A comparison of forest fire indices for predicting fire risk in contrasting climates in China

The relationships between fire danger indices and fire risk have been extensively studied in many regions of the world. This work uses partial effect analysis in semiparametric logistic regression models to assess the nonlinear relationships among location, day, altitude, fire danger indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and fire ignition from 1996 to 2008 in four different climatic regions in China. The four regions are North China (NR), Northeast China (NE), Southeast China (SE), and Southwest China (SW). The three main results are as follows: First, different fire danger indices are selected as significant variables dependent on the region. The inter-regional difference could be partially explained by difference in local weather and vegetation conditions. Second, spatial location exerts highly significant effects in all four regions. NDVI values are selected as explained variable for NR, NE, and SE on fire ignitions. On a daily scale, altitude influences fire ignition for NR, SE, and SW. Third, the robustness of the probability models used in NE, SE, and SW is better than that in NR on a daily scale. The semiparametric logistic regression model used in this study is useful for assessing the ability of fire danger indices to estimate probabilities of fire ignition on a daily scale. This study encourages further research on assessing the predictive ability of fire danger indices developed at other temporal and spatial scales in China.     

土库曼斯坦阿姆河盆地卡洛夫-牛津阶储层特征及控制因素分析

土库曼斯坦东北部的阿姆河盆地,是中亚地区最重要的含油气盆地之一。根据钻井岩芯和分析化验资料,确定阿姆河盆地卡洛夫-牛津阶为碳酸盐台地相沉积,具有特征的前缘缓斜坡沉积模式,可划分为蒸发台地、局限台地、开阔台地、台地边缘、前缘缓斜坡和盆地6个相带。其中台内、台地边缘和前缘缓斜坡为储层发育相带,尤以发育于台地边缘、开阔台地和前缘缓斜坡相带中的礁、滩微相最有利于储层发育。沉积微相和岩性对储层类型及物性有直接控制,特点为高能环境条件下沉积的块状礁灰岩和中-厚层状滩相颗粒灰岩以发育原生孔隙保存良好的孔隙型和裂缝-孔隙型储层为主,而较低能环境条件下沉积的(含)颗粒微晶灰岩、隐藻灰岩和泥-微晶灰岩以发育基质岩物性很差的裂缝型储层为主。通过综合分析,认为储层发育受沉积微相、岩性和成岩作用复合控制,以各相带内的礁、滩微相灰岩为高效勘探开发目标的"甜心"位置。     

四川盆地下寒武统膏盐岩发育特征与封盖有效性分析

四川盆地下寒武统广泛发育一套膏盐岩,主要沉积于早寒武世龙王庙期。基于四川盆地深井及实测剖面中膏盐岩的识别和统计,发现下寒武统有川南和鄂西两大聚盐区,最厚达690.40m;川南聚盐区西部以含泥含云质石膏岩类和含膏砂泥岩类为主,东部及颚西聚盐区主要为含膏白云岩类。结合前人研究,认为膏盐岩发育于浅水缓坡沉积环境,有潮上萨布哈和缓坡蒸发两类成因。通过对川南聚盐区储盖匹配关系及后期构造与膏盐岩封盖性分析,表明下寒武统膏盐岩与盐下震旦系优质的白云岩储层在空间上具有良好的匹配关系;四川盆地边界大断裂及边界外寒武系的抬升暴露让膏盐岩在盆地外封盖性失效,而在盆地内膏盐岩的封盖性较好。威远气田解剖表明有膏盐岩分布的威远地区成藏,而无膏盐岩分布的资阳地区气藏被破坏,显示了下寒武统膏盐岩在四川盆地油气成藏中具有重要的作用。     

新疆准噶尔北缘阿克希克铁金矿流体包裹体研究

阿克希克铁金矿床位于准噶尔北缘,矿体呈似层状、脉状、透镜状赋存于南明水组火山岩及凝灰岩的接触带上。围岩蚀变不发育,主要为硅化、绢云母化、绿泥石化、黄铁矿化、碳酸盐化等。矿床的形成经历了火山沉积期和热液期,铁矿化主要形成于火山沉积期,金矿化主要形成于热液期。火山沉积期石英以发育液体包裹体和少量含CO2包裹体为特征,热液期石英以发育含CO2和碳质(CH4和C4H6)包裹体为特征。火山沉积期成矿流体为中温(集中于180~320℃)、低盐度(集中于6~10 wt%Na Cleq)、中-低密度(0.59~0.98 g/cm3)的Na Cl-H2O-CO2体系。热液期成矿流体为中温(集中于220~320℃),低盐度(集中于2~10 wt%Na Cleq),中-低密度(0.55~1.03 g/cm3)的Na Cl-H2O-CO2-CH4型流体。火山沉积期石英的δDSMOW为-129.9‰~-97.9‰,δ18OSMOW值介于7.9‰~12.3‰,δ18OH2O值为-2.6‰~4.4‰,推测成矿流体为海水与岩浆水的混合。热液期石英的δDSMOW介于-129.8‰~-102.6‰,δ18OSMOW值介于11.2‰~16.1‰,δ18OH2O变化于3.1‰~7.4‰,推测成矿流体为变质水混合深循环的大气降水。结合矿床地质特征、流体成分和性质,本文认为热液期金矿化与CO2-CH4流体有关。     

