Integrating uncertainty: Canyon Creek hyperconcentrated flows of November 1989 and 1990

Canyon Creek drains a 79 km² watershed in northwestern Washington State. Extensive logging occurred from the mid-1960s to 1980s, which resulted in numerous slope instabilities and a several order of magnitude increase in sediment supply to the creek. On November 9, 1989, a hyperconcentrated flow with a peak discharge of 450 m³/s destroyed one house on the fan. A forensic investigation of the event suggests that a temporary landslide dam may have formed at two coalescing earthflows about 4 km above the fan apex. The 1989 hyperconcentrated flow caused significant aggradation on the fan. One year later to the day, a significant flood occurred, which ran over the aggraded fan surface from the 1989 event. This latter event destroyed four more homes mostly through bank erosion and rendered a section of county road impassable. FLDWAV, a flood routing model capable of simulating unsteady flow conditions, was used to model landslide dam breaches for a number of different dam heights at the earthflows. Modeling results were then combined with historic air photograph interpretation, dendrochronology, and eyewitness accounts to construct a frequency–magnitude relationship for hyperconcentrated flows at Canyon Creek. FLDWAV results were combined with a hyperconcentrated flow runout model (FLO-2D) on the fan to estimate maximum flow depth and flow velocity for the design event, a 500-year return period with a predicted peak discharge of 710 m³/s. A large range of mitigation measures were reviewed, but it was concluded that buy-outs would be the most effective risk reduction measure. Property acquisition commenced in 2004.     

Reflection-constrained 2D and 3D non-hyperbolic moveout analysis using particle swarm optimization

The objective of moveout parameter inversion is to derive sets of parameter models that can be used for moveout correction and stacking at each common midpoint location to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of the data and to provide insights into the kinematic characteristics of the data amongst other things. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven user-constrained optimization scheme that utilizes manual picks at a point on each reflector within a common midpoint gather to constrain the search space in which an optimization procedure can search for the optimal parameter sets at each reflection. The picks are used to create boundary curves which can be derived approximately via an optimization technique or analytically via the derivation of an analytical bounds function. In this paper, we derive analytical forms of bounds functions for four different moveout cases. These are normal moveout, non-hyperbolic moveout, azimuthally dependent normal moveout and azimuthally dependent non-hyperbolic moveout. The optimization procedure utilized here to search for the optimal moveout parameters is the particle swarm optimization technique. However, any metaheuristic optimization procedure could be modified to account for the constraints introduced in this paper. The technique is tested on two-layer synthetic models based on three of the four moveout cases discussed in this paper. It is also applied to an elastic forward modelled synthetic model called the HESS model, and finally to real 2D land data from Alaska. The resultant stacks show a marked improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio compared to the raw stacks. The results for the normal moveout, non-hyperbolic moveout and azimuthally dependent normal moveout tests suggest that the method is viable for said models. Results demonstrate that our method offers potential as an alternative to conventional parameter picking and inversion schemes, particularly for some cases where the number of parameters in the moveout approximation is 2 or greater.     

Searching for periodicities in the MACHO light curve of LMC X-2

Using the exceptional long-term monitoring capabilities of the MACHO project, we present here the optical history of LMC X-2 for a continuous 6-yr period. These data were used to investigate the previously claimed periodicities for this source of 8.15 h and 12.54 d: we find upper limits of 0.10 mag and 0.09 mag, respectively.     

