What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability

Water resources in semi-arid regions like the Mediterranean Basin are highly vulnerable because of the high variability of weather systems. Additionally, climate change is altering the timing and pattern of water availability in a region where growing populations are placing extra demands on water supplies. Importantly, how reservoirs and dams have an influence on the amount of water resources available is poorly quantified. Therefore, we examine the impact of reservoirs on water resources together with the impact of climate change in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment. We simulated the Susurluk basin (23.779-km²) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We generate results for with (RSV) and without reservoirs (WRSV) scenarios. We run simulations for current and future conditions using dynamically downscaled outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model under two greenhouse gas relative concentration pathways (RCPs) in order to reveal the coupled effect of reservoir and climate impacts. Water resources were then converted to their usages – blue water (water in aquifers and rivers), green water storage (water in the soil) and green water flow (water losses by evaporation and transpiration). The results demonstrate that all water resources except green water flow are projected to decrease under all RCPs compared to the reference period, both long-term and at seasonal scales. However, while water scarcity is expected in the future, reservoir storage is shown to be adequate to overcome this problem. Nevertheless, reservoirs reduce the availability of water, particularly in soil moisture stores, which increases the potential for drought by reducing streamflow. Furthermore, reservoirs cause water losses through evaporation from their open surfaces. We conclude that pressures to protect society from economic damage by building reservoirs have a strong impact on the fluxes of watersheds. This is additional to the effect of climate change on water resources.     

Active fault database of Turkey

We have updated the active fault map of Turkey and built its database within GIS environment. In the study, four distinct active fault types, classified according to geochronological criteria and character, were delineated on the 1:25,000 base map of Turkey. 176 fault segments not included in the former active fault map of Turkey, have been identified and documented. We infer that there are 485 single fault segments which are substantially potential seismic sources. In total 1964 active-fault base-maps were transferred into the GIS environment. Each fault was attributed with key parameters such as class, activity, type, length, trend, and attitude of fault plane. The fault parameters are also supported by slip-rate and seismogenic depth inferred from available GPS, seismological and paleoseismological data. Additionally, expected maximum magnitude for each fault segment was estimated by empirical equations. We present the database in a parametric catalogue of fault segments to be of interest in earthquake engineering and seismotectonics. The study provides essential geological and seismological inputs for regional seismic hazard analysis of all over Turkey and its vicinity.     

Evolution of lithospheric mantle in the north of Nain‐Baft oceanic crust (Neo‐Tethyan ophiolite of Ashin,Central Iran)

This study is focused on a plagioclase‐bearing spinel lherzolite from Chah Loqeh area in the Neo‐Tethyan Ashin ophiolite. It is exposed along the west of left‐lateral strike‐slip Dorouneh Fault in the northwest of Central‐East Iranian Microcontinent. Mineral chemistry (Mg#^olivine < ~ 90, Cr#^{clinopyroxene} < ~ 0.2, Cr#^spinel < ~ 0.5, Al₂O₃^{orthopyroxene} > ~ 2.5 wt%, Al₂O₃^{clinopyroxene} > ~ 4.5 wt%, Al₂O₃^spinel > ~ 41.5 wt%, Na₂O^{clinopyroxene} > ~ 0.11 wt%, and TiO₂^{clinopyroxene} > ~ 0.04 wt%) confirms Ashin lherzolite was originally a mid‐oceanic ridge peridotite with low degrees of partial melting at spinel‐peridotite facies in a lithospheric mantle level. However, some Ashin lherzolites record mantle upwelling and tectonic exhumation at plagioclase‐peridotite facies during oceanic extension and diapiric motion of mantle along Nain‐Baft suture zone. This mantle upwelling is evidenced by some modifications in the modal composition (i.e. subsolidus recrystallization of plagioclase and olivine between pyroxene and spinel) and mineral chemistry (e.g. increase in TiO₂ and Na₂O of clinopyroxene, and TiO₂ and Cr# of spinel and decrease in Mg# of olivine), as a consequence of decompression during a progressive upwelling of mantle. Previous geochronological and geochemical data and increasing the depth of subsolidus plagioclase formation at plagioclase‐peridotite facies from Nain ophiolite (~ 16 km) to Ashin ophiolite (~ 35 km) suggest a south to north closure for the Nain‐Baft oceanic crust in the northwest of Central‐East Iranian Microcontinent.     

Artificial neural network simulation for prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the River Ramganga,Ganges Basin,India

The relation between the water discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the River Ramganga at Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, in the Himalayas, has been modeled using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The current study validates the practical capability and usefulness of this tool for simulating complex nonlinear, real world, river system processes in the Himalayan scenario. The modeling approach is based on the time series data collected from January to December (2008-2010) for Q and SSC. Three ANNs (T1-T3) with different network configurations have been developed and trained using the Levenberg Marquardt Back Propagation Algorithm in the Matlab routines. Networks were optimized using the enumeration technique, and, finally, the best network is used to predict the SSC values for the year 2011. The values thus obtained through the ANN model are compared with the observed values of SSC. The coefficient of determination (R2), for the optimal network was found to be 0.99. The study not only provides insight into ANN modeling in the Himalayan river scenario, but it also focuses on the importance of understanding a river basin and the factors that affect the SSC, before attempting to model it. Despite the temporal variations in the study area, it is possible to model and successfully predict the SSC values with very simplistic ANN models.     

