Climate change influences on agricultural research productivity

This paper investigates the impacts of climate change on US returns to research investments on agricultural productivity. We examine this using a historical data set in a panel time-series econometric model of state agricultural productivity. The fitted model allows derivation of the rate of return to research investments and the effects of climate change thereon. We find climate change is altering the rate of return to public agricultural research in a spatially heterogeneous manner. Increases in precipitation raise returns to research, while the impact of higher temperatures varies by region, are negative in Southern areas, particularly the Southern Plains, and positive in northern areas. We simulate the impact of projected climate change and find cases where agricultural productivity is reduced, for example in the Southern Plains. Finally, we consider the amount of research investment that is needed to adapt to overcome the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. Under the 2100 scenario, a 7–17 % increase in total US research investment is needed to adapt, but effects by region differ greatly—some requiring little changes and the Southern Plain requiring an increase as high as 57 %.     

The NOAA Goes-12 Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) 2. Performance

The Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) was launched on 23 July 2001 on NOAAs GOES-12 satellite and completed post-launch testing on 20 December 2001. It was brought into operations on 21 January 2003. This paper documents SXI performance and calibrations prior to an instrument degradation that occurred on 5 November 2003 and thus covers more than 420000 soft X-ray images of the Sun. This paper details component-level as well as full-system calibrations characterizing the spatial and spectral performance of the instrument, including the grazing-incidence mirror, filters, and the properties of the MCP-intensified CCD detector system. Routine image corrections are also described. These include background (dark current) subtraction, flat-fielding, off-band light-leak correction, and image pointing and timing considerations. In addition, a signal-to-noise analysis is presented. The information contained in this study is intended to enable researchers to conduct quantitative analysis of GOES-12 SXI images.     

A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km²) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected. The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale.     

Southern high latitude climate variability in the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world

A palynological study of oil exploration wells in the Gippsland Basin southeastern Australia has provided a record of southern high latitude climate variability for the last 12 million years of the Cretaceous greenhouse world. During this time, the vegetation was dominated by a cool to temperate flora of Podocarpaceae, Proteaceae and Nothofagidites spp. at a latitude of 60°S. Milankovitch forced cyclic alternations from drier to wetter climatic periods caused vegetation variability from 72 to 77 Ma. This climate change was probably related to the waxing and waning of ephemeral (100 ky) small ice sheets in Antarctica during times of insolation minima and maxima. Drying and cooling after 72 Ma culminated from 68 to 66 Ma, mirroring trends in global δ¹⁸O data. Quantitative palynofloral analyses have the potential to provide realistic proxies for small-scale climate variability in the predominantly ice-free Late Cretaceous.     

Spectral analysis of continuous redox data reveals geochemical dynamics near the stream–aquifer interface

Changes in streamflow and water table elevation influence oxidation–reduction (redox) conditions near river–aquifer interfaces, with potentially important consequences for solute fluxes and biogeochemical reaction rates. Although continuous measurements of groundwater chemistry can be arduous, in situ sensors reveal chemistry dynamics across a wide range of timescales. We monitored redox potential in an aquifer adjacent to a tidal river and used spectral and wavelet analyses to link redox responses to hydrologic perturbations within the bed and banks. Storms perturb redox potential within both the bed and banks over timescales of days to weeks. Tides drive semidiurnal oscillations in redox potential within the streambed that are absent in the banks. Wavelet analysis shows that tidal redox oscillations in the bed are greatest during late summer (wavelet magnitude of 5.62 mV) when river stage fluctuations are on the order of 70 cm and microbial activity is relatively high. Tidal redox oscillations diminish during the winter (wavelet magnitude of 2.73 mV) when river stage fluctuations are smaller (on the order of 50 cm) and microbial activity is presumably low. Although traditional geochemical observations are often limited to summer baseflow conditions, in situ redox sensing provides continuous, high‐resolution chemical characterization of the subsurface, revealing transport and reaction processes across spatial and temporal scales in aquifers.     

Dispersion of naturally occurring ions in groundwater from various rock types in a portion of the San Pedro river basin, Arizona

The groundwater in an alluvial basin in southern Arizona was analyzed for concentrations of Ca⁺⁺, Mg⁺⁺, Na⁺, and Cl⁻, ions.

