Influence from Surrounding Land on the Turbulence Measurements Above a Lake

Turbulence measurements taken at a Swedish lake are analyzed. Although the measurements took place over a relatively large lake with several km of undisturbed fetch, the turbulence structure was found to be highly influenced by the surrounding land during daytime. Variance spectra of both horizontal velocity and scalars during both unstable and stable stratification displayed a low frequency peak. The energy at lower frequencies showed a daily variation, increasing in the morning and decreasing in the afternoon. This behaviour is explained by spectral lag, where the low frequency energy due to large eddies that originate from the convective boundary layer above the surrounding land. When the air is advected over the lake the small eddies rapidly equilibrate with the new surface forcing. However, the large eddies remain for an appreciable distance and influence the turbulence in the developing lake boundary layer. The variances of the horizontal velocity and scalars are increased by these large eddies, while the turbulent fluxes are mainly unaffected. The drag coefficient, Stanton number and Dalton number used to parametrize the momentum flux, heat flux and latent heat flux respectively all compare well with current parametrizations developed for open sea conditions. The diurnal cycle of the partial pressure of methane, $p\mathrm{CH}_{4}$ , observed at this site is closely related to the diurnal cycle of the lake-air methane flux. An idealized two-dimensional model simulation of the boundary layer at a lake site indicates that the strong response of $p\mathrm{CH}_{4}$ to the surface methane flux is due to the shallow internal boundary layer that develops above the lake, allowing methane to accumulate in a relatively small volume.     

Innovating the IPCC review process—the potential of young talent

There is significant potential in young talent for enhancing the credibility of the scientific assessments such as the IPCC’s by contributing to quality assurance and quality control. In this essay, we reflect on an experiment that was done by the Dutch government as part of its government review of a contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In an effort to review the entire Working Group II contribution to the AR5 within the official review period for the Second Order Draft (SOD), the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency turned to PhD students. This article shows that a systematic review focusing on transparency and errors of a large scientific assessment document using young talented scientists can be successful if certain conditions are met. The reviewers need to have intrinsic motivation to conduct the review. There needs to be a communication plan that fosters engagement and a clear methodology to guide the reviewers through their task. Based on this experiment in review, we reflect on the wider potential for openness and crowdsourcing in scientific assessment processes such as the IPCC’s.     

Weibull-k Revisited: “Tall” Profiles and Height Variation of Wind Statistics

The Weibull distribution is commonly used to describe climatological wind-speed distributions in the atmospheric boundary layer. While vertical profiles of mean wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer have received significant attention, the variation of the shape of the wind distribution with height is less understood. Previously we derived a probabilistic model based on similarity theory for calculating the effects of stability and planetary boundary-layer depth upon long-term mean wind profiles. However, some applications (e.g. wind energy estimation) require the Weibull shape parameter (k), as well as mean wind speed. Towards the aim of improving predictions of the Weibull- \(k\) profile, we develop expressions for the profile of long-term variance of wind speed, including a method extending our probabilistic wind-profile theory; together these two profiles lead to a profile of Weibull-shape parameter. Further, an alternate model for the vertical profile of Weibull shape parameter is made, improving upon a basis set forth by Wieringa (Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 1989, Vol. 47, 85–110), and connecting with a newly-corrected corollary of the perturbed geostrophic-drag theory of Troen and Petersen (European Wind Atlas, 1989, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde). Comparing the models for Weibull-k profiles, a new interpretation and explanation is given for the vertical variation of the shape of wind-speed distributions. Results of the modelling are shown for a number of sites, with a discussion of the models’ efficacy and applicability. The latter includes a comparative evaluation of Wieringa-type empirical models and perturbed-geostrophic forms with regard to surface-layer behaviour, as well as for heights where climatological wind-speed variability is not dominated by surface effects.     