The Triassic of Timor: Lithostratigraphy, chronostratigraphy and palaeogeography

The palaeontologically rich and lithologically diverse Triassic successions of Timor provide a key stratigraphic and palaeontological link between northwestern Australia and other terranes of former eastern Gondwana (present-day Southeast Asia). Timor is now located in the zone of collision between the northern margin of the Australian continent and island arc terranes bordering the Eurasian plate, with the Triassic successions exposed in a fold-and-thrust belt and an extensive mélange complex. Three formal lithostratigraphic units have been defined previously within the main Triassic succession in Timor (Niof, Aitutu and Babulu formations), with a fourth, the Wai Luli Formation, primarily Jurassic in age but extending down into the Triassic. The Niof Formation (Anisian to Ladinian, possibly also Early Triassic) is a fine-grained deepwater succession, succeeded conformably by the Aitutu and Babulu formations (Ladinian to Norian/Rhaetian), which were deposited contemporaneously, with the Aitutu Formation continuing locally into the Lower Jurassic. The Aitutu Formation consists of deep shelf limestones interbedded with shales and marls, while the Babulu Formation is a deltaic to turbiditic siliciclastic succession. The Late Triassic to Jurassic Wai Luli Formation is characterised by marine shales and marls.Informal stratigraphic units include the Cephalopod Limestone Facies, a Rosso Ammonitico-type deposit, which contains an extremely rich fossil fauna (particularly ammonoids) and ranges through the entire Triassic; and the Fatu Limestone and Pualaca Facies which consists of shallow to marginal marine carbonates (mud mounds, oolitic limestones and reefs) restricted to the Late Triassic. Facies diversity was low during the Early Triassic and Anisian, but became more pronounced from the Ladinian and continuing through the Late Triassic, probably as a consequence of renewed tectonic extension. Triassic extension was not associated with major volcanism, unlike a previous phase of extension in the Early Permian.The Cablac Limestone Formation, originally defined as a Miocene stratigraphic element, is now recognised to be at least partly Late Triassic–Early Jurassic in age, with lithologies comparable to parts of the Fatu Limestone. The stratigraphy of these shallow marine carbonate sequences is clearly in need of rigorous revision, but it is not yet possible to suggest appropriate redefined formations.     

Interactions between aquatic vegetation,hydraulics and fine sediment: A case study in the Halswell River,New Zealand

This paper contributes a field study of suspended sediment transport through aquatic vegetation. The study was run over a 3 month period which was selected to coincide with scheduled weed cutting activities. This provided the opportunity to obtain data points with no vegetation cover, as well as to investigate the effects of weed cutting on Suspended Sediment Concentrations (SSC), particle size distributions and river hydraulics. Aquatic vegetation cover was quantified through remote sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and biomass estimated from ground truth sampling. SSC was highly dependent on aquatic vegetation abundance, and the distance upstream that had been cleared of aquatic vegetation. The data indicates that fine sediment was being trapped and stored by aquatic vegetation, then likely remobilised after vegetation removal. Investigation of suspended sediment spatial dynamics illustrated changes in particle size distribution due to preferential settling of coarse particles within aquatic vegetation, for example D50 decreased from 36.08 μm to 15.64 μm after suspended sediment travelled 304.2 m downstream and passed ~3700 kg of aquatic vegetation biomass. Hydraulic resistance in the study reach (parameterized by Manning's n) dropped by over 70% following vegetation cutting. Prior to cutting hydraulic resistance was discharge dependent (likely due to vegetation pronating at higher flows), while post cutting hydraulic resistance was approximately invariant of discharge. Aerial surveying captured interesting changes in aquatic vegetation cover prior to vegetation cutting, where some very dense regions of aquatic vegetation were naturally removed (without any high flow events) leaving behind unvegetated riverbed and fine sediment. The weed cutting boat had a lower impact on SSC than was originally expected, which indicates that it may offer a less damaging solution to aquatic vegetation removal in rivers than some other approaches such as mechanical excavation. This paper contributes valuable field data (which are generally scarce) on the research topic of flow-vegetation-sediment interactions, to supplement laboratory and numerical studies.     

Classification of hydrological regimes of northern floodplain basins (Peace–Athabasca Delta,Canada) from analysis of stable isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) and water chemistry

