全球贸易自由化对中国和世界经济的影响

全球贸易自由化是当前和未来世界经济发展不可避免的趋势,2001年开始的多哈回合贸易自由化多边谈判和最近刚刚取消的“多种纤维协定”（MFA）将在全球贸易自由化进程中发挥重要的作用。本研究的目的是通过一些案例分析,揭示贸易自由化对中国和世界经济的影响。采用全球贸易模型,我们分析了MFA和在多哈回合初期欧盟、美国和凯恩斯集团分别提出的贸易自由化提案。研究结果表明,虽然取消MFA对一些国家纺织部门带来冲击,但它极大地促进了大多数国家经济的发展,改善了全球福利;多哈谈判过程中提出的各种贸易自由化提案都在不同程度上促进世界经济的发展,但其影响大小依次为凯恩斯提案、美国提案和欧盟提案;贸易自由化对经济的影响在不同部门和不同国家间存在显著差别;更大程度的贸易自由化不但符合全球共同利益,也符合中国国家利益;中国在推动全球贸易自由化过程中应发挥更积极和更大的作用。     

Tourmaline mineralization in the Barberton greenstone belt,South Africa: early Archean metasomatism by evaporite-derived boron

Tourmaline-rich rocks are common in the lowgrade, interior portions of the Barberton greenstone belt of South Africa, where shallow-marine sediments and underlying altered basaltic and komatiitic lavas contain up to 50% tourmaline. The presence of tourmaline-bearing rip-up clasts, intraformational tourmalinite pebbles, and tourmaline-coated grains indicates that boron mineralization was a low-temperature, surficial process. The association of these lithologies with stromatolites, evaporites, and shallow-water sedimentary structures and the virtual absence of tourmaline in correlative deep-water facies rocks in the greenstone bels strengthens this model.Five tourmaline-bearing lithologic groups (basalts, komatiites, evaporite-bearing sediments, stromatolitic sediments, and quartz veins) are distinguished based on field, petrographic, and geochemical criteria. Individual tourmaline crystals within these lithologies show internal chemical and textural variations that reflect continued growth through intervals of change in bulk-rock and fluid composition accompanying one or more metasomatic events. Large single-crystal variations exist in Fe/Mg, Al/Fe, and alkali-site vacancies. A wide range in tourmaline composition exists in rocks altered from similar protoliths, but tourmalines in sediments and lavas have similar compositional variations. Boron-isotope analysis of the tourmalines suggest that the boron enrichment in these rocks has a major marine evaporitic component. Sediments with gypsum pseudomorphs and lavas altered at low temperatures by shallow-level brines have the highest ¹¹B values (+2.2 to-1.9); lower ¹¹B values of late quartz veins (-3.7 to-5.7) reflect intermediate temperature, hydrothermal remobilization of evaporitic boron. The ¹¹B values of tourmaline-rich stromatolitic sediments (-9.8 and-10.5) are consistent with two-stage boron enrichment, in which earlier marine evaporitic boron was hydrothermally remobilized and vented in shallow-marine or subaerial sites, mineralizing algal stromatolites. The stromatolite-forming algae preferentially may have lived near the sites of hydrothermal discharge in Archean times.     

Analysis of trends in annual streamflow to the Arctic Ocean

There is increasing interest in the magnitude of the flow of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean due to its impacts on the biogeophysical and socio‐economic systems in the north and its influence on global climate. This study examines freshwater flow based on a dataset of 72 rivers that either directly or indirectly contribute flow to the Arctic Ocean or reflect the hydrologic regime of areas contributing flow to the Arctic Ocean. Annual streamflow for the 72 rivers is categorized as to the nature and location of the contribution to the Arctic Ocean, and composite series of annual flows are determined for each category for the period 1975 to 2015. A trend analysis is then conducted for the annual discharge series assembled for each category. The results reveal a general increase in freshwater flow to the Arctic Ocean with this increase being more prominent from the Eurasian rivers than from the North American rivers. A comparison with trends obtained from an earlier study ending in 2000 indicates similar trend response from the Eurasian rivers, but dramatic differences from some of the North American rivers. A total annual discharge increase of 8.7 km³/y/y is found, with an annual discharge increase of 5.8 km³/y/y observed for the rivers directly flowing to the Arctic Ocean. The influence of annual or seasonal climate oscillation indices on annual discharge series is also assessed. Several river categories are found to have significant correlations with the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, no significant association with climate indices is found for the river categories leading to the largest freshwater contribution to the Arctic Ocean.     