Early Last Interglacial Greenland Ice Sheet melting and a sustained period of meridional overturning weakening: a model analysis of the uncertainties

Proxy-data suggest that the Last Interglacial (LIG; ~130–116 ka BP) climate was characterized by higher temperatures, a partially melted Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and a changed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Notwithstanding the uncertainties in LIG palaeoclimatic reconstructions, this setting potentially provides an opportunity to evaluate the relation between GIS melt and the AMOC as simulated by climate models. However, first we need to assess the extent to which a causal relation between early LIG GIS melt and the weakened AMOC is plausible. With a series of transient LIG climate simulations with the LOVECLIM earth system model, we quantify the importance of the major known uncertainties involved in early LIG GIS melt scenarios. Based on this we construct a specific scenario that is within the parameter space of uncertainties and show that it is physically consistent that early LIG GIS melting kept the AMOC weakened. Notwithstanding, this scenario is at the extreme end of the parameter space. Assuming that proxy-based reconstructions of early LIG AMOC weakening offer a realistic representation of its past state, this indicates that either (1) the AMOC weakening was caused by other forcings than early LIG GIS melt or (2) the early LIG AMOC was less stable than indicated by our simulations and a small amount of GIS melt was sufficient to keep the AMOC in the weak state of a bi-stable regime. We argue that more intensive research is required because of the high potential of the early LIG to evaluate model performance in relation to the AMOC response to GIS melt.     

Comment on “Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis” by Xiaolan L. Wang,Y. Feng,G. P. Compo,V. R. Swail,F. W. Zwiers,R. J. Allan,and P. D. Sardeshmukh,Climate Dynamics, 2012

The main subject of this article is to comment on the issue of storminess trends derived from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and from observations in the North Atlantic region written about in Wang et al. (Clim Dyn 40(11–12):2775–2800, 2012). The statement that the 20CR estimates would be consistent with storminess derived from pressure-based proxies does not hold for the time prior to 1950.     

Shear Band Formation in Numerical Simulations Applying a Continuum Damage Rheology Model

In seismically active regions, faults nucleate, propagate, and form networks that evolve over time. To simulate crustal faulting processes, including the evolution of fault-zone properties, a rheological model must incorporate concepts such as damage rheology that describe the various stages of the seismic cycle (strain localization, subcritical crack growth and macroscopic failure) while accounting for material degradation and healing and off-fault deformation. Here we study the fundamental patterns of strain-localisation within the framework of a continuum damage rheology by performing a shear band analysis (linear instability analysis) and comparing predictions of shear band orientations with numerical results of the nonlinear problem. We find (analytically and numerically) that the angle between the shear band and the less compressive (transverse) direction is between 47° in compression tests with a strain ratio of 0.25 (highly confined compression test), and 60° for a strain ratio higher than 1.4 (axial compression and transverse extension). In addition we find that shear bands exhibit local dilation (I ₁ > 0) in a wide range of strain ratios excluding only simulations with highly confined compression (which yield compacting shear bands or non-localized deformation). Finally, we discuss the applicability of the damage model for simulating deformation in the seismogenic, brittle crust.     

Construction of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation at Lubumbashi,Congo, under the hypothesis of inadequate data

Abstract

Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation constitute a probabilistic tool and have proven useful in water resources management. In particular, IDF curves for precipitation enable questions on the extreme character of precipitation to be answered. The construction of IDF curves for precipitation is difficult or impossible in tropical areas due to the lack of long-term extreme precipitation data. A technique is proposed to overcome this shortcoming by combining limited high-frequency information on rainfall extremes with long-term daily rainfall information. It may be regarded as an extension of Koutsoyiannis' approach. Using this technique, IDF curves for precipitation are produced for Lubumbashi in Congo.

Citation Van de Vyver, H. & Demarée, G. R. (2010) Construction of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation at Lubumbashi, Congo, under the hypothesis of inadequate data. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 555–564.     

Ellipsoidal quadtrees for indexing of global geographical data

Systems for landscape visualization and geographical data handling require methods for efficient data access. Retrieval of data from large geographical databases, ten to thousands of Gbytes, is usually optimized with spatial indexing mechanisms. The simplest form of spatial indexing is achieved by dividing the database into congruent grid cells. The subsequent subdivision of the grid cells can be based on so-called quadtrees. Quadtrees for two-dimensional division and subdivision are appropriate for cartographical data. A geographical database, with objects stored in geocentric or geodetic (geographical) co-ordinates, requires indexing mechanisms that take into account the shape of the Earth. In this paper, we present a method for indexing of geographical data, named Ellipsoidal Quadtrees (EQT). In contrast to other global indexing methods, EQT is based on the Earth ellipsoid and not a spherical approximation. EQT division and subdivision make it possible to divide the Earth surface into a mesh of quadrangles with equal areas. We will demonstrate that EQT is flexible. It can be used for indexing databases of various sizes, including national and global databases. Tests on real data show that the performance of EQT is good.     