新疆雅满苏铁矿床矽卡岩和磁铁矿矿物学特征及其地质意义

雅满苏铁矿床位于东天山中段,矿体赋存于下石炭统雅满苏组安山质火山碎屑岩中,受近EW向断裂及环形断裂构造控制。矿体主要呈层状、似层状、透镜状,近矿围岩蚀变强烈,形成石榴石矽卡岩及复杂矽卡岩。电子探针分析结果表明,石榴石为钙铁榴石-钙铝榴石系列,其化学组成可表示为And45.68~100Gro0.67~57.95(A1m+Sps)11~29.03,与典型的矽卡岩型铁矿中石榴石端员组分相似。在磁铁矿Ca+Al+Mn-Ti+V图解中,大部分样品落入矽卡岩型铁矿区;TiO2-Al2O3-MgO图解中,大多数的样品落入沉积变质接触交代磁铁矿趋势区,部分早期磁铁矿落在岩浆趋势区内。结合矿床地质特征和矿物学研究,认为大多数样品经过了一个热液交代作用过程,表明雅满苏铁矿的形成与岩浆热液交代作用有关。     

基于热重分析的菱镁矿分解动力学解析

本文利用热重(TG)分析方法,探讨了菱镁矿的热分解过程。根据热微商(DTG)曲线峰顶温度,结合Kissinger及Ozawa-Doyle方法拟合计算得到菱镁矿热分解的活化能和指前因子(lgA)分别为211.55 kJ/mol和11.07s-1。依次采用单曲线拟合、多元非线性拟合及Malek方法判定得出菱镁矿热分解过程属于三维相界反应模型(R3),其动力学方程为:dα/d T=(1011.07/β)·e-211.55×103/(8.314×T)·3(1-α)2/3。     

河北承德大庙铁矿床地质构造特征与找矿预测

大庙斜长岩杂岩体位于华北克拉通北缘,是我国唯一岩体型斜长岩杂岩体,赋存了丰富的Fe-Ti-P矿床.对该杂岩体的岩石学、矿床成因研究已经较为深入,但是矿田构造研究较为薄弱.本文主要从大庙矿床地质特征分析入手,通过控矿构造分析和成矿期构造应力场的恢复,结合成矿特征分析,建立大庙矿床找矿预测模型,开展找矿预测.在大庙杂岩体内,先后找到了大庙、黑山、马营和罗锅子沟等中—大型矿床,它们都具有典型的岩浆矿床特征,具有岩浆熔离、分异和贯入式成矿特征;系统的野外地质调查和翔实的构造解析表明,大庙杂岩体的侵位受控于EW向隆化-平泉和大庙-红石砬子的断裂构造,杂岩体内NE和NW向两组断裂构造控制了杂岩体内铁-铁磷矿带的发育,NS向断裂则主要为成矿后构造,往往错断了铁矿体.在黑山矿区,野外观测发现含矿苏长岩利用了固结斜长岩中发育的节理,呈脉状贯入,在节理交汇部位铁矿体变大变富;通过节理和矿脉走向的详细测量和吴氏网统计分析,推测大庙矿区成矿期含矿苏长岩的侵位受控于区域上近似NS向的挤压应力作用.根据大庙杂岩体的岩浆侵位时代、岩相-矿体的接触关系、控矿构造和成矿特征,复原了大庙杂岩体的成矿-构造演化过程:最早期区域构造活动控制了斜长岩的侵位,没有发生矿化;苏长岩的侵位,伴随发生了早期的结晶分凝式矿化;块状苏长岩的侵位导致了晚期的熔离-贯入式矿化的形成;成矿期后,大庙杂岩体还经历了多期次的构造变动、抬升和剥蚀.在此基础上,建立了大庙铁矿床的找矿预测模型,并系统分析了大庙矿田不同矿区的深部和外围的找矿潜力,认为黑山和大庙矿区的深部、黑山矿区东侧和北侧、大庙杂岩体的东部边缘可能被中生界覆盖的区域等地段都具有很好的找矿空间,大庙矿区铁矿资源潜力巨大.     

Numerical simulation of erosion and deposition at the Thailand Khao Lak coast during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

A case study was conducted for the Thailand Khao Lak coast using a forward numerical model to understand uncertainties associated with interpreting tsunami deposits and relating them to their tsunami sources. We examined possible effects of the characteristics of tsunami source, multiple waves, sediment supply and local land usages. Numerical results showed that tsunami-deposit extent and thickness could be indicative of the slip value in the source earthquake near the surveyed coastal locations, provided that the sediment supply is unlimited and all the deposits are well preserved. Deposit thickness was found to be largely controlled by the local topography and could be easily modified by backwash flows or subsequent tsunami flows. Between deposit extent and deposit thickness, using deposit extent to interpret the characteristics of a tsunami source is preferable. The changing of land usages between two tsunami events could be another important factor that can significantly alter deposit thickness. There is a need to develop inversion models based on tsunami heights and/or run-up data for studying paleotsunamis.     

从高密度电阻率法数据中抽取电测深曲线进行解释

对于碳酸盐岩地层中的多层岩溶、溶洞洞高较小或顺层岩溶,直接从高密度电阻率拟断面图和反演电阻率断面图上难以将其区分。通过从高密度电法数据中抽取电测深曲线,对一系列测点的电测深视电阻率曲线进行解释,同时结合其视电阻率拟断面图和反演电阻率断面图作出推断,能有效地将上述岩溶进行区分。在湖南省某高速公路跨线桥墩台桩基工程基础勘探中的实践表明,使用该方法可获得较好的地质解释效果。     

吉林省集安地区晶质石墨矿矿床特征及找矿标志

吉林省集安地区是晶质石墨矿的主要产地,晶质石墨矿矿床赋存于集安群荒岔沟组中,层控特征明显,同时也是其直接找矿标志。