National Inventories of Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks: The U.K. Experience

The U.K. has extensive databases on soils, land cover and historic land use change which have made it possible to construct a comprehensive inventory of the principal terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon for approximately the year 1990, using methods that are consistent with, and at least as accurate as, the revised 1996 guidelines recommended by IPCC where available – and including categories which are not currently considered under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This country inventory highlights issues concerning methodology, uncertainty, double counting, the importance of soils and the relative magnitude of sources and sinks which are reported to the UNFCCC relative to other sources and sinks. The carbon sinks (negative values in MtC a^-1) for categories reported to the UNFCCC, based on the IPCC categories, were estimated to be: forest trees and litter (–2.1), U.K. forest products (–0.5, ignoring imports and exports), non-forest biomass (–0.3), forest soils (–0.1) and soils on set-aside land (–0.4). The carbon sources (positive values) reported under the UNFCCC were estimated to be: losses of soil organic carbon resulting from cultivation of semi-natural land (6.2) and from urbanization (1.6), drainage of peatlands (0.3) and fenlands (0.5), and peat extraction (0.2). A range of other sources and sinks not covered by the IPCC guidelines were also quantified, namely, the accumulation of carbon in undrained peatlands (–0.7, ignoring methane emission), sediment accretion in coastal marshes (–0.1), the possible U.K. share of the CO₂ and N fertilization carbon sink (–2.0) and riverine organic and particulate carbon export to the sea (1.4, which may be assumed to be a source if most of this carbon is released as CO₂ in the sea). All sinks totalled –6.2 and sources 10.2, giving a net flux to the atmosphere in 1990 of 4.0 MtC a^-1. Uncertainties associated with categories, mostly based on best guesses, ranged from ±15% for forest biomass and litter to ±60% for CO₂ and N fertilization.     

Annual methane emission from Finnish mires estimated from eddy covariance campaign measurements

Summary  Measurements of landscape-scale methane emission were made over an aapa mire near Kaamanen in Finnish Lapland (69° 8′ N, 27° 16′ E, 155 m ASL). Emissions were measured during the spring thaw, in summer and in autumn. No effect of water table position on CH₄ emission was found as the water table remained at or above the surface of the peat. Methane emission fluxes increased with surface temperature from which an activation energy of −99 kJ mol⁻¹ was obtained. Annual emission from the site, modelled from temperature regression and short-term flux measurements made in three separate years, was calculated to be 5.5 ± 0.4 g CH₄ m⁻² y⁻¹ of which 0.6 ± 0.1 g CH₄ m⁻² y⁻¹ (11%) was released during the spring thaw which lasted 20 to 30 days. The effect of global warming on the CH₄ budget of the site was estimated using the central scenario of the SILMU (Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change) model which predicts annual mean temperature increases of 1.2, 2.4 and 4.4 °C in 2020, 2050 and 2100, respectively. Maximum enhancements in CH₄ emission due to warming were calculated to be 18, 40 and 84% for 2020, 2050 and 2100, respectively. Actual increases may be smaller because prediction of changes in water table are highly uncertain. Received September 17, 1999 Revised October 16, 2000     

Grassroots innovations in community energy: The role of intermediaries in niche development

Community energy projects are attracting increasing attention as potential sources of innovation to support sustainable energy transitions. Research into ‘grassroots innovations’ like community energy often recognises the difficulties they face in simply surviving let alone in growing or seeding wider change. Strategic niche management theory is potentially helpful here as it highlights the important roles played by ‘intermediary actors’ in consolidating, growing and diffusing novel innovations. This paper presents the first in-depth analysis of intermediary work in the UK community energy sector. New empirical evidence was gathered through interviews with 15 community energy intermediaries and a content analysis of 113 intermediary-produced case studies about community energy projects. Analysis finds intermediaries adopting a variety of methods to try and diffuse generic lessons about context-specific projects, but that trying to coordinate support for local projects that exist amidst very different social and political circumstances is challenging. This is exacerbated by the challenges of building a coherent institutional infrastructure for a sector where aims and approaches diverge, and where underlying resources are uncertain and inconsistent. Applications of relatively simple, growth-oriented approaches like strategic niche management to grassroots innovations need to be reformulated to better recognise their diverse and conflicted realities on the ground.     

A localised co-rotating auroral absorption event observed near noon using imaging riometer and EISCAT

An isolated region of energetic electron precipitation observed near local noon in the auroral zone has been investigated using imaging riometer (IRIS) and inco-herent-scatter radar (EISCAT) techniques. IRIS revealed that the absorption event was essentially co-rotating with the Earth for about 2 h. The spatial and temporal variations in D-region electron density seen by EISCAT were able to be interpreted within a proper context when compared with the IRIS data. EISCAT detected significant increases in electron density at altitudes as low as 65 km as the event drifted through the radar beam. The altitude distribution of incremental radio absorption revealed that more than half of the absorption occurred below 75 km, with a maximum of 67 km. The energy spectrum of the precipitating electrons was highly uniform throughout the event, and could be described analytically by the sum of three exponential distributions with characteristic energies of 6, 70 and 250 keV. A profile of effective recombination coefficient that resulted in self-consistent agreement between observed electron desities and those inferred from an inversion procedure has been deduced. The observations suggest a co-rotating magnetospheric source region on closed dayside field lines. However, a mechanism is required that can sustain such hard precipitation for the relatively long duration of the event.     

