thinning and advanced thinning stands at risk were calculated. Furthermore, the number of 5-day periods, when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded a risk limit, was calculated for the current and changing climatic conditions in order to study the frequency of damaging snowfalls. Compared to the baseline period 1961–1990, the risk of snow-induced forest damage and the amount of damaging snowfalls were predicted to decrease from the first 30-year period (1991–2020) onwards. Over the whole country, the mean annual number of risk days decreased by 11%, 23% and 56% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively, compared to the baseline period. In the most hazardous areas in north-western and north-eastern Finland, the number of risk days decreased from the baseline period of over 30 days to about 8 days per year at the end of the century. Correspondingly, the shares of the forest area at risk were 1.9%, 2.0% and 1.0% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively. The highest mean annual carbon stocks of young stands at risk were found in central, north-eastern and north-western Finland in the first and second 30-year period, varying between 0.6 and 1.2 Mg C ha^???1 year^???1, meaning at highest 3% of the mean carbon stock (Mg C stem wood ha^???1) of those areas. This study showed that although the risk of snow-induced forest damage was mainly affected by changes in critical weather events, the development of growing stock under the changing climatic conditions also had an effect on the risk assessment. However, timely management of forest stands in the areas with a high risk of snow-induced damage contributes to the trees’ increased resistance to the damage.     

The impact of the PBL scheme and the vertical distribution of model layers on simulations of Alpine foehn

Summary This paper investigates the influence of the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization and the vertical distribution of model layers on simulations of an Alpine foehn case that was observed during the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) in autumn 1999. The study is based on the PSU/NCAR MM5 modelling system and combines five different PBL schemes with three model layer settings, which mainly differ in the height above ground of the lowest model level (z ₁). Specifically, z ₁ takes values of about 7 m, 22 m and 36 m, and the experiments with z ₁ = 7 m are set up such that the second model level is located at z = 36 m. To assess if the different model setups have a systematic impact on the model performance, the simulation results are compared against wind lidar, radiosonde and surface measurements gathered along the Austrian Wipp Valley. Moreover, the dependence of the simulated wind and temperature fields at a given height (36 m above ground) on z ₁ is examined for several different regions. Our validation results show that at least over the Wipp Valley, the dependence of the model skill on z ₁ tends to be larger and more systematic than the impact of the PBL scheme. The agreement of the simulated wind field with observations tends to benefit from moving the lowest model layer closer to the ground, which appears to be related to the dependence of lee-side flow separation on z ₁. However, the simulated 2 m-temperatures are closest to observations for the intermediate z ₁ of 22 m. This is mainly related to the fact that the simulated low-level temperatures decrease systematically with decreasing z ₁ for all PBL schemes, turning a positive bias at z ₁ = 36 m into a negative bias at z ₁ = 7 m. The systematic z ₁-dependence is also observed for the temperatures at a fixed height of 36 m, indicating a deficiency in the self-consistency of the model results that is not related to a specific PBL formulation. Possible reasons for this deficiency are discussed in the paper. On the other hand, a systematic z ₁-dependence of the 36-m wind speed is encountered only for one out of the five PBL schemes. This turns out to be related to an unrealistic profile of the vertical mixing coefficient. Correspondence: Günther Z?ngl, Meteorologisches Institut der Universitat München, 80333 München, Germany     

Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)

Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model were for the first time used under the pseudo-climate simulation approach, to study the parameters of an extreme storm in the Baltic Sea area. We reconstructed the met-ocean conditions during the historical storm Gudrun (which caused a record-high +275 cm surge in Pärnu Bay on 9 January 2005) and simulated the future equivalent of Gudrun by modifying the background conditions using monthly mean value differences in sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric air temperature and relative humidity from MIROC5 in accordance with the IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The simulated storm route and storm surge parameters were in good accordance with the observed ones. Despite expecting the continuation of recently observed intensification of cyclonic activity in winter months, our numerical simulations showed that intensity of the strongest storms and storm surges in the Baltic Sea might not increase by the end of twenty-first century. Unlike tropical cyclones, which derive their energy from the increasing SST, the extratropical cyclones (ETCs) harvest their primary energy from the thermal differences on the sides of the polar front, which may decrease if the Arctic warms up. For climatological generalizations on future ETCs, however, it is necessary to re-calculate a larger number of storms, including those with different tracks and in different thermal conditions.     

