A software tool for monitoring legal minimum length of landings: Case study of a fishery in southern Spain

The regulation of minimum legal size (MLS) of catches is a tool widely applied in the management of fisheries resources, although the MLS does not always coincide with the length at first maturity (LFM). The optimization of this management tool requires a series of quality control in fish markets and transportation. A software application has been developed to make the control of the landings of several target species easier and faster. In order to test and make this tool operational, six species of commercial interest were selected: four species of fish and two species of bivalves. It is proposed to estimate the proportion of illegal specimens in the studied lot from the proportion of illegal individuals found in the samples taken from this lot. The input data for the application are the minimum legal size (MLS) of the species and the total length (TL) of each specimen sampled. The output data is a statistical summary of the percentage of specimens of size less than the legal minimum (TL≤MLS) within different confidence intervals (90%, 95% and 99%). The software developed will serve as a fast, efficient and easy to manage tool that allows inspectors to determine the degree of compliance on MLS control and to make a decision supported by statistical proof on fishing goods.     

Statistical properties of aftershock rate decay: Implications for the assessment of continuing activity

Aftershock rates seem to follow a power law decay, but the assessment of the aftershock frequency immediately after an earthquake, as well as during the evolution of a seismic excitation remains a demand for the imminent seismic hazard. The purpose of this work is to study the temporal distribution of triggered earthquakes in short time scales following a strong event, and thus a multiple seismic sequence was chosen for this purpose. Statistical models are applied to the 1981 Corinth Gulf sequence, comprising three strong (M = 6.7, M = 6.5, and M = 6.3) events between 24 February and 4 March. The non-homogeneous Poisson process outperforms the simple Poisson process in order to model the aftershock sequence, whereas the Weibull process is more appropriate to capture the features of the short-term behavior, but not the most proper for describing the seismicity in long term. The aftershock data defines a smooth curve of the declining rate and a long-tail theoretical model is more appropriate to fit the data than a rapidly declining exponential function, as supported by the quantitative results derived from the survival function. An autoregressive model is also applied to the seismic sequence, shedding more light on the stationarity of the time series.     

Numerical analysis for random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions

The stochastic finite element equations for random temperature are obtained using the first-order per-turbation technique taking into account the random thermal properties and boundary condition, based on heat transfer variational principle. The local average method for 2-D is used to discretize random fields. Then, the random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions are investigated on condi-tion that the thermal properties and boundary condition are taken as random fields, respectively, by using the program, which is written by the methods. The expected value of temperature field and the standard deviation of the temperature field of embankment in cold regions are obtained and analyzed.     

Determination of turbidity patterns of the Zhujiang estuarine region,South China,using satellite images and a GIS approach

Landsat MSS images and SPOT HRV data were employed to map the changes in turbidity levels in the Zhujiang estuarine region, South China, during the dry season in the period 1973–1987 at low and high tides. Analysis of turbidity trends and changes in the spatial pattern of high turbidity class was carried out with a GIS software—IDRISI. It was concluded that with the use of OVERLAY and RECLASS functions in the GIS approach a large number of turbidity maps could be easily compared and the turbidity trend determined. The GIS approach further permitted evaluation of the importance of such factors as water depths, mean tidal differences, and water salinity to sedimentation in the study region.     

Predictions for the clustering properties of the Lyman-alpha forest – I. One-point statistics

We present predictions for the one-point probability distribution and cumulants of the transmitted QSO flux in the high redshift Lyman- α forest. We make use of the correlation between the Lyman- α optical depth and the underlying matter density predicted by gravitational instability theory and seen in numerical hydrodynamic simulations. We have modelled the growth of matter fluctuations using the non-linear shear‐free dynamics, an approximation which reproduces well the results of perturbation theory for the cumulants in the linear and weakly non-linear clustering regime. As high matter overdensities tend to saturate in spectra, the statistics of the flux distribution are dominated by weakly non-linear overdensities. As a result, our analytic approach can produce accurate predictions, when tested against N -body simulation results, even when the underlying matter field has root-mean-square fluctuations larger than unity. Our treatment can be applied to either Gaussian or non-Gaussian initial conditions. Here we concentrate on the former case, but also include a study of a specific non-Gaussian model. We discuss how the methods and predictions we present can be used as a tool to study the generic clustering properties of the Lyman- α forest at high redshift. With such an approach, rather than concentrating on simulating specific cosmological models, we may be in a position to directly test our assumptions for the Gaussian nature of the initial conditions, and the gravitational instability origin of structure itself. In a separate paper we present results for two-point statistics.     