An improved input energy spectrum verified by the shake table tests

Input energy is the principal component of the energy balance equation. It is beneficial to determine, through its components, how the recoverable and irrecoverable energies are distributed within the structural elements. Several equations and attenuation relations to define mass-normalized input energy spectra exist in the literature. They are mainly proposed for elastic systems subjected to far-fault EQs. There is a lack of experimental verification of these proposed spectra. In this paper, experimental assessment was performed to the existing spectra, and further improvements were accomplished. For this purpose, steel cantilever columns were tested on the shake table for two specific historical EQs coincidently having similar spectral acceleration values. Based on the experimental results, a three-part mass-normalized relative input energy spectrum was formulated including soil type, EQ (corner period, intensity, duration, spectral acceleration, and velocity), and structural behavioral characteristics (period and structural damping). The proposed input energy spectrum was experimentally calibrated and numerically validated for various EQs featuring near- and far-field types. Analytical and experimental comparisons were made between the previously developed spectrum and the newly proposed one. The validation studies and the statistical evaluations exposed that the proposed spectrum yielded better agreement with the experimental and numerical results.     

Magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and stability of pre-flare loops

The equilibrium and stability of a loop in which energy storage occurs prior to a solar flare is discussed. Working on the hypothesis, that the onset of the flare begins only after sufficient magnetic energy has been stored in the loop typical values of parameters which describe the equilibrium are found for a magnetic field with a constant twist. The stability of this configuration is examined next and it is shown that for the force-free case, the structure is always unstable to kinking for any degree of twist. However, a slight deviation from the force-free configuration, through the presence of a small positive transverse pressure gradient, can stabilize the loops for moderate degrees of twist. The range of wave-numbers for which instability occurs and the maximum growth rates are also presented. Lastly, it is shown that the pressure gradients required to stabilize a pre-flare loop do not lead to conflict with observations.     

Investigation of the Kumdanlı and surrounding faults on the Eğirdir Lake by conducting ground penetrating radar (GPR) profiles

A ground penetrating radar (GPR) survey was performed on the E?irdir Lake to obtain the structural properties of Kumdanl? and surrounding faults. GPR data was collected along ten profiles in various directions by using 100–200-MHz GPR antennas. The radar sections showed that the Kumdanl? Fault, SW-NE in direction, and also some other neighboring NW-SE normal faults have played an active role in forming the E?irdir-Hoyran Lakes. The deformation and the geometry obtained from the results show that the Kumdanl? Fault is a sinistral strike-slip fault including oblique and segmented displacements. The other faults (Kemerdam? and Akkeçili) have mainly normal fault systems. Their trends are generally NW-SE in direction. It is also observed that they are younger than the Kumdanl? Fault system. These fault properties demonstrate the E?irdir Lake side has an extensional structure trending SW-NE.     

Influence of Seawater on the Suction and Swelling Behavior of Clayey Soils

The present study examines the suction characteristics and swelling behavior of clayey soils when exposed to natural seawater with respect to distilled water. The effects of saline waters on the engineering behavior of soils need to be determined since the salinity of the pore fluid of soils near coastal areas increases continuously. Six clayey soil samples with different mineralogy and characteristics were gathered and tested to determine the suction and swelling characteristics in the presence of natural seawater and distilled water. The results show that the total suction values of the samples are higher in the presence of seawater than in distilled water. The samples with high swelling potential have lower matric suction values than nonswelling soils. Moreover, in contrast to swelling-type soils, the matric suction values of the nonswelling soils remain similar in the presence both distilled water and seawater. The modified free swell index (MFSI) of the samples is well correlated with the liquid limit (LL), plasticity index (PI), and cation exchange capacity (CEC) in distilled water. However, coefficients of determination decreased in the presence of seawater. Also, there is no significant correlation existing between total and matric suction values and the MFSI values of the samples.     

The Effects of the Earth’s Curvature on Gravity and Geoid Calculations

While it is obvious that large-scale gravity studies should account for the sphericity of the Earth, each case should be examined. If a geometry model is very large for the 3D-gravity calculation, it cannot be correctly defined in Cartesian coordinates. Because of the Earth’s curvature it is necessary to use spherical coordinates, the importance of which is shown in this paper. The calculation of the gravity for a cylinder reveals, 1 m above the center of the cylinder, a relative difference of 13% between the models with Cartesian and spherical coordinates.     

Sea level variability at Antalya and Mente? tide gauges in Turkey: atmospheric, steric and land motion contributions

Sea level trends and interannual variability at Antalya and Menteş tide gauges are investigated during the 1985–2001 period, quantifying the roles of atmospheric, steric and local land motion contributions. Tide gauge sea level measurements, temperature/salinity climatologies and GPS data are used in the analyses and the results are compared with the output of a barotropic model forced by atmospheric pressure and wind. The overall sea level trends at two tide gauges collocated with GPS are in the range of 5.5 to 7.9 mm/yr during the study period, but showing different behaviour in the sub-periods 1985–1993 and 1993–2001 due to variations in the contributing factors both in space and time. After the removal of the atmospheric forcing and steric contribution from sea level records, the resulting trends vary between 1.9 to 4.5 mm/yr in Antalya and −1.2 to −11.6 mm/yr in Menteş depending on the period considered. Vertical land movement estimated from GPS data seems to explain the high positive residual trend in Antalya during the whole period. On the other hand, the source of the highly negative sea level trend of about −14 mm/yr in Menteş during 1985–1993 could not be resolved with the available datasets. Interannual variability of wind and atmospheric pressure appear to dominate the sea level at both tide gauges during the study period. Atmospheric and steric contributions together account for ∼50% of the total sea level variance at interannual time scales. Mass induced sea level variations which were not considered in this study may help to close the sea level trend budgets as well as to better explain the interannual sea level variance.