TSP在隧道超前地质预报的应用研究

由于隧道施工经常遇到严重的地质灾害,施工前进行超前地质预报是十分必要的。本文介绍了TSP超前地质预报系统的技术特点和基本原理,结合工程实例探讨了在使用TSP过程中的一些技术问题。结果显示利用工程地质调查结论可以确定合理的探测方案和提高TSP的预报精度。     

Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.     

A high-resolution reconstruction of Storglaciären mass balance back to 1780/81 using tree-ring data and circulation indices

Storglaciären in northernmost Sweden has the world's longest ongoing continuous mass-balance record, starting in 1946. To extend this mass-balance record, we have reconstructed summer (b_S) and winter (b_W) mass balances separately back to the mass balance year 1780/81 with annual resolution. We used tree-ring data for b_S and a set of circulation indices, based on the sea-level pressure, for b_W. Both proxies have correlation coefficients with respective mass balance components of ca. 0.7. The reconstructed net balance (b_N) of Storglaciären was well correlated to the observations during 1946-1980 (r = 0.8, p < 0.05). Our reconstruction agrees well with previously obtained results of northern Sweden glacier variability, where the predominantly positive b_N years between 1890 and 1910 correspond to the well documented post-Little Ice Age advance of Storglaciären. Furthermore, the results suggest that b_S, as a function of summer temperatures, is more important than b_W in determining the b_N, which is contrary to glaciers in the maritime parts of western Scandinavia. In general, b_N has been negative over the last 220 yr, suggesting a predomination of continental conditions over northern Sweden. However, the influence of b_W increased in the late twentieth century, indicating a shift to a more oceanic climate regime.     

Validation of a model for impact breakage incorporating particle size effect

Investigation of a breakage probability model published by Vogel and Peukert [Vogel, L. and Peukert, W., 2004. Determination of material properties relevant to grinding by practicable labscale milling tests. Int. J. Miner. Process., 74S, 329–338.] has led to a modification of their model to describe the degree of impact breakage, t₁₀. The modified model takes a form similar to the JKMRC prior art breakage model, but with particle size and breakage properties incorporated explicitly in the model.     

Geometry and chronology of growth and drowning of Middle Triassic carbonate platforms (Cernera and Bivera/Clapsavon) in the Southern Alps (northern Italy)

The depositional architecture and the geometric relationships between platform-slope deposits and basinal sediments along with paleontological evidence indicate the time interval of the younger Anisian Reitziites reitzi ammonoid zone to largely represent the main stage of platform aggradation at the Cernera and Bivera/Clapsavon carbonate platforms. Published and new U-Pb age data of zircons from volcaniclastic layers bracketing the stratigraphic interval of platform growth constrain the duration of platform evolution to a time span shorter than 1.8±0.7m.y., probably in the order of 0.5-1m.y., reflecting fast rates of vertical platform aggradation exceeding 500 m/m.y. In the range of growth potentials for shallow-water carbonate systems estimated in relation to the time span of observation, this high rate is in agreement with values for short intervals of 10⁵-10⁶yrs (e.g., Schlager 1999). After drowning, the platforms at Cernera and Bivera/Clapsavon were blanketed by thin pelagic carbonates. On the former platform flanks the draping sediments in places comprise red nodular pelagic limestones (Clapsavon Limestone) similar in facies to the Han Bulog Limestones occurring elsewhere in Middle Triassic successions of the Mediterranean Tethys. The drowning of vast areas of former carbonate platforms possibly triggered the onset of bottom-water circulation in adjacent basins as suggested by the abrupt transition from laminated to bioturbated pelagic nodular limestones in the Buchenstein Formation which occurred close to the time of initial platform submergence. During the Late Ladinian the topographic features of the drowned platforms were onlapped by rapidly deposited, predominantly clastic successions including coarse breccias and volcanic rocks sealing and preserving the peculiar stratigraphic setting.     

三维粘弹介质地震波场有限差分并行模拟

有限差分法在三维粘弹性复杂介质正演模拟地震波的传播中对计算机内存和计算速度要求比较高,单个PC机或工作站只能计算较少网格内短时间的波场。本文介绍一种基于MPI的并行有限差分法,可在PCCluster上模拟较大规模三维粘弹性复杂介质中地震波传播时的波场;可预测地震波在此类条件下传播时的运动学和动力学性质。对于更好地理解波动传播现象,解释实际地震资料及反问题的解决等均具有重要的理论与实际意义。     

黄土场地震动液化实例

湿度大的黄土在地震作用下会发生液化和震陷,已在室内动力试验和古地震的调查中得到了证实。目前工程规范对黄土的液化预测判别尚缺乏经验,暂未列入规范。本文介绍了一些黄土地基处理施工的实例,证明饱和黄土在受到机械振动或冲击作用的影响后,会产生液化使所处理的地基下沉,对开展黄土液化机理、液化判别与危害评价方法及工程预防措施的研究具有现实意义。     

现行有关规范用于黄土地区的局限性分析

探讨了现行有关规范用于黄土地区存在的某些不足,阐明了场地条件和场地类别等因素对抗震设防参数的影响问题,强调了重视地方标准的制定的必要性。同时也展望了今后尚需开展的研究工作。     

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

风险管理研究已成为防灾减灾工作从“被动救灾”到“主动预防”转化的热门课题。本文回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足。提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法。最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法。     

2005年10月8日巴基斯坦7.8级地震热红外异常

收集了2005年巴基斯坦7.8级地震区Noaa17/AVHRR的2004-2005年的热红外遥感资料,并进行地表温度反演,得到了以震中为中心7°×7°范围的地表温度值。经热红外图像解译与构造关系对比分析,表明热红外解译图像与构造分布具有一致性。震源区地表温度时间序列显示:震前大约3个月内震源区存在明显的热红外异常。