From Discrete Gravity Survey Data to a High-resolution Gravity Field Representation in the Nordic-Baltic Region

The deduction of a regularly spaced gravity anomaly grid from scattered survey data is studied, addressing mainly two aspects: reduction of gravity to anomalies and subsequent interpolation by various methods. The problem is illustrated in a heterogeneous study area and contrasting test areas including mountains, low terrains, and a marine area. Provided with realistic error estimates, Least Squares Collocation interpolation of Residual Terrain Model anomalies yields the highest quality gravity grid. In most cases, the Bouguer reduction and other interpolation methods tested are equally viable. However, spline-based interpolation should be avoided in marine areas with trackwise survey data.     

Accurate and versatile equations of state for the Sun and Sun-like stars

For models of the Sun and Sun-like stars, a high-quality equation of state is crucial. In addition, helioseismic and asteroseismic observations also put constraints on the physical formalisms. Thus, they effectively turn the Sun and the stars into laboratories for dense plasmas. Currently, the main astrophysical beneficiary of a good equation of state is the determination of the chemical composition. Here, seismic data have supplemented spectroscopic information. Recently, there has been theoretical progress in the equation of state, thanks to renewed rigorous and phenomenological approaches.     

Damage field and site effects: multidisciplinary studies of the 1964 earthquake series in Central Switzerland

Central Switzerland shows comparatively high seismic activity by Swiss standards. Many historical earthquakes are known and several of them caused damage. The last major event dates back to 1964 and has the characteristics of an earthquake swarm. Among dozens of felt shocks were two main shocks (Mw = 5 and 5.7) that moderately damaged a limited area with hundreds of buildings suffering loss. Our aim here was to reconstruct the damage field and to analyze whether it was influenced by site effects. Given the existence of a contemporary damage assessment and other historical sources, we could describe the damage field in detail. For about 95% of the affected buildings, we could reconstruct the location and extent of loss, using assessments from the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS 98). Spatial analysis of the resulting data showed that most losses were concentrated in the villages of Sarnen and Kerns. Damage to residential houses and barns was by far most frequent (90%), but expensive losses to the relatively few sacral buildings were responsible for almost 50% of the repair costs. We compared the damage data with deposit thickness and soil composition and carried out field experiments using H/V spectral ratios to measure the fundamental frequency of ground resonance at 75 sites to estimate the frequency band in which amplification occurs. Our results show that locations on both thick fluviatile sediments and large alluvial cones showed higher intensities than did other ground types. Moreover, at some sites, intensity was probably increased by a layer of weathered rock below thin deposits.     

A multiple-code simulation study of the long-term EDZ evolution of geological nuclear waste repositories

This simulation study shows how widely different model approaches can be adapted to model the evolution of the excavation disturbed zone (EDZ) around a heated nuclear waste emplacement drift in fractured rock. The study includes modeling of coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) processes, with simplified consideration of chemical coupling in terms of time-dependent strength degradation or subcritical crack growth. The different model approaches applied in this study include boundary element, finite element, finite difference, particle mechanics, and elasto-plastic cellular automata methods. The simulation results indicate that thermally induced differential stresses near the top of the emplacement drift may cause progressive failure and permeability changes during the first 100 years (i.e., after emplacement and drift closure). Moreover, the results indicate that time-dependent mechanical changes may play only a small role during the first 100 years of increasing temperature and thermal stress, whereas such time-dependency is insignificant after peak temperature, because of decreasing thermal stress.