Weights of evidence method for landslide susceptibility mapping. Prahova Subcarpathians,Romania

The goal of this paper is to assess the landslide susceptibility of a hilly area in the Subcarpathian sector of the Prahova Valley, using the weight of evidence statistical method. This method aims to reduce the multitude of landslide-related conditions to a pattern of a few discrete predictive variables. The method is based on the decision of which state is more likely to occur grounded on the presence or absence of a predictive variable and the occurrence of an event (e.g., landslide) within a pixel. Based on the chi-square test and the Pearson correlation applied on the data, the selected conditionally independent variables in this study were as follows: slope gradient, slope aspect, and land use. Weights calculated individually for the three themes were added to produce a probability estimate of the area. The predictive power of the map was tested on the basis of a split sample of landslides that were not used in the modeling process. The fact that a great percent of the declivitous surfaces are susceptible to landslides shows the dominant manner of the evolution of the Subcarpathian slopes, the acceleration or deceleration of the process being influenced by the land use.     

Seasonal variations in soil radon emanation: long-term continuous monitoring in light of seismicity

Soil gas radon release patterns have been monitored continuously for more than 3 years in the Eastern Mediterranean Province (EMP) (Southern Turkey), alongside regional seismic events, providing a multidisciplinary approach. In the period from January 2008 to January 2011, 14 earthquakes M _L ≥4 occurred in the study area. By monitoring the sites for more than 3 years, the site-characteristic patterns of soil radon emanation of each site have become evident. Radon emanation data show seasonal (semi-annual) variation characteristics; high soil radon values are between May and October and low soil radon values are between November and April. With available rainfall data, the soil gas radon data can be more reliably evaluated. It is shown in this paper that if radon emanation data are available over sufficiently long periods of time and baseline data (and their seasonal variations) are known with certainty for each monitoring site, then the observation of positive anomalies might provide a correlation or connection to seismic activity.     

Geophysical Images of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Erzincan Basin, Eastern Turkey, and their Tectonic Implications

The collision between the Arabian and Eurasian plates in eastern Turkey causes the Anatolian block to move westward. The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a major strike-slip fault that forms the northern boundary of the Anatolian block, and the Erzincan Basin is the largest sedimentary basin on the NAF. In the last century, two large earthquakes have ruptured the NAF within the Erzincan Basin and caused major damage (M _s = 8.0 in 1939 and M _s = 6.8 in 1992). The seismic hazard in Erzincan from future earthquakes on the NAF is significant because the unconsolidated sedimentary basin can amplify the ground motion during an earthquake. The amount of amplification depends on the thickness and geometry of the basin. Geophysical constraints can be used to image basin depth and predict the amount of seismic amplification. In this study, the basin geometry and fault zone structure were investigated using broadband magnetotelluric (MT) data collected on two profiles crossing the Erzincan Basin. A total of 24 broadband MT stations were acquired with 1–2 km spacing in 2005. Inversion of the MT data with 1D, 2D and 3D algorithms showed that the maximum thickness of the unconsolidated sediments is ~3 km in the Erzincan Basin. The MT resistivity models show that the northern flanks of the basin have a steeper dip than the southern flanks, and the basin deepens towards the east where it has a depth of 3.5 km. The MT models also show that the structure of the NAF may vary from east to west along the Erzincan Basin.     

Upper crustal electrical resistivity structures in the vicinity of the Çatalca Fault, Istanbul, Turkey by magnetotelluric data

A magnetotelluric survey was performed at the Çatalca Region, west of Istanbul, Turkey with the aim of investigating geoelectrical properties of the upper crust near the Çatalca Fault and its vicinity. Broadband magnetotelluric data were collected at nine sites along a single southwest-northeast profile to image the electrical resistivity structure from surface to the 5 km depth. The dimensionality of the data was examined through tensor decompositions and highly two-dimensional behavior of the data is shown. Following the tensor decompositions, two-dimensional inversions were carried out where E-polarization, B-polarization and tipper data were utilized to construct electrical resistivity models. The results of the inversions suggest: a) the Çatalca Fault extends from surface to 5 km depth as a conductive zone dipping to southwest; b) the thickness of the sedimentary cover is increasing from SW to NE to 700 m with low resistivity values between 1–100 Ωm; c) the crystalline basement below the sedimentary unit is very resistive and varies between 2000–100000 Ωm; d) a SW-dipping resistivity boundary in the northeastern part of our profile may represent the West Black Sea Fault.     

LAND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOS BANOS–KETTLEMAN CITY AREA,CALIFORNIA: PAST AND FUTURE OCCURRENCE

Land subsidence in the western San Joaquin Valley has been studied and monitored for almost six decades. Especially in the 1950s and 1960s, land subsidence had tremendous negative environmental and socioeconomic implications. The rate of land subsidence in the Los Banos–Kettleman City area, however, has decreased during the last three decades as a result of a decrease in groundwater withdrawal, following the importation of surface water to the Valley in late 1960s. The land subsidence in the Valley potentially could be a serious issue if the existing surface water supplies cannot meet increasing water demands during future critical drought periods. In this respect, this paper proposes a preliminary analysis to predict magnitudes of subsidence for the period 2000 to 2040, based on historical occurrences. In this study, extrapolation from earlier subsidence is based on: (1) knowledge of recent post-drought records at extensometers, (2) assumption of a single time porosity scenario, and (3) the premise that pumpage from the confined aquifer gradually will decrease as a result of progressive water quality degradation. Predicted magnitudes of land subsidence in the Los Banos–Kettleman City area are expected to be in the range 0.5 to 4.0 m for the next 4 to 5 decades under the scenario considered in this paper. [Key words: subsidence, groundwater extraction, aquitard, inelastic compaction, active porosity, Los Banos-Kettleman City, California.]     

