Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

The comparative behavior of apatite‐zircon U‐Pb systems in Apollo 14 breccias: Implications for the thermal history of the Fra Mauro Formation

Abstract— We report secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) U‐Pb analyses of zircon and apatite from four breccia samples from the Apollo 14 landing site. The zircon and apatite grains occur as cogenetic minerals in lithic clasts in two of the breccias and as unrelated mineral clasts in the matrices of the other two. SIMS U‐Pb analyses show that the ages of zircon grains range from 4023 ± 24 Ma to 4342 ± 5 Ma, whereas all apatite grains define an isochron corresponding to an age of 3926 ± 3 Ma. The disparity in the ages of cogenetic apatite and zircon demonstrates that the apatite U‐Pb systems have been completely reset at 3926 ± 3 Ma, whereas the U‐Pb system of zircon has not been noticeably disturbed at this time. The apatite U‐Pb age is slightly older than the ages determined by other methods on Apollo 14 materials highlighting need to reconcile decay constants used for the U‐Pb, Ar‐Ar and Rb‐Sr systems. We interpret the apatite age as a time of formation of the Fra Mauro Formation. If the interpretation of this Formation as an Imbrium ejecta is correct, apatite also determines the timing of Imbrium impact. The contrast in the Pb loss behavior of apatite and zircon places constraints on the temperature history of the Apollo 14 breccias and we estimate, from the experimentally determined Pb diffusion constants and an approximation of the original depth of the excavated samples in the Fra Mauro Formation, that the breccias experienced an initial temperature of about 1300–1100 °C, but cooled within the first five to ten years.     

Limits on the trapping of atmospheric CH4 in martian polar ice analogs

Recent detection of methane (CH₄) on Mars has generated interest in possible biological or geological sources, but the factors responsible for the reported variability are not understood. Here we explore one potential sink that might affect the seasonal cycling of CH₄ on Mars - trapping in ices deposited on the surface. Our apparatus consisted of a high-vacuum chamber in which three different Mars ice analogs (water, carbon dioxide, and carbon dioxide clathrate hydrates) were deposited in the presence of CH₄ gas. The ices were monitored for spectroscopic evidence of CH₄ trapping using transmission Fourier-Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, and during subsequent sublimation of the ice films the vapor composition was measured using mass spectrometry (MS). Trapping of CH₄ in water ice was confirmed at deposition temperatures <100 K which is consistent with previous work, thus validating the experimental methods. However, no trapping of CH₄ was observed in the ice analogs studied at warmer temperatures (140 K for H₂O and CO₂ clathrate, 90 K for CO₂ snow) with approximately 10 mTorr CH₄ in the chamber. From experimental detection limits these results provide an upper limit of 0.02 for the atmosphere/ice trapping ratio of CH₄. If it is assumed that the trapping mechanism is linear with CH₄ partial pressure and can be extrapolated to Mars, this upper limit would indicate that less than 1% is expected to be trapped from the largest reported CH₄ plume, and therefore does not represent a significant sink for CH₄.     

Melt inclusion constraints on petrogenesis of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption,Iceland

The 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption, on the Bárðarbunga volcanic system in central Iceland, was one of the best-monitored basaltic fissure eruptions that has ever occurred, and presents a unique opportunity to link petrological and geochemical data with geophysical observations during a major rifting episode. We present major and trace element analyses of melt inclusions and matrix glasses from a suite of ten samples collected over the course of the Holuhraun eruption. The diversity of trace element ratios such as La/Yb in Holuhraun melt inclusions reveals that the magma evolved via concurrent mixing and crystallization of diverse primary melts in the mid-crust. Using olivine–plagioclase–augite–melt (OPAM) barometry, we calculate that the Holuhraun carrier melt equilibrated at 2.1?±?0.7 kbar (7.5?±?2.5 km), which is in agreement with the depths of earthquakes (6?±?1 km) between Bárðarbunga central volcano and the eruption site in the days preceding eruption onset. Using the same approach, melt inclusions equilibrated at pressures between 0.5 and 8.0 kbar, with the most probable pressure being 3.2 kbar. Diffusion chronometry reveals minimum residence timescales of 1–12 days for melt inclusion-bearing macrocrysts in the Holuhraun carrier melt. By combining timescales of diffusive dehydration of melt inclusions with the calculated pressure of H₂O saturation for the Holuhraun magma, we calculate indicative magma ascent rates of 0.12–0.29 m s^?1. Our petrological and geochemical data are consistent with lateral magma transport from Bárðarbunga volcano to the eruption site in a shallow- to mid-crustal dyke, as has been suggested on the basis of seismic and geodetic datasets. This result is a significant step forward in reconciling petrological and geophysical interpretations of magma transport during volcano-tectonic episodes, and provides a critical framework for the interpretation of premonitory seismic and geodetic data in volcanically active regions.     

