Drought, vegetation change, and human history on Rapa Nui (Isla de Pascua, Easter Island)

Stratigraphic records from lake sediment cores and slope deposits on Rapa Nui document prehistoric human impacts and natural environmental changes. A hiatus in sedimentation in Rano Raraku suggests that this lake basin dried out sometime after 4090-4410 cal yr BP and refilled only decades to centuries before AD 1180-1290. Widespread ecosystem changes caused by forest clearance by Polynesian farmers began shortly after the end of this drought. Terrestrial sections show a chronology of burning and soil erosion similar to the lake cores. Although changing sediment types and shifts in the pollen rain suggest that droughts occurred earlier in the Holocene, as yet there is no evidence for droughts occurring after AD 1180-1290. The timing of the agricultural colonization of Rapa Nui now seems well established at ca. AD 1200 and it was accompanied by rapid deforestation that was probably exacerbated by the island's small size, its droughty climate, and the rarity of primeval fires. Detailed records of a large interval of Rapa Nui's ecological history remain elusive due to the drought hiatus in the Rano Raraku sediment record. We find no evidence for a “rat outbreak impact” on Rapa Nui's vegetation preceding anthropogenic forest clearance.     

Post-glacial relative sea level, isostasy, and glacial history in Icy Strait, Southeast Alaska, USA

We use the radiocarbon ages of marine shells and terrestrial vegetation to reconstruct relative sea level (RSL) history in northern Southeast Alaska. RSL fell below its present level around 13,900 cal yr BP, suggesting regional deglaciation was complete by then. RSL stayed at least several meters below modern levels until the mid-Holocene, when it began a fluctuating rise that probably tracked isostatic depression and rebound caused by varying ice loads in nearby Glacier Bay. This fluctuating RSL rise likely reflects the episodic but progressive advance of ice in Glacier Bay that started around 6000 cal yr BP. After that time, RSL low stands probably signaled minor episodes of glacier retreat/thinning that triggered isostatic rebound and land uplift. Progressive, down-fjord advance of the Glacier Bay glacier during the late Holocene is consistent with the main driver of this glacial system being the dynamics of its terminus rather than climate change directly. Only after the glacier reached an exposed position protruding into Icy Strait ca. AD 1750, did its terminus succumb - a century before the climate changes that marked the end of the Little Ice Age - to the catastrophic retreat that triggered the rapid isostatic rebound and RSL fall occurring today in Icy Strait.     

Spatially resolved kinematics and stellar populations of brightest cluster and group galaxies

We present an examination of the kinematics and stellar populations of a sample of three brightest group galaxies (BGGs) and three brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) in X-ray groups and clusters. We have obtained high signal-to-noise ratio Gemini/Gemini South Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) long-slit spectra of these galaxies and use Lick indices to determine ages, metallicities and α-element abundance ratios out to at least their effective radii. We find that the BGGs and BCGs have very uniform masses, central ages and central metallicities. Examining the radial dependence of their stellar populations, we find no significant velocity dispersion, age, or α-enhancement gradients. However, we find a wide range of metallicity gradients, suggesting a variety of formation mechanisms. The range of metallicity gradients observed is surprising, given the homogeneous environment these galaxies probe and their uniform central stellar populations. However, our results are inconsistent with any single model of galaxy formation and emphasize the need for more theoretical understanding of both the origins of metallicity gradients and galaxy formation itself. We postulate two possible physical causes for the different formation mechanisms.     

