Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark

An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km² grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km². The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km² island of Sjælland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area).     

The BEAM-project: prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities in the aquatic environment

Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context.In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and approaches of the BEAM project to fill in the identified knowledge gaps is given and first results are outlined.     

On the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea: numerical modeling and data analysis

 In this paper we use a combination of numerical modeling and data analysis to gain a better understanding of the major characteristics of the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea. In particular, we concentrate on the asymmetry of the tidal wave and its modulation in the coastal area, which results in a complex pattern of responses to the sea-level forcing from the North Sea. The numerical simulations are based on the 3-D primitive equation General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) with a horizontal resolution of 200 m and terrain-following vertical coordinates. The model is forced at its open boundaries with sea-level data from an operational model for the German Bight (German Hydrographic Office). The validation data for our model simulations include time series of tidal gauge data and surface currents measured at a pile in the back-barrier basin of the Island Langeoog, as well as several ADCP transects in the Accumer Ee tidal inlet. Circulation and turbulence characteristics are investigated for typical situations driven by spring and neap tides, and the analysis is focused on dominating temporal and spatial patterns. By investigating the response of five back-barrier basins with rather different morphologies to external forcing, an attempt is made to elucidate the dominating physical balances controlling the circulation in the individual sub-basins. It is demonstrated that the friction at the seabed tends to slow down the tidal signal in the shallow water. This leads to the establishment of flood dominance in the shallow sea north of the barrier islands. South of the islands, where the water volume of the channels at low tide is smaller than the tidal prism, the asymmetry of the tidal signal is shifted towards ebb dominance, a feature which is particularly pronounced at spring tide. At the northern open boundary, the tidal wave propagating from west to east generates a sea-level difference of ∼1 m along the boundary, and thereby triggers vigorous alongshore currents. The frictional control in the model is located in the inlets, as well as along the northern boundary. The correlation between velocity and turbulent kinetic energy tends to the establishment of a net southward transport, giving theoretical support to the observed accumulation of sediments on the intertidal flats. Weak turbulence along the northern shores of the barrier islands and the small magnitude of the residual currents there promote accumulation of suspended matter in these areas, although wave action will generally counteract this effect. Received: 29 May 2002 / Accepted: 26 September 2002 Responsible Editor: Jean-Marie Beckers Acknowledgements We are indebted to S. Dick for providing the data from the operational model of BSH and to B. Flemming for the useful discussions. The topography data and Fig. 1 have been prepared in cooperation with F. Meyer. Figure 2 has been prepared by G. Brink-Spalink. We also thank for the comments from an anonymous reviewer which helped to improve our paper.     

盆地岩石圈结构与油气成藏及分布

本文综述了大陆岩石圈研究现状和克拉通盆地、裂谷盆地和前陆盆地的岩石圈结构特征,指出在古裂谷、褶皱带或区域性深断裂等陆壳构造薄弱带上发育起来的多期叠合盆地,具有很好的含油气前景。大型含油气盆地往往存在地幔上隆、地壳减薄和地壳内低速层,盆地基底沉降与盖层沉积厚度较大。适度的后期构造活动改造和岩浆活动有利于沉积盆地内油气生成与保存。     

Evidence for fullerenes in solid bitumen from pillow lavas of Proterozoic age from Mítov (Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic)

Andesitic pillow lavas containing biogenic, solid bitumen (SB) are a constituent of a Neoproterozoic volcanosedimentary sequence (Teplá-Barrandian unit, Bohemian Massif) in the Mítov area of the Czech Republic. A black shale formation that is crosscut by these andesitic basalts is 565 Ma old. Carbon disulfide extracts of two powdered samples of SB contain 0.2 and 0.3 ppm of C₆₀, respectively, as determined by high-pressure liquid chromatography. The peak assignment based on retention time is fully supported by high-resolution electron ionization mass spectrometry (EI-MS). No C₇₀ was detected, nor was C₆₀ found in two other SB samples from this locality. Other investigated carbonaceous samples from Bohemia (coals and anthracites of Upper Paleozoic age and anthraxolite, graphitoids, and graphite of Upper Proterozoic age) did not contain fullerenes at concentrations above the detection limit of 0.01 ppm. The absence of C₆₀ in these samples was confirmed by EI-MS. The proposed mechanism of fullerene formation involves a primary algal phase, generation of a hydrocarbonaceous mixture in the course of thermal evolution of the sedimentary series, and their high-temperature transformation related to the extrusion of basalt. An important feature for fullerene conservation was the enclosure of fullerenes in SB with a structure similar to glasslike carbon, where the fullerene was protected against oxidation.     

Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.