We used stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) and water chemistry to characterize the water balance and hydrolimnological relationships of 57 shallow aquatic basins in the Peace‐Athabasca Delta (PAD), northern Alberta, Canada, based on sampling at the end of the 2000 thaw season. Evaporation‐to‐inflow ratios (E/I) were estimated using an isotope mass‐balance model tailored to accommodate basin‐specific input water compositions, which provided an effective, first‐order, quantitative framework for identifying water balances and associated limnological characteristics spanning three main, previously identified drainage types. Open‐drainage basins (E/I < 0·4; n = 5), characterized by low alkalinity, low concentrations of nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and ions, and high minerogenic turbidity, include large, shallow basins that dominate the interior of the PAD and experience frequent or continuous river channel connection. Closed‐drainage basins (E/I ≥ 1·0; n = 16), in contrast, possess high alkalinity and high concentrations of nitrogen, DOC, and ions, and low minerogenic turbidity, and are located primarily in the relict and infrequently flooded landscape of the northern Peace sector of the delta. Several basins fall into the restricted‐drainage category (0·4 # E/I < 1·0; n = 26) with intermediate water chemistries and are predominant in the southern Athabasca sector, which is subject to active fluviodeltaic processes, including intermittent flooding from riverbank overflow. Integration of isotopic and limnological data also revealed evidence for a new fourth drainage type, mainly located near the large open‐drainage lakes that occupy the central portion of the delta but within the Athabasca sector (n = 10). These basins were very shallow (<50 cm deep) at the time of sampling and isotopically depleted, corresponding to E/I characteristic of restricted‐ and open‐drainage conditions. However, they are limnologically similar to closed‐drainage basins except for higher conductivity and higher concentrations of Ca²⁺ and Na⁺, and lower concentrations of SiO₂ and chlorophyll c. These distinct features are due to the overriding influence of recent summer rainfall on the basin water balance and chemistry. The close relationships evident between water balances and limnological conditions suggest that past and future changes in hydrology are likely to be coupled with marked alterations in water chemistry and, hence, the ecology of aquatic environments in the PAD. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-mass X-ray binary SXP18.3 undergoes the longest type II outburst ever seen in the Small Magellanic Cloud

On 2006 August 30, SXP18.3 a high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) with an 18.3 s pulse period was observed by Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer ( RXTE ). The source was seen continuously for the following 36 weeks. This is the longest type II outburst ever seen from a HMXB in the SMC. During the outburst, SXP18.3 was located from serendipitous XMM–Newton observations. The identification of the optical counterpart has allowed SXP18.3 to be classified as a Be/X-ray binary. This paper will report on the analysis of the optical and weekly RXTE X-ray data that span the last 10 yr. The extreme length of this outburst has for the first time enabled us to perform an extensive study of the pulse timing of a SMC Be/X-ray binary. We present a possible full orbital solution from the pulse timing data. An orbital period of 17.79 d is proposed from the analysis of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) III light curve placing SXP18.3 on the boundary of known sources in the Corbet diagram.     

Climate-driven changes in water level: a decadal scale multi-proxy study recording the 8.2-ka event and ecosystem responses in Lake Sarup (Denmark)

A two-stage change in lake level during the 8.2-ka event was identified in Lake Sarup, Denmark (55°N), using a multiproxy approach on precise radiocarbon wiggle-matched annually laminated sediments deposited 8740–8060 cal. yr BP. Changes in δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O indicated closed lake hydrology driven by precipitation. The isotopic, sedimentary and plant macrofossil records suggested that the lake level started to decrease around 8400 cal. yr BP, the decrease accelerating during 8350–8260 before an abrupt increase during 8260–8210. This pattern shows that the climate anomaly started ~150 years before the onset of the 8.2-ka cooling event registered in Greenland ice cores, but was synchronous with hydrologic change in the North American Lake Agassiz drainage. The lake level decrease was accompanied by a higher accumulation rate of inorganic matter and lower accumulation rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions throughout the period. The lake did not return to its pre-8.2-ka event status during the period of analysis, but remained more productive for centuries after the climatic anomaly as judged from the pigment accumulation and assemblage composition. The change to more eutrophic conditions may have been triggered by erosion of marginal deposits. Together, these data confirm the chronology of hydrologic changes and suggest, for the first time, that lake levels exhibited both a decline and an increase in rapid succession in response to the 8.2-ka event in southern Scandinavia.     

The significance of vivianite in archaeological settings

Vivianite is a bluish mineral sometimes encountered in archaeological deposits. It is notable for its tendency to change color from white or grayish to blue on exposure to air. Vivianite requires specific conditions for its formation—sources of iron, phosphate, and water, as well as low levels of oxygen and sulfide. Microbial activity is also thought to play a part in vivianite formation. The majority of archaeological texts do not discuss vivianite to any great degree, preventing a more detailed interpretation of site conditions and features. Vivianite was found in 25 exhumed burials from the North Brisbane Burial Ground, Queensland, Australia. Research indicated that bone or tissue samples for DNA analysis are best taken from areas distant from vivianite encrustations and that presence of vivianite has implications for artifact conservation. Vivianite at the North Brisbane Burial Grounds helped protect some skeletal and dental elements, preserved the impressions of metal coffin lacing, and also corroborated the oral history of temporary waterlogging and acted as a measure of pollution levels across the site. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.