Simulation of less‐mobile porosity dynamics in contrasting sediment water interface porous media

Considering heterogeneity in porous media pore size and connectivity is essential to predicting reactive solute transport across interfaces. However, exchange with less‐mobile porosity is rarely considered in surface water/groundwater recharge studies. Previous research indicates that a combination of pore‐fluid sampling and geoelectrical measurements can be used to quantify less‐mobile porosity exchange dynamics using the time‐varying relation between fluid and bulk electrical conductivity. For this study, we use macro‐scale (10 s of cm) advection–dispersion solute transport models linked with electrical conduction in COMSOL Multiphysics to explore less‐mobile porosity dynamics in two different types of observed sediment water interface porous media. Modeled sediment textures contrast from strongly layered streambed deposits to poorly sorted lakebed sands and cobbles. During simulated ionic tracer perturbations, a lag between fluid and bulk electrical conductivity, and the resultant hysteresis, is observed for all simulations indicating differential loading of pore spaces with tracer. Less‐mobile exchange parameters are determined graphically from these tracer time series data without the need for inverse numerical model simulation. In both sediment types, effective less‐mobile porosity exchange parameters are variable in response to changes in flow direction and fluid flux. These observed flow‐dependent effects directly impact local less‐mobile residence times and associated contact time for biogeochemical reaction. The simulations indicate that for the sediment textures explored here, less‐mobile porosity exchange is dominated by variable rates of advection through the domain, rather than diffusion of solute, for typical low‐to‐moderate rate (approximately 3–40 cm/day) hyporheic fluid fluxes. Overall, our model‐based results show that less‐mobile porosity may be expected in a range of natural hyporheic sediments and that changes in flowpath orientation and magnitude will impact less‐mobile exchange parameters. These temporal dynamics can be assessed with the geoelectrical experimental tracer method applied at laboratory and field scales.     

Vegetation and climate during the penultimate interglacial of the northeastern Russian Arctic: the Lake El'gygytgyn pollen record

We present a high‐resolution reconstruction of the vegetation and climate dynamics during the penultimate interglacial, corresponding with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7, based on detailed palynological analyses of lacustrine sediments from Lake El'gygytgyn, northeastern Siberia. The analysed sediments were deposited between 246 and 181 ka ago (late MIS 8 to early MIS 6.6). The interglacial vegetation was characterized by herb and shrub (mainly alder and birch) dominated plant communities. Pollen‐based biome reconstruction shows a dominance of the tundra (TUND) biome, thus indicating rather open vegetation. Warmer intervals (MIS 7.5, 7.3 and 7.1) were marked by an increase in the cold deciduous forest (CLDE) biome scores and a synchronous decrease in the cold steppe (STEP) biome scores. The thermal maximum occurred during MIS 7.1, as indicated by the highest CLDE biome scores occurring in this period, and lasted ~10 ka, possibly favoured by the high precession‐related summer insolation and the legacy of the preceding mild and dry stadial (MIS 7.2). In contrast, MIS 7.3 and 7.5 were characterized by shorter durations (~4 ka) and lower summer temperatures. The preceding cold glacial and stadial (MIS 8 and 7.4, respectively) might have led to an extensive distribution of permafrost that hindered vegetation development during the subsequent warm intervals. MIS 7.4 and 6.6 were cold and wet, probably triggered by low obliquity values and coevally low precession‐related summer insolation. As a result, these periods were marked by significantly reduced summer temperatures and an enhanced snow‐ice albedo feedback. The obtained reconstructions provide potential scenarios for future climate changes and allow a better understanding of the relationship between vegetation, climate and external/internal forcings in the high latitudes.     

Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch: formalization of stages/ages and subseries/subepochs,and designation of GSSPs and auxiliary stratotypes

The Holocene, which currently spans ~11 700 years, is the shortest series/epoch within the geological time scale (GTS), yet it contains a rich archive of evidence in stratigraphical contexts that are frequently continuous and often preserved at high levels of resolution. On 14 June 2018, the Executive Committee of the International Union of Geological Sciences formally ratified a proposal to subdivide the Holocene into three stages/ages, along with their equivalent subseries/subepochs, each anchored by a Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP). The new stages are the Greenlandian (Lower/Early Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP2 ice core and dated at 11 700 a b2k (before 2000 CE); the Northgrippian (Middle Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP1 ice core and dated at 8236 a b2k; and the Meghalayan (Upper/Late Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in a speleothem from Mawmluh Cave, north‐eastern India, with a date of 4250 a b2k. We explain the nomenclature of the new divisions, describe the procedures involved in the ratification process, designate auxiliary stratotypes to support the GSSPs and consider the implications of the subdivision for defining the Anthropocene as a new unit within the GTS.     

Differential uplift on the boundary between the Eastern and the Southern European Alps: Thermochronologic constraints from the Brenner Base Tunnel

The Brenner Base Tunnel will connect Innsbruck (Austria) and Franzensfeste (Italy) by piercing two of the most important fault structures of the Alps: the Periadriatic fault system (PFS) and the Southern limit of Alpine metamorphism (SAM). (U‐Th)/He dating (apatite) and fission‐track analysis (apatite and zircon) on samples taken during excavation reveal a complex pattern of exhumation through time. The results yield temporal constraints for relative vertical block movement and fault activity. Furthermore, they indicate differential uplift of the northern block along the ~E–W striking PFS and allow locating the position of the SAM in the overtilted nappe stack south of the Tauern Window. Our data strongly support, for the first time, an ongoing north‐side‐up movement along this section of the PFS until at least the end of Miocene.