Hillslope gullying in the Solway Firth — Morecambe Bay region, Great Britain: Responses to human impact and/or climatic deterioration?

In the Solway Firth — Morecambe Bay region of Great Britain there is evidence for heightened hillslope instability during the late Holocene (after 3000 cal. BP). Little or no hillslope geomorphic activity has been identified occurring during the early Holocene, but there is abundant evidence for late Holocene hillslope erosion (gullying) and associated alluvial fan and valley floor deposition. Interpretation of the regional radiocarbon chronology available from organic matter buried beneath alluvial fan units suggests much of this geomorphic activity can be attributed to four phases of more extensive gullying identified after 2500–2200, 1300–1000, 1000–800 and 500 cal. BP. Both climate and human impact models can be evoked to explain the crossing of geomorphic thresholds: and palaeoecological data on climatic change (bog surface wetness) and human impact (pollen), together with archaeological and documentary evidence of landscape history, provide a context for addressing the causes of late Holocene geomorphic instability. High magnitude storm events are the primary agent responsible for gully incision, but neither such events nor cooler/wetter climatic episodes appear to have produced gully systems in the region before 3000 cal. BP. Increased gullying after 2500–2200 cal. BP coincides with population expansion during Iron Age and Romano-British times. The widespread and extensive gullying after 1300–1000 cal. BP and after 1000–800 cal. BP coincides with periods of population expansion and a growing rural economy identified during Norse times, 9–10th centuries AD, and during the Medieval Period, 12–13th centuries AD. These periods were separated by a downturn associated with the ‘harrying of the north’ AD 1069 to 1070. The gullying episode after 500 cal. BP also coincides with increased anthropogenic pressure on the uplands, with population growth and agricultural expansion after AD 1500 following 150 years of malaise caused by livestock and human (the Black Death) plagues, poor harvests and conflicts on the Scottish/English border. The increased susceptibility to erosion of gullies is a response to increased anthropogenic pressure on upland hillslopes during the late Holocene, and the role of this pressure appears crucial in priming hillslopes before subsequent major storm events. In particular, the cycles of expansion and contraction in both population and agriculture appear to have affected the susceptibility of the upland landscape to erosion, and the hillslope gullying record in the region, therefore, contributes to understanding of the timing and spatial pattern of human exploitation of the upland landscape.     

Late Devensian and Holocene landscape change in the uplands of the Isle of Man

The Late Glacial and Holocene geomorphology of the Manx uplands has received scant attention in previous researches. Solifluction deposits and terraces provide the earliest evidence for geomorphic activity after deglaciation. Fluvial incision into drift-choked valleys is correlated with the formation of the large mountain front alluvial fans that flank the Manx uplands. Formation of these alluvial fans is constrained to 15,000–10,500 cal. years BP by ¹⁴C dates on organic deposits beneath and above the alluvial fan gravels. Alluvial fan and river terraces along four valleys postdate this incision. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and ¹⁴C dating provide a tentative chronology for these landforms. The higher terraces are Late Glacial fluvial surfaces that were probably occupied by rivers into the Holocene. Incision during the Late Holocene led to the abandonment of the higher surfaces, producing a suite of younger river terraces and alluvial fan surfaces. Independent dating constrains this fluvial activity to post-Bronze Age (3500–2800 cal. years BP). Increased human activity and climatic change during the Late Holocene are possible causes for this increased geomorphic activity.     

Development of a risk-hedging CO2-emission policy, part I: Risks of unrestrained emissions

A rational global strategy with respect to greenhouse-gas emissions would seek to minimize total risk, which is the sum of the risk of negative impacts due to climatic change associated with a given level of emissions, and the risks associated with the process of achieving that emission level. Given the existence of reducible uncertainties in estimating these risks, and the possibility that an emission target thought to minimize total risk is later found to be not strict enough, a risk-hedging strategy is a more realistic policy objective. This paper is Part I of a two-part series in which these risks are reviewed and an interim risk-hedging emission level is proposed. Here, the risks associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions are reviewed. In particular, the carbon-cycle response to continuing CO₂ emissions; the heat trapping of projected greenhouse gas increases in comparison to other anthropogenic and natural heating or cooling perturbations; the climatic response to heating perturbations; and the impacts of projected climatic change on global agriculture, forests, coastal regions, coral reefs, water resources, terrestrial species, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, and human comfort and welfare are critically examined. It is concluded that unrestrained emissions of greenhouse gases pose real and substantial risks to human societies and to ecosystems, and that these risks are likely to grow substantially if the climate warms beyond that associated with a CO₂ doubling. These risks clearly justify some action to limit emissions. The magnitude of emission restraint that is justified depends not only on the risks reviewed here, but also on the risks associated with measures to limit greenhouse-gas emissions, which are reviewed in Part II.     

ISO Far-IR spectroscopy of IR-bright galaxies and ULIRGs

Based on far-infrared spectroscopy of a small sample of nearbyinfrared-bright and ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) with theISO Long Wavelength Spectrometer we find adramatic progression in ionic/atomic fine-structure emission line andmolecular/atomic absorption line characteristics in these galaxiesextending from strong [O III]52,88 m and [N III]57 m lineemission to detection of only faint [C II]158 m line emissionfrom gas in photodissociation regions in the ULIRGs. The molecularabsorption spectra show varying excitation as well, extending fromgalaxies in which the molecular population mainly occupies the groundstate to galaxies in which there is significant population in higherlevels. In the case of the prototypical ULIRG, the merger galaxy Arp220, the spectrum is dominated by absorption lines of OH, H₂O, CH,and [O I]. Low [O III]88 m line flux relative to the integratedfar-infrared flux correlates with low excitation and does not appear tobe due to far-infrared extinction or to density effects. A progressiontoward soft radiation fields or very dusty H II regions may explainthese effects.     

