Seasonal prediction of African precipitation with ECHAM4–T42 ensemble simulations using a multivariate MOS re-calibration scheme

A 15 member ensemble of 20th century simulations using the ECHAM4–T42 atmospheric GCM is utilized to investigate the potential predictability of interannual variations of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Common boundary conditions are the global sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice extent. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) between observed and ensemble mean ECHAM4 precipitation over Africa is applied in order to identify the most predictable anomaly patterns of precipitation and the related SST anomalies. The CCA is then used to formulate a re-calibration approach similar to model output statistics (MOS) and to derive precipitation forecasts over Africa. Predictand is the climate research unit (CRU) gridded precipitation over Africa. As predictor we use observed SST anomalies, ensemble mean precipitation over Africa and a combined vector of mean sea level pressure, streamfunction and velocity potential at 850 hPa. The different forecast approaches are compared. Most skill for African precipitation forecasts is provided by tropical Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea) SST anomalies which mainly affect rainfall over the Guinean coast and Sahel. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences southern and East Africa, however with a lower skill. Indian Ocean SST anomalies, partly independent from ENSO, have an impact particularly on East Africa. As suggested by the large agreement between the simulated and observed precipitation, the ECHAM4 rainfall provides a skillful predictor for CRU precipitation over Africa. However, MOS re-calibration is needed in order to provide skillful forecasts. Forecasts using MOS re-calibrated model precipitation are at least as skillful as forecast using dynamical variables from the model or instantaneous SST. In many cases, MOS re-calibrated precipitation forecasts provide more skill. However, differences are not systematic for all regions and seasons, and often small.     

Microbially induced cementation of carbonate sands: are micritic meniscus cements good indicators of vadose diagenesis?

Characteristic fabrics such as micrite envelopes, calcified filaments and micritic grain-to-grain bridges are observed in a modern subtidal firmground (Wood Cay, Bahamas) and in a variety of firm- and hardgrounds of Lower Cretaceous and Upper Jurassic platform carbonates (Swiss and French Jura Mountains). Their similarity to microbial fabrics described in grapestones and in intertidal to continental vadose environments suggests that microbial activity played an important role in the initial stabilization and cementation of carbonate sands. 'Meniscus-type cements' (to distinguish them from vadose meniscus cements), which clearly formed in subtidal environments, are related to filament calcification, trapping of percolating micrite and microbially induced carbonate formation. Such meniscus-type cements are commonly micritic, but meniscus-shaped precipitation of fibrous aragonite or sparitic calcite around organic filaments is also observed. Therefore, an interpretation of vadose early diagenesis should not be based on meniscus cements alone. Similarly, subtidally formed filamentous structures can strongly resemble alveolar septal structures and be interpreted incorrectly as related to subaerial exposure.     

Multi-model Bayesian assessment of climate change in the northern annular mode

A typical question in climate change analysis is whether a certain observed climate characteristic, like a pronounced anomaly or an interdecadal trend, is an indicator of anthropogenic climate change or still in the range of natural variability. Many climatic features are described by one-dimensional index time series, like for instance the global mean temperature or circulation indices. Here, we present a Bayesian classification approach applied to the time series of the northern annular mode (NAM), which is the leading mode of Northern Hemisphere climate variability. After a pronounced negative phase during the 1950s and 1960s, the observed NAM index reveals a distinct positive trend, which is also simulated by various climate model simulations under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The objective of this study is to decide whether the observed temporal evolution of the NAM may be an indicator of global warming. Given a set of prior probabilities for disturbed and undisturbed climate scenarios, the Bayesian decision theorem decides whether the observed NAM trend is classified in a control climate, a greenhouse-gas plus sulphate aerosol climate or a purely greenhouse-gas induced climate as derived from multi-model ensemble simulations.The three climate scenarios are well separated from each other in terms of the 30-year NAM trends. The multi-model ensembles contain a weak but statistically significant climate change signal in the form of an intensification of the NAM. The Bayesian classification suggests that the greenhouse-gas scenario is the most probable explanation for the observed NAM trend since 1960, even if a high prior probability is assigned to the control climate. However, there are still large uncertainties in this classification result because some periods at the end of the 19th century and during the “warm” 1920s are also classified in an anthropogenic climate, although natural forcings are likely responsible for this early NAM intensification. This demonstrates a basic shortcoming of the Bayesian decision theorem when it is based on one-dimensional index time series like the NAM index.     

Distribution patterns and stable carbon isotopic composition of alkanes and alkan-1-ols from plant waxes of African rain forest and savanna C3 species

Leaf wax components of terrestrial plants are an important source of biomass in the geological records of soils, lakes and marine sediments. Relevant to the emerging use of plant wax derived biomarkers as proxies for past vegetation composition this study provides key data for C₃ plants of tropical and subtropical Africa. We present analytical results for 45 savanna species and 24 rain forest plants sampled in their natural habitats. Contents and distribution patterns of long chain n-alkanes (n-C₂₅ to n-C₃₅) and n-alkan-1-ols (n-C₂₄ to n-C₃₄) as well as bulk and molecular carbon isotopic data are presented. The variations of the analysed parameters among different growth forms (herb, shrub, liana and tree) are small within the vegetation zones, whereas characteristic differences occur between the signatures of rain forest and savanna plants. Therefore, we provide averaged histogram representations for rain forest and savanna C₃ plants.The findings were compared to previously published data of typical C₄ grass waxes of tropical and subtropical Africa. Generally, trends to longer n-alkane chains and less negative carbon isotopic values are evident from rain forest over C₃ savanna to C₄ vegetation. For n-alkanols of rain forest plants the maximum of the averaged distribution pattern is between those of C₃ savanna plants and C₄ grasses. The averaged presentations for tropical and subtropical vegetation and their characteristics may constitute useful biomarker proxies for studies analysing the expansion and contraction of African vegetation zones.     

