Artificial neural network simulation for prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the River Ramganga,Ganges Basin,India

The relation between the water discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the River Ramganga at Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, in the Himalayas, has been modeled using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The current study validates the practical capability and usefulness of this tool for simulating complex nonlinear, real world, river system processes in the Himalayan scenario. The modeling approach is based on the time series data collected from January to December (2008-2010) for Q and SSC. Three ANNs (T1-T3) with different network configurations have been developed and trained using the Levenberg Marquardt Back Propagation Algorithm in the Matlab routines. Networks were optimized using the enumeration technique, and, finally, the best network is used to predict the SSC values for the year 2011. The values thus obtained through the ANN model are compared with the observed values of SSC. The coefficient of determination (R2), for the optimal network was found to be 0.99. The study not only provides insight into ANN modeling in the Himalayan river scenario, but it also focuses on the importance of understanding a river basin and the factors that affect the SSC, before attempting to model it. Despite the temporal variations in the study area, it is possible to model and successfully predict the SSC values with very simplistic ANN models.     

Evidence of NW extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea: a new interpretation of the Marmara Sea (İzmit) earthquake on 17 August 1999

Active faults aligning in NW–SE direction and forming flower structures of strike-slip faults were observed in shallow seismic data from the shelf offshore of Avc?lar in the northern Marmara Sea. By following the parallel drainage pattern and scarps, these faults were traced as NW–SE-directed lineaments in the morphology of the northern onshore sector of the Marmara Sea (eastern Thrace Peninsula). Right-lateral displacements in two watersheds of drainage and on the coast of the Marmara Sea and Black Sea are associated with these lineaments. This right-lateral displacement along the course of these faults suggests a new, active strike-slip fault zone located at the NW extension of the northern boundary fault of the Ç?narc?k Basin in the Marmara Sea. This new fault zone is interpreted as the NW extension of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), extending from the Ç?narc?k Basin of the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea coast of the Thrace Peninsula, and passing through B üy ük çekmece and K ü ç ük çekmece lagoons. These data suggest that the rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake in the NAFZ may have extended through Avc?lar. Indeed, Avc?lar and ?zmit, both located on the Marmara Sea coast along the rupture route, were strongly struck by the earthquake whereas the settlements between Avc?lar and ?zmit were much less affected. Therefore, this interpretation can explain the extraordinary damage in Avc?lar, based on the newly discovered rupture of the NAFZ in the Marmara Sea. However, this suggestion needs to be confirmed by further seismological studies.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anomalous X-ray pulsars: persistent states with fallback disks

The anomalous X-ray pulsar 4U 0142+61 was recently detected in the mid infrared bands with the SPITZER Observatory (Wang, Chakrabarty and Kaplan: Nature 440, 772 (2006)). This observation is the first instance for a disk around an AXP. From a reanalysis of optical and infrared data, we show that the observations indicate that the disk is likely to be an active disk rather than a passive dust disk beyond the light cylinder, as proposed in the discovering paper. Furthermore, we show that the irradiated accretion disk model can also account for all the optical and infrared observations of the anomalous X-ray pulsars in the persistent state.     

An analysis of wave properties of isothermal plasma around Reissner-Nordström black hole

The 3+1 spacetime split is used in a preliminary investigation of waves propagating in a medium of isothermal plasma in the vicinity of event horizon of Reissner-Nordström planar analogue. The general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic equations for isothermal have been investigated there. The dispersion relations are obtained by using linear perturbation and Fourier analyze techniques for non-rotating and rotating, non-magnetized and magnetized environment. The wave number, phase velocity, group velocity etc. are shown to discuss the nature of the waves.     

Magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and stability of pre-flare loops

The equilibrium and stability of a loop in which energy storage occurs prior to a solar flare is discussed. Working on the hypothesis, that the onset of the flare begins only after sufficient magnetic energy has been stored in the loop typical values of parameters which describe the equilibrium are found for a magnetic field with a constant twist. The stability of this configuration is examined next and it is shown that for the force-free case, the structure is always unstable to kinking for any degree of twist. However, a slight deviation from the force-free configuration, through the presence of a small positive transverse pressure gradient, can stabilize the loops for moderate degrees of twist. The range of wave-numbers for which instability occurs and the maximum growth rates are also presented. Lastly, it is shown that the pressure gradients required to stabilize a pre-flare loop do not lead to conflict with observations.     

Changes in biodiversity of the extremely polluted Golden Horn Estuary following the improvements in water quality

Long-term biological data supported by physicochemical parameters were evaluated to investigate the biodiversity of the Golden Horn Estuary from the past to the present. Limited observations dating back to 60 years ago indicated the existence of a diverse community in this small estuary. Unfortunately, in parallel with the increase in unplanned settlements and industry around the Golden Horn, pollution stress increased since the 1960s. Preliminary studies in the 1990s indicated survival of only a couple of pollution-resistant species, in the relatively cleaner lower estuary. Following the intensification of rehabilitation studies in 1998 and particularly after the opening of the floating bridge at the mid estuary; a remarkable day-by-day recovery in marine life has begun with the improving water quality. Nutrient concentrations decreased markedly; while water clarity significantly increased. Fecal coliform values decreased 10(3) fold. Phytoplankton composition changed and dense blooms of eukaryotic phytoplankters frequently occurred. Hydrogen sulfide almost completely disappeared even during the warmest periods of the year and dissolved oxygen concentrations increased. All results clearly depicted that the Golden Horn ecosystem shifted to eutrophic conditions from an anoxic environment. SCUBA dives in 2002, documented the level of diversification of life in the Golden Horn. All appropriate substratums were intensely covered by macrobenthic forms until the Halic Bridge and filter feeders dominated the plankton-rich ecosystem. Achieving the diversity of 1940s is not possible since the Black and Marmara seas, influencing water quality of the Golden Horn, are also suffering from anthropogenic impacts and are far less diverse than their rich diversity in 1940s. However, the Golden Horn is a good example that even the most polluted ecosystems can recover when appropriate measures are taken.     

The characteristics of the chemical flow within the Motru catchment area, south — west Romania

The present paper, with reference to the Motru catchment area, contributes to the hydrochemical studies at an international level and to the completion of the characteristics regarding the chemical flow in Romania. In this regard, it emphasizes once again the dependence between the content of dissolved salts (fixed residue — mg/l) on the one hand and the lithological conditions, human activity, flow and the surface of the catchments on the other hand. The calculation and the analysis of the chemical flow for the Motru catchment area (located in the south-west of Romania) was performed on the basis of two parameters: the average flow of dissolved chemical substances (mg/s) and specific average chemical flow (t/kmp year) recorded at the monitoring stations on the Motru River and its tributaries during the period 2005–2009. The values obtained (for example: 2.63 mg/s and 47.7 t/km² year, at the Fata Motrului station, on the Motru River, in 2009) confirm the importance of the areal factors of natural background in the analysis of chemical flow as a morpho-dynamic process and implicitly for the chemical quality of surface waters.