The power spectrum and spatial structure of complex auroral radio-absorption events

Complex auroral-absorption events, observed with spaced riometers at high-latitude sites, have been analysed for power spectra and spatial coherence. The coherence distance is typically more than 200 km for the slower fluctuations, but less than 100 km for periodicities less than 9 min. There is evidence that in fact the coherence is controlled by the intensity of the precipitation rather than by the period. The active regions of the magnetosphere that cooperate, i.e. produce coherent particle precipitation—during radio-absorption events have dimensions of the order of one earth radius, the typical size increasing with the level of activity. It is suggested that field aligned currents may affect the scale of coherence. The results of the analysis should be useful in deciding the locations of sites in spaced riometer observations.     

On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant, and therefore most intensively studied, uncertainties in predicting future climate change. As a result, many probabilistic estimates of the climate sensitivity (S) have been presented. In recent years, most of them have assigned significant probability to extremely high sensitivity, such as P(S?>?6C)?>?5%. In this paper, we investigate some of the assumptions underlying these estimates. We show that the popular choice of a uniform prior has unacceptable properties and cannot be reasonably considered to generate meaningful and usable results. When instead reasonable assumptions are made, much greater confidence in a moderate value for S is easily justified, with an upper 95% probability limit for S easily shown to lie close to 4°C, and certainly well below 6°C. These results also impact strongly on projected economic losses due to climate change.     

A modelling study of the effects of neutral air winds on electron content at mid-latitudes in winter

A modelling study of the effects of neutral air winds on the electron content of the mid-latitude ionosphere and protonosphere in winter has been made. The theoretical models are based on solutions of time dependent momentum and continuity equations for oxygen and hydrogen ions. The computations are compared with results from slant path observations of the ATS-6 radio beacon made at Lancaster (U.K.) and Boulder, Colorado (U.S.A.).It is found that the magnitude of the poleward neutral air wind velocity has a strong effect on the general magnitude of the electron content, but that the daily pattern of electron content variation is relatively insensitive to changes in the magnitude and phase of the wind pattern. These results are in contrast with the behaviour reported previously (Sethia et al., 1983) for summer conditions. However, the night-time electron content is increased by advancing the phase of the neutral air wind and decreased by retarding it. It appears that day-to-day variations in the electron content pattern in winter cannot be explained as effects of changing neutral air winds, which again contrasts with the findings for summer. As in summer, the wind has a major effect on the filling of the protonosphere, but in opposite sense.It is argued that the effect of the neutral air wind on the ionospheric and the protonospheric electron contents depends on the duration of the poleward wind in relation to daylight and on whether or not the wind reverses direction whilst the ionosphere is sunlit.     

Dynamics of auroral absorption in the midnight sector—The movement of absorption peaks in relation to the substorm onset

The movement of peaks of auroral radio absorption is studied using observations made with networks of spaced riometers in Canada and Alaska. It is found that on the average the movement of absorption peaks differs significantly from that of the onset of the A.A. substorm and in individual cases the motions of onset and subsequent peaks appear to be independent. This is taken to indicate that the time-structure of auroral absorption with periods between several minutes and an hour or two represents in general a space-time structure within the envelope of the overall substorm, involving additional mechanisms.Two classes of absorption peak are identified within the substorm. Those occurring within 10 min of the onset move more rapidly and may travel towards or away from the pole; those occurring after 30 min are of longer duration and move relatively slowly and only towards the equator. By comparison with the recovery phase of the substorm in luminous aurora it is speculated that the late peaks may indicate magnetospheric electric fields.     

The effects of neutral air winds on the electron content of the mid-latitude ionosphere and protonosphere in summer

The effects of neutral air winds on the electron content (N_T) and other parameters of the mid-latitude ionosphere have been modelled by means of mathematical solutions of the time-dependent continuity and momentum equations for oxygen and hydrogen ions. The geometry is chosen to represent a propagation path between a geosynchronous satellite and a ground station, and the computations are compared with results from slant path observations of the ATS-6 radio beacon made at Lancaster (U.K.) and Boulder, Colorado (U.S.A.).It is demonstrated that the electron content responds markedly to the magnitude and phase of the neutral air winds and that the effect induced by the wind on the electron content shows a consistent quantitative relationship with the wind velocity, especially during daytime. Reasonable variations in the phase and magnitude of the wind produce a range of daily electron content patterns which encompass the range of daily variations observed.The computations show that the wind gives rise to enhanced filling of the protonosphere. This shows as a depressed value of the shape factor (F), which by definition means that a greater fraction of the ionization is at higher altitudes. The depression of F is enhanced by a poleward wind and is suppressed or even superseded by an equatorward wind through changes of the electron density distribution with altitude.