Extended orbitally forced palaeoclimatic records from the equatorial Atlantic Ceara Rise

We extend existing high-resolution Oligocene–Miocene proxy records from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 154. The extended record spans the time interval from 17.86 to 26.5 Ma. The data are age calibrated against a new astronomical solution that affords a re-evaluation of the intricate interaction between orbital (“Milankovitch”) forcing of the climate and ocean system, and the fidelity with which this forcing is recorded in oxygen and carbon stable isotope measurements from benthic foraminifera, and associated lithological proxy records of magnetic susceptibility, colour reflectance, and the measured sand fraction. Our records show a very strong continual imprint of the Earth's obliquity cycle, modulate in amplitude every , a very strong eccentricity signal in the carbon isotope records, and a strong, but probably local, imprint of climatic precession on the coarse fraction and magnetic susceptibility records. Our data allowed us to evaluate how the interaction of long, multi-million year beats in the Earth's eccentricity and obliquity are implicated in the waxing and waning of ice-sheets, presumably on Antarctica. Our refined age model confirms the revised age of the Oligocene–Miocene boundary, previously established by analysis of the lithological data, and allows a strong correlation with the geomagnetic time scale by comparison with data from ODP Site 1090, Southern Ocean.     

Environmental Governance Meets Reality: A Micro-Scale Perspective on Sustainability Certification Schemes for Oil Palm Smallholders in Jambi,Sumatra

Abstract

Multi-stakeholder sustainability certification schemes have become a favorite instrument for applying good governance, though studies indicate their inefficiency at the producer level. In this study, we used a mixed-method approach to first, map the institutional context of independent oil-palm smallholders in rural Sumatra while, second, reflecting upon the impact of the Smallholder Standard proposed by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil on smallholder management practices. We hold that non-recognition of micro-scale perspectives within governance processes may partially explain noncompliance with certification principles among smallholders. The Smallholder Standard appears unable to mitigate challenges important for smallholders, who in turn cannot properly comply with it, due to problems including weather instability and high management costs. We suggest that certification schemes need to work on some overlooked but essential preconditions of good governance, namely gaining micro-level visibility and acceptance.     

Geo-/Object-Coding for Local-Change Assessment

Missing availability of reliable and specific landscape data may pose substantial restrictions to successful exploitation of remote sensing data and fast implementation of GIS (Geo-Information Systems). The possibilities to document conditions with high spacial resolution at a given time and to review changing aspects by different disciplines represent opportunities for complex environmental programs.The article covers: geodata acquisition and processing, research, execution, and ergonomical/cognitive aspects. Application in inpenetrable terrain for research, landuse, and engineering requirements proved the feasibility especially in areas with high demand for timely, accurate, and comprehensive surveys.Airborne close-range sensing was developed to survey localities and regions. It is no competition to global-change monitoring and large area are mapping programs possible with remote sensing. Substituting only the bulk of field-work, leaving time for in-depth review in the field or in the office, the system provides a possibility to restudy points of interest.Exploitation of advanced metric cameras, specialized airborne platforms, and spatial overlay, recognition, and discrimination techniques form the backbone of the TOPOGRAMM approach. Multi-sectoral, multi-temporal, multi-spectral survey and processing methods rely basically on enlarged image scales additional to conventional aero-photogrammetry and analytic plotting. Measurements and identification, not primarily interpretation, allow to establish high-fidelity and high resolution geo-frameworks. Focussing on micro- and mesoscales, no emphasis is given to highest geometric accuracy used for geodetic surveys. Drawing near to the object allows extraction of thematical and semantical information, dimensions, and phenomelogy of objects hitherto only singularily available.

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Neotectonic basin and landscape evolution in the Eastern Cordillera of NW Argentina,Humahuaca Basin (~24°S)

The intermontane Quebrada de Humahuaca Basin (Humahuaca Basin) in the Eastern Cordillera of the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina (23°–24°S) records the evolution of a formerly contiguous foreland‐basin setting to an intermontane depositional environment during the late stages of Cenozoic Andean mountain building. This basin has been and continues to be subject to shortening and surface uplift, which has resulted in the establishment of an orographic barrier for easterly sourced moisture‐bearing winds along its eastern margin, followed by leeward aridification. We present new U–Pb zircon ages and palaeocurrent reconstructions suggesting that from at least 6 Ma until 4.2 Ma, the Humahuaca Basin was an integral part of a largely contiguous depositional system that became progressively decoupled from the foreland as deformation migrated eastward. The Humahuaca Basin experienced multiple cycles of severed hydrological conditions and subsequent re‐captured drainage, fluvial connectivity with the foreland and sediment evacuation. Depositional and structural relationships among faults, regional unconformities and deformed landforms reveal a general pattern of intrabasin deformation that appears to be associated with different cycles of alluviation and basin excavation in which deformation is focused on basin‐internal structures during or subsequent to phases of large‐scale sediment removal.