Wavelet–copula‐based mutual information for rainfall forecasting applications

Under a climate change, the physical factors that influence the rainfall regime are diverse and difficult to predict. The selection of skilful inputs for rainfall forecasting models is, therefore, more challenging. This paper combines wavelet transform and Frank copula function in a mutual information‐based input variable selection (IVS) for non‐linear rainfall forecasting models. The marginal probability density functions (PDFs) of a set of potential rainfall predictors and the rainfall series (predictand) were computed using a wavelet density estimator. The Frank copula function was applied to compute the joint PDF of the predictors and the predictand from their marginal PDFs. The relationship between the rainfall series and the potential predictors was assessed based on the mutual information computed from their marginal and joint PDFs. Finally, the minimum redundancy maximum relevance was used as an IVS stopping criterion to determine the number of skilful input variables. The proposed approach was applied to four stations of the Nigerien Sahel with rainfall series spanning the period 1950–2016 by considering 24 climate indices as potential predictors. Adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system, artificial neural networks, and random forest‐based forecast models were used to assess the skill of the proposed IVS method. The three forecasting models yielded satisfactory results, exhibiting a coefficient of determination between 0.52 and 0.69 and a mean absolute percentage error varying from 13.6% to 21%. The adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system performed better than the other models at all the stations. A comparison made with KDE‐based mutual information showed the advantage of the proposed wavelet–copula approach.     

Identifying drivers for fishing pressure. A multidisciplinary study of trawl and sea snail fisheries in Samsun,Black Sea coast of Turkey

This study aims to investigate and model driving forces that lead to increased fishing pressure and an altered state of the environment in the coastal areas near Samsun on the Turkish Black Sea coast. We have applied a modified DPSIR model to structure our investigation and analysis and have investigated the drivers that generate fishing pressure in the Samsun fisheries. The overall health of the ecosystem is declining, and there is a consistent trend of deterioration in the condition of the three major species targeted by the trawl fisheries. Although introduced invasive species have brought significant changes to the Black Sea, it is clear that the state of the environment is significantly and negatively affected by the pressure exerted by fisheries. Fishing pressure has to a certain extent been redirected to pelagic trawling as bottom trawling has become less profitable and a rise in catch capacity has levelled off. This reduction is, however, offset by an increase in illegal trawling and dredging by a very rapidly growing sector of multi-purpose small boats, resulting in a considerable increase in the overall accumulated engine power of fishing boats in Samsun during 2000–2005. Fisheries in Samsun, in particular sea snail fisheries, have constituted a frontier of sorts open to the poorer populations of Samsun during the last 20 years, and, thereby, constitute one of the major drivers for fishing pressure. We identify eight drivers of importance for the period 2000–2005. Although the authorities can impact all or most of those drivers, most of them are beyond the scope of conventional ‘fisheries management’.     

Absolute properties of the neglected eclipsing B-type binary HD 194495

We present the results of the high-resolution spectroscopic observations of the neglected binary system HD 194495 (B3 IV-V+B4 V). A combined analysis of three different photometric data set (Tycho B_T and V_T photometry, H_p-band data of Hipparcos and V-band data of ASAS3 photometry) and radial velocities indicates that the system has an orbital period of 4.90494 ± 0.00005 days and an inclination of 69 ± 1 degrees. This solution yields masses and radii of M₁ = 7.57 ± 0.08 M_⊙ and R₁ = 5.82 ± 0.03 R_⊙ for the primary and M₂ = 5.46 ± 0.09 M_⊙ and R₂ = 3.14 ± 0.08 R_⊙ for the secondary. Based on the position of the two stars plotted on a theoretical H-R diagram, we find that the age of the system is ?28 Myr, according to stellar evolutionary models. The spectroscopic and photometric results are in agreement with those obtained using theoretical predictions.     

Two-dimensional modeling of flood wave propagation in residential areas after a dam break with application of diffusive and dynamic wave approaches

Natural Hazards - In this study, a two-dimensional hydraulic routing model was applied to a sudden failure scenario for the Atasu Dam in Trabzon, Turkey. The goal was to simulate spreading and...     

Mineralogy, whole-rock and Sr-Nd isotope geochemistry of mafic microgranular enclaves in Cretaceous Dagbasi granitoids, Eastern Pontides, NE Turkey: Evidence of magma mixing, mingling and chemical equilibration

