The need for operational reasoning in data‐driven rating curve prediction of suspended sediment

The use of data‐driven modelling techniques to deliver improved suspended sediment rating curves has received considerable interest in recent years. Studies indicate an increased level of performance over traditional approaches when such techniques are adopted. However, closer scrutiny reveals that, unlike their traditional counterparts, data‐driven solutions commonly include lagged sediment data as model inputs, and this seriously limits their operational application. In this paper, we argue the need for a greater degree of operational reasoning underpinning data‐driven rating curve solutions and demonstrate how incorrect conclusions about the performance of a data‐driven modelling technique can be reached when the model solution is based upon operationally invalid input combinations. We exemplify the problem through the re‐analysis and augmentation of a recent and typical published study, which uses gene expression programming to model the rating curve. We compare and contrast the previously published solutions, whose inputs negate their operational application, with a range of newly developed and directly comparable traditional and data‐driven solutions, which do have operational value. Results clearly demonstrate that the performance benefits of the published gene expression programming solutions are dependent on the inclusion of operationally limiting, lagged data inputs. Indeed, when operationally inapplicable input combinations are discounted from the models and the analysis is repeated, gene expression programming fails to perform as well as many simpler, more standard multiple linear regression, piecewise linear regression and neural network counterparts. The potential for overstatement of the benefits of the data‐driven paradigm in rating curve studies is thus highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An east–west‐trending Quaternary tunnel valley in the south‐eastern North Sea and its seismic–sedimentological interpretation

A combination of a dense reflection seismic grid and up to 50‐m‐long records from sediment cores and cone penetration tests was used to study the geometry and infill lithology of an E–W‐trending buried tunnel valley in the south‐eastern North Sea. In relation to previously known primarily N–S‐trending tunnel valleys in this area, the geometry and infill of this 38‐km‐long and up to 3‐km‐wide valley is comparable, but its E–W orientation is exceptional. The vertical cross‐section geometry may result from subglacial sediment erosion of advancing ice streams and secondary incision by large episodic meltwater discharges with high flow rates. The infill is composed of meltwater sands and reworked till remnants on the valley flanks that are overlain by late Elsterian rhythmic, laminated, lacustrine fine‐grained sediments towards the centre of the valley. A depression in the valley centre is filled with sediments most likely from the Holsteinian transgression and a subsequent post‐Holsteinian lacustrine quiet‐water setting. The exceptional axis orientation of this tunnel valley points to a regional N–S‐oriented ice front during the late Elsterian. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation of a chrysophyte stomatocyst‐based cold‐season climate reconstruction from high‐Alpine Lake Silvaplana,Switzerland

For the reliable assessment of past climate variability, quantitative reconstructions of seasonal temperatures are required. Currently, reconstructions of cold‐season temperatures are scarce, because most biological proxies are biased towards the growing season. Here we test the potential of chrysophyte stomatocysts (or simply ‘cysts’; siliceous resting stages of the golden‐brown algae) as a proxy for cold‐season temperature. Climate reconstructions based on biological proxies are commonly constructed using transfer functions derived from calibration in space. However, the performance of these reconstructions is rarely tested by direct comparison with meteorological data due to limitations of sample resolution or chronological control. We compare a cyst‐based near‐annual reconstruction of ‘date of spring mixing’ from the varved sediments of Lake Silvaplana (Swiss Alps) spanning AD 1870–2004 with climate variables from the same period measured at the lake shore. The high correlation between cyst‐based ‘date of spring mixing’ and cold‐season temperature demonstrates the ability of chrysophyte cysts to archive cold‐season temperature variability. Lake eutrophication, which was extensive during the last 50 years, had no obvious effect on the cyst‐based reconstruction. This study underlines the high potential of chrysophyte cysts as a quantitative proxy for cold‐season climate reconstructions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Verification of a coupled climate-hydrological model against Holocene palaeohydrological records

