A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory: part II—fault source and background seismicity model

Over the years, several local and regional seismic hazard studies have been conducted for the estimation of the seismic hazard in Turkey using different statistical processing tools for instrumental and historical earthquake data and modeling the geologic and tectonic characteristics of the region. Recently developed techniques, increased knowledge and improved databases brought the necessity to review the national active fault database and the compiled earthquake catalogue for the development of a national earthquake hazard map. A national earthquake strategy and action plan were conceived and accordingly with the collaboration of the several institutions and expert researchers, the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project (UDAP-Ç-13-06) was initiated, and finalized at the end of 2014. The scope of the project was confined to the revision of current national seismic hazard map, using the state of the art technologies and knowledge of the active fault, earthquake database, and ground motion prediction equations. The following two seismic source zonation models are developed for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis: (1) Area source model, (2) Fault and spatial smoothing seismic source model (FSBCK). In this study, we focus on the development and the characterization of the Fault Source model, the background spatially smoothed seismicity model and intrinsic uncertainty on the earthquake occurrence-rates-estimation. Finally, PSHA results obtained from the fault and spatial smoothed seismic source model are presented for 43, 72, 475 and 2475 years return periods (corresponding to 69, 50, 10, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) for PGA and 5% damped spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s.     

Seismic hazard map of the Middle East

The collaborative project Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME, 2010–2015) brought together scientists and engineers from the leading research institutions in the region and delivered state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment covering Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey. Their efforts have been materialized in the first homogenized seismic hazard model comprising earthquake catalogues, mapped active faults, strong motions databank, ground motion models and the estimated ground motion values for various intensity measure types and relevant return periods (e.g. 475–5000 years). The reference seismic hazard map of the Middle East, depicts the mean values of peak ground acceleration with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years. A full resolution poster is provided with this contribution.     

Sensitivity of the active fracture model parameter to fracture network orientation and injection scenarios

Active fractures refer to the portions of unsaturated, connected fractures that actively conduct water. The active fracture model parameter accounts for the reduction in the number of fractures carrying water and in the fracture–matrix interface area in field-scale simulations of flow and transport in unsaturated fractured rocks. One example includes the numerical analyses of the fault test results at the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada (USA). In such applications, the active fracture model parameter is commonly used as a calibration parameter without relating it to fracture network orientations and infiltration rates. A two-dimensional, multiphase lattice-Boltzmann model was used in this study to investigate the sensitivity of the active fracture model parameter to fracture network orientation and injection scenarios for an unsaturated, variable dipping, and geometrically simple fracture network. The active fracture model parameter differed by as much as 0.11–0.44 when the effects of fracture network orientation, injection rate, and injection mode were included in the simulations. Hence, the numerical results suggest that the sensitivity of the active fracture model parameter to fracture network orientation, injection rates, and injection modes should be explored at the field-scale to strengthen the technical basis and range of applicability of the active fracture model.     

Determination of radioactivity levels in Akhisar,Gördes,Gölmarmara and Sindirgi regions,Western Turkey

In this study, radioactivity measurements in the environment of Akhisar, Gölmarmara, Gördes and Sindirgi regions in Western Turkey were investigated in order to evaluate the implications of any excess radioactivity in the environment of geological formation. The radioactivity concentrations of ⁴⁰K, ²³⁸U and ²³²Th radionuclides in the soil samples were measured by a NaI(Tl) gamma spectrometer system, and the radium activity concentrations in the water samples were also analyzed by an ZnS(Ag) alpha counter by the collector chamber method. The radioactivity of ⁴⁰K, ²³⁸U and ²³²Th in soils ranged 2.80–2,347.77, 9.90–256.19 and 9.66–106.53 Bq kg^?1, respectively. The activity of ²²⁶Ra in the water samples ranged from 0.03 Bq L^?1 (0.89pCi/L) to 0.80 Bq L^?1 (21.58pCi/L). In addition, the external terrestrial gamma dose rate in air (nGy h^?1), annual effective dose rate (mSv year^?1) and radium equivalent activity (Bq kg^?1) were calculated and compared with international standard values.     

A study of residuals for strong ground motions in Adapazari basin,NW Turkey,by ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs)

The city of Adapazarı — located in the Marmara Region of northwest Turkey — is situated on a deep sedimentary basin and was the city most heavily damaged by the strong ground motion of the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake (moment magnitude M_w = 7.4). This study determines site amplifications of the attenuation relationships for shallow earthquakes in the Adapazarı basin by using the previous ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and the traditional spectral ratio method. The site amplifications are determined empirically by averaging the residuals between the observed and predicted peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values for various periods. Residuals are significantly correlated with the known characteristics of geological units. A new attenuation model has also been developed for 5% damped spectral acceleration to determine the dependence of strong ground motions on frequency.     

Estimation of global lightning activity and observations of atmospheric electric field

Variations in the global atmospheric electric circuit are investigated using a wide range of globally spaced instruments observing VLF (∼10 kHz) waves, ELF (∼300 Hz) waves, Schumann resonances (4–60 Hz), and the atmospheric fair weather electric field. For the ELF/VLF observations, propagation effects are accounted for in a novel approach using established monthly averages of lightning location provided by the Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and applying known frequency specific attenuation parameters for daytime/nighttime ELF/VLF propagation. Schumann resonances are analyzed using decomposition into propagating and standing waves in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. Derived lightning activity is compared to existing global lightning detection networks and fair weather field observations. The results suggest that characteristics of lightning discharges vary by region and may have diverse effects upon the ionospheric potential.     

Pile–soil–pile interaction in pile groups with batter piles under dynamic loads

A simple analytical solution is developed for computing the dynamic interaction tensor for floating pile groups with batter piles. For this purpose, the governing differential equations are derived for an unloaded batter floating pile closely spaced to another loaded pile with the same properties. The reaction of soil against pile deformation is modeled by the springs and dashpots along the length of the pile. The soil is assumed linear viscous elastic and the pile behavior is linear elastic. The closed form solutions of governing equations are obtained using appropriate boundary conditions. The results are verified and compared with rigorous and approximate analytical solutions for vertical piles. The proposed method can be readily applied by engineers in the design of pile groups with batter piles.     

Chaotic Behavior of Soil Radon Gas and Applications

The soil ²²²Rn concentration non-linear patterns are investigated by the application of various chaos methodologies based on 70 272 measurement data from the East Anatolian Fault Zone, which is one of the world’s most active faults. Among these methodologies are Lyapunov exponent, surrogate data, rescaled range (R/S) analysis, Fourier spectrum, phase space reconstruction, mutual information, false nearest neighbors, and correlation dimension. The results indicate that the nonlinear dynamical approach is convenient for characterization and prediction of the ²²²Rn concentration dynamics, which are in turn usually used as an earthquake precursor. Behaviour of ²²²Rn gas is important in earthquake prediction researches.