A Closer View of the Nucleus of NGC 4314

We present a high-resolution kinematical study of the ionized gas in the circumnuclear region of NGC 4314. Our spectra reveal the presence of a central structure (apparently a ring or torus) located at ∼ 2 arcsec from the nucleus, which we identify as the shocked interface between the nuclear bar and the gas inside the HII region ring. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Field-Line Draping Around ICMES

Magnetic field orientations in the sheaths of ten fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that cover the solar longitude range roughly from 20° East to 33° West (as determined from the associated flare or filament disruption) are overlain on the MHD-computed magnetic field pattern showing draping in Earth’s magnetosheath. The general draping pattern is evident in the ICME sheath orientations including, most importantly, the east flank where draping causes the greatest distortion of the magnetic field away from the general Parker spiral. Deviations from the general draping pattern are also evident which, we suggest, result from the history of accretion of the inhomogeneous interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) into the ICME sheath over a long stretch of solar wind before arriving at one AU. The profiles of magnetic field intensity between the ICME shock and the nose of the ICME deviate significantly from the corresponding profile in Earth’s magnetosheath. The ICME samples are much more irregular and show no general tendency to increase toward the stagnation point. We suggest that again this difference reflects the history of IMF accretion by the ICME sheath. The long stretch of accreted inhomogeneous field (a significant fraction of one AU) can account for the irregularity, and the weakness of the field close to the body possibly reflects a weaker ICME shock closer to the Sun.     

Analysis of Turkish precipitation data: homogeneity and the Southern Oscillation forcings on frequency distributions

The homogeneity of newly compiled 212 precipitation records in Turkey for the period 1973‐2002 was checked by the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and Pettitt Test. Stations were considered inhomogeneous if at least one of the tests rejects the homogeneity. As a result, 43 out of 212 stations were found to be inhomogeneous. In addition, the previously detected Southern Oscillation (SO)‐related precipitation anomalies by the authors were quantified at each station using the gamma distribution. The observed SO‐related shifts in the median precipitation amounts expressed as gamma percentiles may be considered as a typical SO response of that station. The results of this study confirm the wet responses of Turkish precipitations to El Nino events, whereas those for La Nina events seem to be masked by sampling variations within the study period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetospheric Cusps under Extreme Conditions: Cluster Observations and MHD Simulations Compared

MHD simulations are here applied to aid in the interpretation of three apparent cusp encounters by the Cluster 4 spacecraft in unusual places when the magnetosphere was under extreme solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions associated with the passage of magnetic clouds imbedded within fast ICMEs. At the time of each cusp encounter the IMF was very strong, generally northward in one case, generally equatorial in a second case, and generally southward in the third case. In the southward IMF case, the MHD models locate the origin of the cusp-like plasma by showing that the position of the spacecraft at the time of encounter was engulfed in a tongue of high-pressure plasma extending from the magnetopause into the magnetosphere. This tongue points to the northern-hemisphere cusp as the source of the feature. In the equatorial IMF case an elevated-pressure feature that apparently marked a cusp encounter in the computations coincided, however, with a passage in the solar wind of a dynamic pressure pulse, thus giving an alternative interpretation of the feature. However, Cluster data unambiguously identified the event as an encounter with magnetosheath-like plasma. Given that the Cluster observations classify the event as a true encounter with a cusp-like plasma feature (and not a compression event), the model simulations can be interpreted as identifying the origin of the feature to have been the northern-hemisphere cusp even though?—?and this is the interesting point?—?the observation point was in the southern hemisphere. In the northward IMF case, neither cusp (defined as a magnetic funnel linking the magnetopause to the Earth) was directly connected to the observation point. Instead, this encounter of magnetosheath-like plasma appears to be an instance of boundary-layer formation by means of the Song?–?Russell mechanism in which two-point magnetic reconnection entrains magnetosheath plasma on closed field lines when the IMF is northward.     

Modeling of lithology induced chemical anomalies in the aquifer systems of the Kazan Trona deposit area, Ankara, Turkey

The study was carried out in order to investigate existing hydrogeochemical relationships between groundwater environment and geological units in the Kazan trona deposit area, Ankara, Turkey. Evaluations indicate that concentrations of alkalinity, boron, chloride and sodium in the upgradient groundwater of the Eocene sedimentary units gradually increase toward downgradient by the interactions of saline minerals (searlesite, shortite, northupite and pyrite) present in the secondary structures (microfractures and irregular voids) at various levels. Inverse modeling calculations suggest that the range of dissolved mass amounts in millimoles per kilogram of water for searlesite, shortite and northupite minerals are 0.05–28.67, 2.62–24.39 and 0.01–24.19, respectively, in the aquifer between the upgradient and downgradient locations. The ranges of accompanying calcite and dolomite precipitations are 4.54–48.71 and 2.16–24.08 mmol per kg of water, respectively. Chemical composition of the groundwater in the overlying Neogene sedimentary unit includes also higher concentrations of the major ions as measured in groundwater of the underlying units. However the lack of saline mineral zones in the Neogene unit indicates that upward groundwater mixing takes place from the underlying aquifer as also suggested by the measured upward gradient. The mixing percentage of the underlying groundwater as determined from the nested wells ranges from 2.7 to 48.3%, from upgradient to downgradient, respectively. The unconfined alluvium aquifer overlying the Neogene unit includes relatively dilute groundwater except in two locations, where high-ion concentrations detected in groundwater of the underlying units are also high in these locations, suggesting upward groundwater mixing from the underlying aquifer due to upward gradient. However, groundwater input investigations from the alluvium aquifer to the nearby Ova stream indicate that the detected high concentrations in these locations are diluted or sorbed by the aquifer material toward downgradient (Ova Stream).