We have coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) offline to simulate palaeodischarge of nineteen rivers (Amazon, Congo, Danube, Ganges, Krishna, Lena, Mackenzie, Mekong, Meuse, Mississippi, Murray–Darling, Nile, Oder, Rhine, Sacramento–San Joaquin, Syr Darya, Volga, Volta, Zambezi) for three time-slices: Early Holocene (9000–8650 BP), Mid-Holocene (6200–5850 BP) and Recent (1750–2000 AD). To evaluate the model's skill in retrodicting broad changes in mean palaeodischarge we have compared the model results with palaeodischarge estimates from multi-proxy records. We have compared the general trends inferred from the proxy data with statistical differences in modelled discharge between the three periods, thereby developing a technique to assess the level of agreement between the model and proxy data. The quality of the proxy data for each basin has been classed as good, reasonable or low. Of the model runs for which the proxy data were good or reasonable, 72% were in good agreement with the proxy data, and 92% were in at least reasonable agreement. We conclude that the coupled climate-hydrological model performs well in simulating mean discharge in the time-slices studied. The discharge trends inferred from the proxy and model data closely follow latitudinal and seasonal variations in insolation over the Holocene. For a number of basins for which agreement was not good we have identified specific mechanisms which could be responsible for the discrepancy, primarily the absence of the Laurentide ice sheet in our model. In order to use the model in an operational sense within water management studies it would be useful to use a higher spatial resolution and a daily time-step.     

Modulation of the inflow into the Caribbean Sea by North Brazil Current rings

A two-year long record from a triangular mooring array between the Lesser Antilles islands Tobago, Barbados, and St. Lucia is used to investigate the inflow into the Caribbean Sea, the amount of South Atlantic Water (SAW) carried with the inflow, and the role of North Brazil Current (NBC) rings in the observed variability. The data set consists of time series from temperature/conductivity recorders and current meters in the moorings, bottom-mounted inverted echo sounders at the Tobago and St. Lucia mooring positions, and supplementary shipboard measurements. The acoustic travel time measurements of the inverted echo sounders and the conductivity/temperature time series are used for continuous estimation of dynamic height profiles and geostrophic currents between the surface and 1000 dbar as well as the amount of SAW found at the mooring positions.The observations show a domination of intraseasonal variability between 0 and 15 Sv, superimposed on the long-term fluctuations. With time scales of one to three months, these represent the signature of the NBC rings. The baroclinic transport time series shows nine periods of increased variability, indicative of the rings interacting with the Lesser Antilles island arc; with the exception of one, these periods were associated with corresponding sea surface height anomalies. No marked seasonality was observed in the transport variability or the ring frequency.The arrival of individual rings leads to a weakening of the inflow into the Caribbean. Nevertheless, the rings carry large amounts of SAW into the area, and the immediate increase of the transport towards the end of a ring event suggests a subsequent flow of this SAW-rich water into the Caribbean. At St. Lucia, rings sometimes cause a short-term decrease of SAW content, indicative of an influx of northern hemispheric water and a blocking situation. The average transport of SAW into the Caribbean south of St. Lucia during the observations amounted to 5.5 Sv, with no significant seasonal cycle, but a small positive trend in SAW fraction as well as in transport of about 15% and 1 Sv, respectively; a corresponding trend in the baroclinic volume transport was not observed.     

Geochemical and petrographic characteristics of impactites and Cretaceous target rocks from the Yaxcopoil‐1 borehole,Chicxulub impact structure,Mexico: Implications for target composition

Abstract— We present major and trace element data as well as petrographic observations for impactites (suevitic groundmass, bulk suevite, and melt rock particles) and target lithologies, including Cretaceous anhydrite, dolomite, argillaceous limestone, and oil shale, from the Yaxcopoil‐1 borehole, Chixculub impact structure. The suevitic groundmass and bulk suevite have similar compositions, largely representing mixtures of carbonate and silicate components. The latter are dominated by melt rock particles. Trace element data indicate that dolomitic rocks represented a significant target component that became incorporated into the suevites; in contrast, major elements indicate a strong calcitic component in the impactites. The siliceous end‐member requires a mafic component in order to explain the low SiO₂ content. Multicomponent mixing of various target rocks, the high alteration state, and dilution by carbonate complicate the determination of primary melt particle compositions. However, two overlapping compositional groups can be discerned—a high‐Ba, low‐Ta group and a high‐Fe, high‐Zn, and high‐Hf group. Cretaceous dolomitic rocks, argillaceous limestone, and shale are typically enriched in U, As, Br, and Sb, whereas anhydrite contains high Sr contents. The oil shale samples have abundances that are similar to the North American Shale Composite (NASC), but with a comparatively high U content. Clastic sedimentary rocks are characterized by relatively high Th, Hf, Zr, As, and Sb abundances. Petrographic observations indicate that the Cretaceous rocks in the Yaxcopoil‐1 drill core likely register a multistage deformation history that spans the period from pre‐ to post‐impact. Contrary to previous studies that claimed evidence for the presence of impact melt breccia injection veins, we have found no evidence in our samples from a depth of 1347–1348 m for the presence of melt breccia. We favor that clastic veinlets occur in a sheared and altered zone that underwent intense diagenetic overprint prior to the impact event.