Rocks of the Late Cretaceous Dagbasi Pluton (88-83 Ma), located in the eastern Pontides, include mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs) ranging from a few centimetres to metres in size, and from ellipsoidal to ovoid in shape. The MMEs are composed of gabbroic diorite, diorite and tonalite, whereas the felsic host rocks comprise mainly tonalite, granodiorite and monzogranite based on both mineralogical and chemical compositions. MMEs are characterized by a fine-grained, equigranular and hypidiomorphic texture. The common texture of felsic host rocks is equigranular and also reveals some special types of microscopic textures, e.g., oscillatory-zoned plagioclase, poikilitic K-feldspar, small lath-shaped plagioclase in large plagioclase, blade-shaped biotite, acicular apatite, spike zones in plagioclase and spongy-cellular plagioclase textures and rounded plagioclase megacrysts in MMEs. Compositions of plagioclases (An₃₃-An₆₀), hornblendes (Mg#=0.77-1.0) and biotites (Mg#=0.61-0.63) of MMEs are slightly distinct or similar to those of host rocks (An_12-57; hbl Mg#=0.63-1.0; Bi Mg#=0.50-0.69), which suggest partial to complete equilibration during mafic-felsic magma interactions.The felsic host rocks have SiO₂ between 60 and 76 wt% and display low to slightly medium-K tholeiitic to calc-alkaline and peraluminous to slightly metaluminous characteristics. Chondrite-normalized rare-earth element (REE) patterns are fractionated (La_cn/Lu_cn=1.5-7.3) with pronounced negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu*=0.46-1.1). Initial ε_Nd(i) values vary between −3.1 and 1.6, initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values between 0.7056 and 0.7067.Compared with the host rocks, the MMEs are characterized by relatively high Mg-number of 22-52, low contents of SiO₂ (53-63 wt%), low ASI (0.7-1.1) and low to medium-K tholeiitic to calc-alkaline, metaluminous to peraluminous composition. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns are relatively flat [(La/Yb)_cn=1.4-3.9; (Tb/Yb)_cn=0.9-1.5] and show small negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu*=0.63-1.01). Isotope signatures of these rocks (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i)=0.7054-0.7055; ε_Nd(i)=-1.0 to 1.9) are largely similar to the host rocks. Gabbroic diorite enclaves have relatively low contents of SiO₂, ASI; high Mg#, CaO, Al₂O₃, TiO₂, P₂O₅, Sr and Nb concentrations compared to dioritic and tonalitic enclaves.The geochemical and isotopic similarities between the MMEs and their host rocks indicate that the enclaves are of mixed origin and are most probably formed by the interaction between the lower crust- and mantle-derived magmas. All the geochemical data suggest that a basic magma derived from an enriched subcontinental lithospheric mantle, interacted with a crustal melt that originated from dehydration melting of the mafic lower crust at deep crustal levels. The existence of compositional and textural disequilibrium and the nature of chemical and isotopic variation in these rock types indicate that magma mixing/mingling between an evolved mafic and a granitic magma was involved in their genesis. Microgranular enclaves are thus interpreted to be globules of a more mafic magma probably from an enriched lithospheric mantle source. Al-in-amphibole estimates the pluton emplacement at ca. 0.3-3.8 kbar, and therefore, magma mixing and mingling must have occurred at 3.8 kbar or below this level.     

Stratabound lead-zinc pyrite ore deposits in upper precambrian carbonate rocks,Rodna Mountains,Romania

The Blazna-Guset mining area is located in the Rodna Mountains, Eastern Carpathians, North Romania. It is mostly covered by the metamorphic rocks of the Rebra Series (Upper Precambrian; K/Ar dating gave 800 m.y.). The middle part of this series — called the Carbonate Formation — contains lead-zinc pyrite ores hosted by prevailingly carbonate rocks. The ores form flat and thin lenses occurring together with fine intercalations of silicate-, graphite- and quartz-bearing rocks within the calcite-dominated limestones. Pyrite, ironpoor sphalerite and galena are the main ore minerals. Chalcopyrite, pyrrhotite and magnetite also occur in small amounts. Within the highly deformed and partly recrystallized parts of the ore bodies bournonite, arsenopyrite and pearceitepolybasite were locally encountered. Ba, Ti and Mn are the most significant ore-accompanying elements.     

Accelerating shear velocity in gravel-bed channels

Abstract

The behaviour of the shear velocity along a gravel-bed channel is investigated experimentally in the presence of a negative pressure gradient (accelerating flow). Different methods of estimation of the shear velocity, derived from vertical profiles of the mean longitudinal point velocity, are examined and a new method is proposed. Results show that the proposed method of estimation is comparable to the St Venant and Clauser's methods. At a specific cross section, for constant bottom slope and relative roughness, shear velocity increases with discharge.     

Analysis of Turkish precipitation data: homogeneity and the Southern Oscillation forcings on frequency distributions

The homogeneity of newly compiled 212 precipitation records in Turkey for the period 1973‐2002 was checked by the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and Pettitt Test. Stations were considered inhomogeneous if at least one of the tests rejects the homogeneity. As a result, 43 out of 212 stations were found to be inhomogeneous. In addition, the previously detected Southern Oscillation (SO)‐related precipitation anomalies by the authors were quantified at each station using the gamma distribution. The observed SO‐related shifts in the median precipitation amounts expressed as gamma percentiles may be considered as a typical SO response of that station. The results of this study confirm the wet responses of Turkish precipitations to El Nino events, whereas those for La Nina events seem to be masked by sampling variations within the study period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.