Meteorite stranding surfaces and the Greenland icesheet

Abstract— Thirty years of recoveries in East Antarctica have led to significant understanding of the regional characteristics associated with meteorite stranding surfaces. In Antarctica these sites are characterized by patches of snow‐free blue ice at high altitude on the icesheet in regions where iceflow is highly restricted. Melting is extremely rare or absent and sublimation rates are high, even though meteorite stranding surfaces are predominantly found within regions where accumulation typically dominates. Localized environmental conditions that persist for thousands of years or longer appear to be the dominant factor rather than shorter‐term or seasonal cycles. In this paper we describe our discovery of regions in Northeast Greenland with blue ice areas that exhibit many of the requisite characteristics, suggesting that they are excellent prospects for future meteorite recovery efforts.     

Observations of sunspot umbral velocity oscillations

Sunspot umbral molecular lines have been used to look for the oscillatory velocities in the umbra. Power spectrum analysis showed conspicuous power for periods in the range between 448 and 310 s. The maximum peak-to-peak amplitude of the umbral oscillatory velocity component is observed to be in the order of 0.5 km s^–1.Visiting Astronomer, Solar Division, Kitt Peak National ObservatoryOperated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

Magnetograph measurements with temperature-sensitive lines

Certain discrepancies between theoretical and empirical calibrations of magnetograph response are resolved by recognizing the existence of line profile changes in magnetic regions. Many of the photospheric lines commonly used for magnetic field measurements weaken greatly in magnetic regions outside of sunspots. Unless due account is made of the line profile change, the magnetograph measurements underestimate magnetic flux and field strengths.The 5250.2 Å line is especially sensitive to weakening in magnetic regions. Measurements made with this line underestimate the true field by a factor ranging from about two on the linear portion of the profile to five near the line core.Kitt Peak National Observatory Contribution No. 500.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

Regional estimation of base recharge to ground water using water balance and a base-flow index

Naturally occurring long-term mean annual base recharge to ground water in Nebraska was estimated with the help of a water-balance approach and an objective automated technique for base-flow separation involving minimal parameter-optimization requirements. Base recharge is equal to total recharge minus the amount of evapotranspiration coming directly from ground water. The estimation of evapotranspiration in the water-balance equation avoids the need to specify a contributing drainage area for ground water, which in certain cases may be considerably different from the drainage area for surface runoff. Evapotranspiration was calculated by the WREVAP model at the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network (SAMSON) sites. Long-term mean annual base recharge was derived by determining the product of estimated long-term mean annual runoff (the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) and the base-flow index (BFI). The BFI was calculated from discharge data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey's gauging stations in Nebraska. Mapping was achieved by using geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics. This approach is best suited for regional-scale applications. It does not require complex hydrogeologic modeling nor detailed knowledge of soil characteristics, vegetation cover, or land-use practices. Long-term mean annual base recharge rates in excess of 110 mm/year resulted in the extreme eastern part of Nebraska. The western portion of the state expressed rates of only 15 to 20 mm annually, while the Sandhills region of north-central Nebraska was estimated to receive twice as much base recharge (40 to 50 mm/year) as areas south of it.     

Soil moisture: a residual problem underlying AGCMs

This paper critically reviews and intercompares land surface schemes (LSSs) as used in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to simulate soil moisture and its response to a warmer climate, and potential evapotranspiration approaches as used in operational soil moisture monitoring and in predicting the response of soil moisture to a warmer climate. AGCM predictions of overall soil moisture change are in broad agreement but disagree sharply in some regions. Intercomparison projects have sought to evaluate the LSSs used by AGCMs for both accuracy and consistency. These studies have found that different LSSs can produce very different simulations even when supplied with identical atmospheric forcing. As well, LSSs that produce similar surface results from present-day or control climates often diverge when forced with climatic change data. Furthermore, no single LSS has been identified that produces an adequate simulation of all of temperature, moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff. AGCM LSSs must resolve the surface energy balance (SEB) in order to compute realistic heat fluxes between with the atmospheric model. LSSs have been used with AGCMs in both on-line (fully coupled) and off-line modes. In off-line climatic change experiments, AGCM predictions of atmospheric temperature and precipitation have been used, along with model downward radiative fluxes at the surface, to drive their own uncoupled LSS. However, there are simple non-energy-balance methods for estimating evapotranspiration that have been traditionally used in agricultural and meteorological applications. These schemes compute a potential evapotranspiration (PE) based on temperature and/or net radiation inputs, with the PE modified based on the availability of soil moisture. Operational PE approaches have also been used with AGCM data in off-line climate change experiments. The advantages of this approach are that it is simpler and requires less information, although (like the off-line SEB approach) it leaves out the simulation of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere.Although the SEB approach is essential for LSSs that must be coupled to AGCMs, this does not necessarily make it superior to an off-line operational PE LSS when it comes to quantities such as soil moisture. The quality of current observational data is insufficient to demonstrate that either approach is better than the other. Both approaches should continue to be used and intercompared when predicting the impacts of climatic change on soil moisture.