历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测

故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。     

Evaluating actual evapotranspiration and impacts of groundwater storage change in the North China Plain

As a critical water discharge term in basin‐scale water balance, accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is therefore important for sustainable water resources management. The understanding of the relationship between ET and groundwater storage change can improve our knowledge on the hydrological cycle in such regions with intensive agricultural land usage. Since the 1960s, the North China Plain (NCP) has experienced groundwater depletion because of overexploitation of groundwater for agriculture and urban development. Using meteorological data from 23 stations, the complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration model is evaluated against estimates of ET derived from regional water balance in the NCP during the period 1993–2008. The discrepancies between calculated ET and that derived by basin water balance indicate seasonal and interannual variations in model parameters. The monthly actual ET variations during the period from 1960 to 2008 are investigated by the calibrated model and then are used to derive groundwater storage change. The estimated actual ET is positively correlated with precipitation, and the general higher ET than precipitation indicates the contributions of groundwater irrigation to the total water supply. The long term decreasing trend in the actual ET can be explained by declining in precipitation, sunshine duration and wind speed. Over the past ~50 years, the calculated average annual water storage change, represented by the difference between actual ET and precipitation, was approximately 36 mm, or 4.8 km³; and the cumulative groundwater storage depletion was approximately 1700 mm, or 220 km³ in the NCP. The significantly groundwater storage depletion conversely affects the seasonal and interannual variations of ET. Irrigation especially during spring cause a marked increase in seasonal ET, whereas the rapid increasing of agricultural coverage over the NCP reduces the annual ET and is the primary control factor of the strong linear relationship between actual and potential ET. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bagging-based machine learning algorithms for landslide susceptibility modeling

Natural Hazards - Landslide hazards have attracted increasing public attention over the past decades due to a series of catastrophic consequences of landslide occurrence. Thus, the mitigation and...     

伊兹米特地震地表破裂带和发震构造特点

１９９９年伊慈米特７．４级地震地表破裂带表现清楚。在几何学特点上,它基本上由４个破裂段斜裂组合而成,沿破裂段可见不同的构造组相样式。在破裂段的阶区,主要发育张性构造。破裂段的最在工为５１ｍ,在运动学上,以右旋走滑运动为主,最大位错３．８ｍ‘走滑段最大垂直位错０．６ｍ。向观震中与地表最大位理合,基本上处于破裂带中间地段。地城寺表破裂带的动力学和几何学特征与震源机制解反映出来的结果相一致。     

靖远矿区采煤沉陷区复垦综合评价方法研究

以靖远矿区为例,从土地复垦和恢复生态学的角度出发,建立了靖远矿区采煤沉陷区复垦综合评价系统,选择土壤条件（土层厚度、土壤质地、有机质含量、土壤水分）、地形改造条件（地面坡度、地表破坏程度、改造难易程度）、气候及水文条件（年降雨量、灌溉条件）作为分类及评价因子对复垦潜力进行评价。将采煤沉陷地分为四种潜力区,对每种潜力类型区的复垦开发利用方向进行了优化设计,从理论上和实践上对靖远矿区采煤沉陷地的复垦能力以及复垦过程中用地结构的优化作了探讨,以期对当地沉陷地的复垦提供一定的科学依据。     

Zircon U–Pb Dating and Geochemistry of the Linong Granitoid and Its Relationship to Cu Mineralization in the Yangla Copper Deposit,Yunnan, China

The Yangla copper deposit (Cu reserves: 1.2 Mt) in the Jinshajiang–Lancangjiang–Nujiang region in China is spatially associated with the Linong granitoid. Zircon U–Pb dating shows the granitoid formed at 234.1 ± 1.2 to 235.6 ± 1.2 Ma, and the KT2 ore body of the deposit yields a molybdenite Re–Os model age of 230.9 ± 3.2 Ma. The ages of mineralization and crystallization of the granitoid are identical within the measurement uncertainties, suggesting the Yangla deposit is genitically related to the Indosinian Linong granitoid.     

呼和浩特—包头盆地震源应力场状态分析

为了分析呼和浩特—包头盆地现今应力场状态,基于内蒙古地震台网记录的地震波形资料,运用振幅比方法获取2000—2016年该盆地及周边M_L≥2.7地震的震源机制解,计算其一致性参数,并反演区域应力场。结果表明,震源机制解特征主要表现为走滑特征,一致性参数空间分布处于低值状态,力轴方位基本与该区的应力场背景特征相符,即主压应力方位为北东、张应力方位为北西。     

不同降水天气系统自然降水特征及火箭人工增雨潜力分析

统计分析了1981~2000年20年中15种降水天气系统影响下河北地区自然降水特征,并对火箭人工增雨的潜力进行了初步分析。统计分析表明:西来槽类、高空低涡类、冷锋、切变线和副高后部等天气系统是影响河北地区的主要降水系统,其降雨量和降雨日数占到了90%以上;不同的天气系统在不同季节对降水的贡献有所不同,其中西来槽类的降雨量和降雨日数均居首位,开展人工增雨催化作业机会最多;夏季降水系统最强,云水资源最为丰富,人工增雨潜力很大,是开展火箭人工增雨催化作业的最佳季节,春秋两季增雨潜力明显比夏季小,冬季最小;倒槽、副高后部、台风低压、高空低涡类和气旋类等系统最强,日降雨量和单位面积降雨量明显比其它系统大,尤其对蓄水型火箭增雨作业十分有利。     

华南区域季节性降水的差异分析

运用EOF方法研究华南区域降水时空分布特征,结果表明：（1）华南地区各季节降水在年际和年代际的时间变化上有区域一致性,但有季节性差异,其中春季和秋季在20世纪80年代后降水明显减少,旱年增多;而夏季90年代后降水明显增加,涝年增多;冬季变化则不明显。（2）华南地区各季节降水在空间分布上也有差异,其中春季降水呈现东多西少的分布特征,大值中心位于广西东北部、广东中部及西南沿海。夏季和秋季降水相似,呈南多北少的分布特征,大值中心位于广西沿海和广东西南沿海。冬季降水呈东北多西南少的分布特征,大值中心位于粤北。     

Study on Polarized Spectral Characteristics of Soil with Different Water Content

Moisture is one of the important parameters in soil polarized spectrum. It has great significance in soil remote sensing band selection and image interpretation; it also provides the information for soil investigation and analysis on physical and chemical properties. In this paper we tested and analyzed the soil polarized spectrum with different moisture in 350?~?2,500 nm wavelength, to study on the relationship between soil polarized spectral data and moisture, to determine the spectral response and changes in soil moisture, and establish models between spectral data and soil moisture. We also designed a orthogonal test on the various factors that affect soil polarized spectral characteristics, in which we studied soil moisture, polarized angle, detected angle and azimuth of the various factors and their interactions. The results showed it was most significant that the soil moisture and the interaction of soil moisture and polarized angle, followed by the interaction effect of detected angle and moisture, while the polarized angle had a little impact on the soil polarized spectrum.