Power law relating 10.7 cm flux to sunspot number

To investigate the relation between observations of the 10.7 cm flux and the international sunspot number so that a physical unit may be ascribed to historical records, both polynomial and power law models are developed giving the radio flux as a function of sunspot number and vice versa. Bayesian data analysis is used to estimate the model parameters and to discriminate between the models. The effect on the parameter uncertainty and on the relative evidence of normalizing the measure of fit is investigated. The power law giving flux as a function of sunspot number is found to be the most plausible model and may be used to estimate the radio flux from historical sunspot observations.     

Secular Variation in the Composition of Basalts: an Index to Mantle Evolution

At the same Mg-number, a decrease is observed in the averagecontent of Ni, Co, and Cr in basalts between 2.5 and 2.0 b.y.Such decreases can be accounted for by smaller degrees of meltingin the mantle in response to falling geotherms. In terms ofpartially compatible (e.g. Ti, Zr, Nb, Y) and incompatible elements(e.g. Rb, Sr, Ba), Archean basalts are similar to modern island-arcbasalts although they are relatively enriched in Th and Zr anddepleted in Al. The upper concentration limit of partially compatibleand incompatible elements increases in basalts between 2?5 and1.0 b.y. Basalts with large concentrations of these elementsdo not appear to have been produced during the Archean and becomeimportant in the geologic record only after 1?0 b.y. ago. Varyingdegrees of melting, fractional crystallization, or crustal contaminationare not capable of accounting for these changes, and an increasingimportance of enriched mantle sources seems necessary. A greater availability of enriched mantle sources after theArchean may reflect recycling of ancient enriched mantle orcontinental sediments into the mantle during catastrophic continentalgrowth at 2.7 b.y.     

Comparison of two creep degradation modeling approaches for soft structured soils

The creep degradation is a common phenomenon for soft structured clays. In this paper, the creep degradation behavior for soft structured clays is first studied by combining intrinsic creep behavior and the structure indicator. A creep-implicit model and a creep-explicit model corresponding to a stress-based and a creep-based structure indicators are developed, respectively, under one-dimensional condition. Parameters determination for both models is straightforward from oedometer tests. Coupled with consolidation theory, both models are used to simulate oedometer tests with different structural levels and load durations on three clays. The predictive ability of the two models on creep behavior, creep degradation behavior and evolution of structure indicator is analyzed. The relationship between the two structure indicators is discussed based on experimental results. The comparison between experimental and numerical results demonstrates that both models can accurately describe the creep degradation behavior of soft structured clay under one-dimensional loading.     

Os Isotopes and the Origin of the Tasmanian Dolerites

New Os isotope data obtained for oxides separated from samplesof the Jurassic dolerites of Tasmania (Australia) are used toconstrain the petrogenesis of the Ferrar continental flood basaltprovince. It is proposed here that the unradiogenic initialOs ratio (¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os = 0·145 ± 0·049 2     

Winter severity in Europe: The fourteenth century

The fourteenth century is known to include a period of winter cooling in Central and Western Europe, but its timing and magnitude are not clearly established. An attempt to obtain a coherent picture from verified documentary evidence yielded 2133 records from a region covering Central Europe and Northern Italy, mostly originating from the Monumenta Germaniae Historica. Temperatures were assessed using semi-quantitative indices on the basis of proxy information on snow-cover, ice and untimely activity of vegetation. Results: A run of cold winters from 1303 to 1328 was followed by a run of average winters up to 1354. Then winter temperatures were extremely variable up to 1375. For the rest of the century they fluctuated somewhat below the average of the twentieth century. The pattern in the first five decades is compared to that in the Late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715). The possible role of forcing factors (variations in solar output, North Atlantic Deep Water formation) is briefly discussed.