Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

Developing country perspectives on ‘mitigation actions’, ‘NAMAs’, and ‘LCDS’

The MAPS programme, which seeks to deepen mitigation ambition in developing countries, is engaged in exploring the concepts of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) from a developing country perspective. Here, climate mitigation practitioners in six developing countries were surveyed for their understanding of these concepts (anonymous, personal communications with climate mitigation practitioners in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, and South Africa). It is found that there is much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration in this policy space. NAMAs are largely interpreted as mitigation activities packaged for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) registry, but are not held to constitute the full set of mitigation activity in a developing country. New terminology may be needed to describe this broader set. A tighter interpretation of LCDS to distinguish between a strategic or coordinating policy action may be useful. Other themes arising include the way ‘national appropriateness’ is reflected in the concepts, and the role of international policy in deepening mitigation action in developing countries.     

Current approaches to MRV in South Africa: a scoping study

It is shown that there are MRV-related activities underway in South Africa, particularly focusing on measuring electricity consumption and monitoring GHG emissions. Yet currently many of these activities happen in parallel systems within multi-polar governance structures. A bottom-up perspective of MRV in South Africa, informed by interviews, workshops, desktop research, and stakeholder consultations, is provided and the systems, data, methodologies, and the institutional environment relevant to a South African MRV system are examined. The development of the local monitoring and evaluation system, and its relevance within the international MRV context, is also discussed. Some recommendations are made: most importantly, there is a need for a coherent approach to be developed, one that is coordinated by government and built on existing MRV systems.     

Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011–2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

     

Universal time from VLBI single-baseline observations during CONT08

The IVS Intensive sessions are single-baseline, 1-h VLBI sessions carried out everyday in order to determine Universal Time (UT1). We investigate different possibilities to improve the results of such sessions. We do this investigation by extracting 2-h single-baseline sessions from the CONT08 data set. These are analysed like normal Intensives, and the results are compared to the results of the analysis of the full CONT08 data set. We find that tropospheric asymmetry is the major error source for the single-baseline sessions. It is possible to improve the accuracy of the estimated UT1 either by using accurate a priori tropospheric gradients or by estimating gradients in the data analysis.     

VLBI-derived troposphere parameters during CONT08

Time-series of zenith wet and total troposphere delays as well as north and east gradients are compared, and zenith total delays (ZTD) are combined on the level of parameter estimates. Input data sets are provided by ten Analysis Centers (ACs) of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) for the CONT08 campaign (12?C26 August 2008). The inconsistent usage of meteorological data and models, such as mapping functions, causes systematics among the ACs, and differing parameterizations and constraints add noise to the troposphere parameter estimates. The empirical standard deviation of ZTD among the ACs with regard to an unweighted mean is 4.6?mm. The ratio of the analysis noise to the observation noise assessed by the operator/software impact (OSI) model is about 2.5. These and other effects have to be accounted for to improve the intra-technique combination of VLBI-derived troposphere parameters. While the largest systematics caused by inconsistent usage of meteorological data can be avoided and the application of different mapping functions can be considered by applying empirical corrections, the noise has to be modeled in the stochastic model of intra-technique combination. The application of different stochastic models shows no significant effects on the combined parameters but results in different mean formal errors: the mean formal errors of the combined ZTD are 2.3?mm (unweighted), 4.4?mm (diagonal), 8.6?mm [variance component (VC) estimation], and 8.6?mm (operator/software impact, OSI). On the one hand, the OSI model, i.e. the inclusion of off-diagonal elements in the cofactor-matrix, considers the reapplication of observations yielding a factor of about two for mean formal errors as compared to the diagonal approach. On the other hand, the combination based on VC estimation shows large differences among the VCs and exhibits a comparable scaling of formal errors. Thus, for the combination of troposphere parameters a combination of the two extensions of the stochastic model is recommended.     

Estimation and testing of higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data error component models

This paper develops an estimator for higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data error component models with spatial autoregressive disturbances, SARAR(R,S). We derive the moment conditions and optimal weighting matrix without distributional assumptions for a generalized moments (GM) estimation procedure of the spatial autoregressive parameters of the disturbance process and define a generalized two-stage least squares estimator for the regression parameters of the model. We prove consistency of the proposed estimators, derive their joint asymptotic distribution, and provide Monte Carlo evidence on their small sample performance.     

Radiointerferometric polar motion observations with high temporal resolution

Summary For several years polar motion has been routinely monitored with the technique of geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) at five-day intervals. Here we present the results of the first two series of VLBI measurements for polar motion monitoring observed on a quasi daily basis employing only a single baseline. The high sensitivity of the long north-south baseline between radio telescopes at Wettzell in Germany and Hartebeesthock in South Africa for both components of polar motion permitted relatively short and inexpensive measurements of only two hours duration per session. The results of this series agree very well with the pole path determined with the IRIS network using 4 observatories in each observing session of 24 hour duration. With the polar motion results of the two series spanning about 35 days each, spectral analyses were performed which have shown a fortnightly period with a high degree of probability. These measurements demonstrate the potential of long north-south VLBI baselines for monitoring polar motion with very high temporal resolution for studies of short period fluctuations.     

Three-frequency BDS precise point positioning ambiguity resolution based on raw observables

All BeiDou navigation satellite system (BDS) satellites are transmitting signals on three frequencies, which brings new opportunity and challenges for high-accuracy precise point positioning (PPP) with ambiguity resolution (AR). This paper proposes an effective uncalibrated phase delay (UPD) estimation and AR strategy which is based on a raw PPP model. First, triple-frequency raw PPP models are developed. The observation model and stochastic model are designed and extended to accommodate the third frequency. Then, the UPD is parameterized in raw frequency form while estimating with the high-precision and low-noise integer linear combination of float ambiguity which are derived by ambiguity decorrelation. Third, with UPD corrected, the LAMBDA method is used for resolving full or partial ambiguities which can be fixed. This method can be easily and flexibly extended for dual-, triple- or even more frequency. To verify the effectiveness and performance of triple-frequency PPP AR, tests with real BDS data from 90 stations lasting for 21 days were performed in static mode. Data were processed with three strategies: BDS triple-frequency ambiguity-float PPP, BDS triple-frequency PPP with dual-frequency (B1/B2) and three-frequency AR, respectively. Numerous experiment results showed that compared with the ambiguity-float solution, the performance in terms of convergence time and positioning biases can be significantly improved by AR. Among three groups of solutions, the triple-frequency PPP AR achieved the best performance. Compared with dual-frequency AR, additional the third frequency could apparently improve the position estimations during the initialization phase and under constraint environments when the dual-frequency PPP AR is limited by few satellite numbers.