Ground-based Pc5 ULF wave power: Solar wind speed and MLT dependence

Using over 20 years of ground-based magnetometer data from the CANOPUS/CARISMA magnetometer array, we present a statistical characterisation of Pc5 ultra-low frequency (ULF) power in the 2–10 mHz band as a function of magnetic local time (MLT), L-shell, and solar wind speed. We examine the power across L-shells between 4.2 and 7.9, using data from the PINA, ISLL, GILL and FCHU stations, and demonstrate that there is a significant MLT dependence in both the H- and D-component median 2–10 mHz power during both fast (>500 km/s) and slow (<500 km/s) solar wind speeds. The H-component power consistently dominates over D-component power at all MLTs and during both fast and slow solar wind. At the higher-L stations (L>5.4), there are strong MLT power peaks in the morning and midnight local time sectors; the morning sector dominating midnight during fast solar wind events. At lower L-shells, there is no evidence of the midnight peak and the 2–10 mHz power is more symmetric with respect to MLT except during the fastest solar wind speeds. There is little evidence in the ground-based power of a localised MLT peak in ULF power at dusk, except at the lowest L-shell station, predominantly in the H-component. The median 2–10 mHz power increases with an approximate power law dependence on solar wind speed, at all local times across the L-shell domain studied in both components. The H-component power peaks at the latitude of the GILL station, with significantly lower power at both higher and lower L-shells. Conversely, the D-component power increases monotonically. We believe that this is evidence for 2–10 mHz power accumulating at auroral latitudes in field line resonances. Finally, we discuss how such ULF wave power characterisation might be used to derive empirical radiation belt radial diffusion coefficients based on, and driven by, the solar wind speed dependence of ULF wave power.     

Assessing Soil Remobilisation in Catchments using a 137Cs-sediment Hillslope Model

Soil redistribution studies are important, especially in water supply catchments, because the rate at which denudation is occurring has implications for offsite water quality. However, the extent to which soil is redistributed within the landscape can be difficult to determine. This challenge can be overcome using fallout caesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs). This paper describes the rates of soil loss and remobilisation in two sub-catchments within the Sydney Basin region, namely Kembla and Kentish Creeks, which drain to the Cordeaux reservoir. The total inventories of ¹³⁷Cs in catchment soils were determined, a ¹³⁷Cs-regression equation and a theoretical diffusion and migration model were used to established relationships between ¹³⁷Cs inventories and the rates of soil loss. These relationships revealed relatively low occurrence of soil loss in Kentish Creek, but two slopes in the Kembla Creek sub-catchment had losses that appear to be moderate. However, there was no clear evidence to suggest whether slopes in upper and lower reaches of catchments had specific patterns of soil remobilisation. Qualitative categorisation of the slope elements using a ¹³⁷Cs-sediment hillslope model can be a useful sentinel for land users and decision makers even if absolute rates of soil loss or gain are not certain. The findings suggest that sediments mobilised in the study sub-catchments are not likely to impact significantly on the water quality in the Cordeaux reservoir.     

Algorithms for GPS operation indoors and downtown

The proliferation of mobile devices and the emergence of wireless location-based services has generated consumer demand for availability of GPS in urban and indoor environments. This demand calls for enhanced GPS algorithms that accommodate high degrees of signal attenuation and multipath effects unique to the "urban channel." This paper overviews the market for location-based services and discusses algorithmic innovations that address challenges posed by urban environments. Electronic Publication     

Methods for probabilistic assessments of geologic hazards

Although risk analysis today is considered to include three separate aspects (1) identifing sources of risk, (2) estimating probabilities quantitatively, and (3) evaluating consequences of risk, here only estimation of probabilities for natural geologic events, processes, and phenomena is addressed. Ideally, evaluation of potential future hazards includes an objective determination of probabilities that have been derived from past occurrences of identical events or components contributing to complex processes or phenomena. In practice, however, data which would permit objective estimation of those probabilities of interest may not be adequate, or may not even exist.Another problem that arises normally, regardless of the extent of data, is that risk assessments involve estimating extreme values. Probabilities are required for events that are the greatest or rarest because they commonly will have the greatest consequences; the largest, or rarest, events always fall in tails of frequency distributions. Rarely are extreme values accurately predictable even when an empirical frequency distribution is established well by data.In the absence of objective methods for estimating probabilities of natural events or processes, subjective probabilities for the hazard must be established through Bayesian methods, expert opinion, or Delphi methods. Alternative solutions may involve consequence analysis which may demonstrate that, although an event may occur, its consequences are sufficiently small that it safely may be ignored or by establishing bounds which may demonstrate that although probabilities are not known they cannot exceed a maximum value that is sufficiently small so that associated risk may be considered to be negligible.Uncertainty of every probability determination must be stated for each component of an event, process, or phenomenon. These uncertainties also must be propagated through the quantitative analysis so that a realistic estimate of total uncertainty can be associated with each final probability estimate for a geologic hazard.This paper was presented (by title) at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.