The variety of rock types in the area, plus the undisturbed state of the groundwater basin, make comparative rock mineralization-groundwater ionization interpretations possible. Ionic dispersion in groundwater eminating from source areas composed of differing rock types is plotted as isogram maps. These isolated areas of differing mineral composition each exhibit a unique ionic contribution to groundwater. The ion concentrations in groundwater were then used as naturally occurring tracers to determine source areas of recharge and to delineate subsurface barriers to the normal basin flow net. Ion dispersion plots reveal the carbonates of the Dragoon Mountains to be a major contributor of Ca⁺⁺ and Mg⁺⁺ to the deep alluvial portion of the basin. Cl⁻ dispersion patterns show the granitic intrusives of the Tombstone Hills produce a barrier effect in the normal flow pattern of the basin as well as being a contributor of Cl⁻ to groundwater.     

Quaternary volcanism near the Valley of Mexico: implications for subduction zone magmatism and the effects of crustal thickness variations on primitive magma compositions

The Valley of Mexico and surrounding regions of Mexico and Morelos states in central Mexico contain more than 250 Quaternary eruptive vents in addition to the large, composite volcanoes of Popocatépetl, Iztaccíhuatl, and Nevado de Toluca. The eruptive vents include cinder and lava cones, shield volcanoes, and isolated andesitic and dacitic lava flows, and are most numerous in the Sierra Chichináutzin that forms the southern terminus of the Valley of Mexico. The Chichináutzin volcanic field (CVF) is part of the E-W-trending Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB), a subduction-related volcanic arc that extends across Mexico. The crustal thickness beneath the CVF (∼50 km) is the greatest of any region in the MVB and one of the greatest found in any arc worldwide. Lavas and scoriae erupted from vents in the CVF include alkaline basalts and calc-alkaline basaltic andesites, andesites, and dacites. Both alkaline and calc-alkaline groups contain primitive varieties that have whole rock Mg#, MgO, and Ni contents, and liquidus olivine compositions (≤Fo₉₀) that are close to those expected of partial melts from mantle peridotite. Primitive varieties also show a wide range of incompatible trace element abundances (e.g. Ba 210–1080 ppm; Ce 25–100 ppm; Zr 130–280 ppm). Data for primitive calc-alkaline rocks from both the CVF and other regions of the MVB to the west are consistent with magma generation in an underlying mantle wedge that is depleted in Ti, Zr, and Nb and enriched in large ion lithophile (K, Ba, Rb) and light rare earth (La, Ce) elements. Extents of partial melting estimated from Ti and Zr data are lower for primitive calc-alkaline magmas in the CVF than for those from the regions of the MVB to the west where the crust is thinner. The distinctive major element compositions (low CaO and Al₂O₃, high SiO₂) of the primitive calc-alkaline magmas in the CVF indicate a more refractory mantle source beneath this region of thick crust. In contrast, primitive alkaline magmas from the CVF and other regions of the MVB show compositional similarities to intraplate-type alkali basalts erupted behind the arc in the Mexican Basin and Range province. These similarities are consistent with the hypothesis that slab-induced convection in the mantle wedge beneath the MVB causes advection of asthenospheric mantle from behind the arc to the region of magma generation. Trace element systematics of primitive magmas in the MVB reveal substantial variability in both the extent of mantle wedge enrichment by subduction processes and in the composition of mantle heterogeneities that are related to previous extraction of alkaline to sub-alkaline basaltic melts. Received: 23 June 1998 / Accepted: 23 December 1998     

Development of a distributed hydrological model to facilitate watershed management

To facilitate precise and cost-effective watershed management, a simple yet spatially and temporally distributed hydrological model (DHM-WM) was developed. The DHM-WM is based on the Mishra-Singh version of the curve number method, with several modifications: The spatial distribution of soil moisture was considered in moisture updating; the travel time of surface runoff was calculated on a grid cell basis for routing; a simple tile flow module was included as an option. The DHM-WM was tested on a tile-drained agricultural watershed in Indiana, USA. The model with the tile flow module performed well in the study area, providing a balanced water budget and reasonable flow partitioning. The daily coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were 0.58 and 0.56, for the calibration period, and 0.63 and 0.62 for the validation period. The DHM-WM also provides detailed information about the source areas of flow components, the travel time and pathways of surface runoff.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR F.-J. Chang     

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.