Gases and trace elements in soils at the North Silver Bell deposit, Pima County, Arizona

Soil samples were collected over the North Silver Bell porphyry copper deposit near Tucson, Arizona. Volatile elements and compounds in gases derived from the soils and metallic elements in the soils were analyzed in order: (1) to see which volatile constituents of the soils might be indicative of the ore body or the alteration zones; and (2) to distinguish the ore and alteration zones by comparison of trace elements in the soil.Plots of analytical data on trace elements in soils indicated a typical distribution pattern for metals around a porphyry copper deposit, with copper, molybdenum, and arsenic concentrations higher over the ore body, and zinc, lead, and silver concentrations higher over the alteration zones.Higher than average concentrations of helium, carbon disulfide, and sulfur dioxide adsorbed on soils were found over the ore body, whereas higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbonyl sulfide were found over the alteration zones.     

Discourse and desalination: Potential impacts of proposed climate change adaptation interventions in the Arizona–Sonora border region

The specter of climate change threatens fresh water resources along the U.S.–Mexico border. Water managers and planners on both sides of the border are promoting desalination—the conversion of seawater or brackish groundwater to fresh water—as an adaptation response that can help meet growing water demands and buffer against the negative impacts of climate change on regional water supplies. However, the uneven distribution of costs and benefits of this expensive, energy-intensive technology is likely to exacerbate existing social inequalities in the border zone. In this paper, we examine the discourses employed in the construction of the climate problem and proposed solutions. We focus our analysis on a proposed Arizona–Sonora binational desalination project and use insights from risk and hazards literature to analyze how, why, and to what effect desalination is emerging as a preferred climate change adaptation response. Our risk analysis shows that while desalination technology can reduce some vulnerabilities (e.g., future water supply), it can also introduce new vulnerabilities by compounding the water-energy nexus, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, inducing urban growth, producing brine discharge and chemical pollutants, shifting geopolitical relations of water security, and increasing water prices. Additionally, a high-tech and path-dependent response will likely result in increased reliance on technical expertise, less opportunity for participatory decision-making and reduced flexibility. The paper concludes by proposing alternative adaptation responses that can offer greater flexibility, are less path dependent, incorporate social learning, and target the poorest and most vulnerable members of the community. These alternatives can build greater adaptive capacity and ensure equity.     

Ecology, shell morphology, anatomy and sperm ultrastructure of the caenogastropod Pyrgula annulata, with a discussion of the relationship between the ‘Pyrgulidae’ and Caspian and Baikalian Rissooideans

The composition of the Pyrgulidae and its relationships to other member families of the caenogastropod superfamily Rissooidea are examined after a consideration of new anatomical (including gross anatomy, sperm ultrastructure), conchological (including protoconch features), ecological, biogeographical and palaeontological data and a re-evaluation of existing literature. Pyrgulidae can be distinguished from hydrobiids unequivocally only with the aid of the radula. Sperm ultrastructural features suggest a very close relationship between the Pyrgulidae, the Hydrobiidae and the Bithyniidae (in fact no family-diagnostic sperm characters can be found to separate these three taxa). Based upon neontological and fossil evidence it is likely that pyrgulids represent a Miocene offshoot from a paratethyal hydrobiid lineage. Pyrgulids may also represent the stock from which the baicaliids arose, in which case the Pyrgulidae must be considered a paraphyletic group. The huge biogeographic gap between the Caspian Sea and Lake Baikal is to some extent bridged by the finding of a Neogene pyrgulid from the Altai Mountains. An alternative scenario for the origin of baicaliids is presented.     

Genetic variation among age-classes of the mangrove Avicennia marina in clean and contaminated sediments

An examination was made of the genetic variation with age in mangrove populations in two estuaries in south-east Australia, one contaminated, the other uncontaminated. Sediment nutrient and metal levels, and isozyme/allozyme complements were measured in three age-classes in four stands in each estuary, to identify site and intergenerational genetic composition, and influences of sediment contamination. Within each river, there were greater genetic distances among the age-classes than among sampling sites. A downstream gradient of genetic distance was found in the uncontaminated river, but not the contaminated one, where genetic distances seemed to reflect site-specific factors, though apparently not the present sediment metal or nutrient levels. It appears that genetic distances in the polluted river may reflect past fluctuations in pollution pressures. In both rivers, genetic distances indicate that the mangroves within one estuary form one population, with 'neighbourhood' differentiation.     

Whole-bird models for the magnetic cleansing of oiled feathers

Iron powder, a promising dry-cleansing agent for oiled feathers where both the contaminant and the cleansing agent may be harvested magnetically, has been tested on the plumage of whole-bird models. The breast and back plumage of Mallard Duck (Anas platyrhynchos) and Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor) carcasses were patch-contaminated with commercial-grade engine oil, three different crude oils, and an oil/seawater emulsion. The plumage was then subjected to a magnetic cleansing protocol. The contaminant removal was assessed gravimetrically and was found to reflect the outcomes for a previously reported in vitro study using feather clusters. Between 92-98% of the contaminants, and effectively all of the cleansing agent, were removed from the feathers.