Astrodynamical Space Test of Relativity using Optical Devices I (ASTROD I)—a class-M fundamental physics mission proposal for cosmic vision 2015–2025: 2010 Update

ASTROD I is a planned interplanetary space mission with multiple goals. The primary aims are: to test General Relativity with an improvement in sensitivity of over 3 orders of magnitude, improving our understanding of gravity and aiding the development of a new quantum gravity theory; to measure key solar system parameters with increased accuracy, advancing solar physics and our knowledge of the solar system; and to measure the time rate of change of the gravitational constant with an order of magnitude improvement and the anomalous Pioneer acceleration, thereby probing dark matter and dark energy gravitationally. It is envisaged as the first in a series of ASTROD missions. ASTROD I will consist of one spacecraft carrying a telescope, four lasers, two event timers and a clock. Two-way, two-wavelength laser pulse ranging will be used between the spacecraft in a solar orbit and deep space laser stations on Earth, to achieve the ASTROD I goals.For this mission, accurate pulse timing with an ultra-stable clock, and a drag-free spacecraft with reliable inertial sensor are required. T2L2 has demonstrated the required accurate pulse timing; rubidium clock on board Galileo has mostly demonstrated the required clock stability; the accelerometer on board GOCE has paved the way for achieving the reliable inertial sensor; the demonstration of LISA Pathfinder will provide an excellent platform for the implementation of the ASTROD I drag-free spacecraft. These European activities comprise the pillars for building up the mission and make the technologies needed ready. A second mission, ASTROD or ASTROD-GW (depending on the results of ASTROD I), is envisaged as a three-spacecraft mission which, in the case of ASTROD, would test General Relativity to one part per billion, enable detection of solar g-modes, measure the solar Lense-Thirring effect to 10 parts per million, and probe gravitational waves at frequencies below the LISA bandwidth, or in the case of ASTROD-GW, would be dedicated to probe gravitational waves at frequencies below the LISA bandwidth to 100?nHz and to detect solar g-mode oscillations. In the third phase (Super-ASTROD), larger orbits could be implemented to map the outer solar system and to probe primordial gravitational-waves at frequencies below the ASTROD bandwidth. This paper on ASTROD I is based on our 2010 proposal submitted for the ESA call for class-M mission proposals, and is a sequel and an update to our previous paper (Appouchaux et al., Exp Astron 23:491?C527, 2009; designated as Paper I) which was based on our last proposal submitted for the 2007 ESA call. In this paper, we present our orbit selection with one Venus swing-by together with orbit simulation. In Paper I, our orbit choice is with two Venus swing-bys. The present choice takes shorter time (about 250?days) to reach the opposite side of the Sun. We also present a preliminary design of the optical bench, and elaborate on the solar physics goals with the radiation monitor payload. We discuss telescope size, trade-offs of drag-free sensitivities, thermal issues and present an outlook.     

Development of a conceptual hydrogeological model for the evaluation of residence times of water in soil and groundwater: the state of Hesse case study, Germany

A regional conceptual hydrogeological model has been developed for evaluating residence times of both, percolate water in the unsaturated zone and groundwater in upper aquifers. The model is based on digitally geo-data bases available at the regional level and has been applied for the entire Federal State of Hesse (Germany) with a spatial resolution of 60?×?60?m. Residence times determined for unconsolidated rock areas typically ranged between 10 and 25?years, whereas residence times of <5?years were assessed for consolidated rock areas. With regard to the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive, the determined residence times may help to assess the time periods between the introduction of well-targeted groundwater protection measures and their impact on groundwater and surface water quality, respectively.