Hydro-climatological changes in the Colorado River Basin over a century

This study evaluates changes in streamflow, temperature and precipitation over a time span of 105 years (1906–2010) in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Monthly precipitation and temperature data for 29 climate divisions, and streamflow data for 29 naturalized gauges were analyzed. Two variations of the Mann-Kendall test, considering lag-1 auto correlation and long-term persistence, and the Pettitt test were employed to assess trends and shifts, respectively. Results indicated that streamflow increased during the winter–spring months and decreased during the summer– autumn period. Decreasing trends in winter precipitation were identified over snow-dominated regions in the upper basin. Significant increases in temperature were detected over several months. Major shifts were noticed in 1964, 1968 and in the late 1920s. Increasing temperature while decreasing streamflow and precipitation were noticed after major shifts in the 1930s, and these shifts coincided with coupled phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch     

Relocation of hypocenters from DOMERAPI and BMKG networks: a preliminary result from DOMERAPI project

Merapi volcano located in central Java, Indonesia, is one of the most active stratovolcanoes in the world. Many Earth scientists have conducted studies on this volcano using various methods. The geological features around Merapi are very attractive to be investigated because they have been formed by a complex tectonic process and volcanic activities since tens of millions of years ago. The southern mountain range, Kendeng basin and Opak active fault located around the study area resulted from these processes. DOMERAPI project was conducted to understand deep magma sources of the Merapi volcano comprehensively. The DOMERAPI network was running from October 2013 to mid-April 2015 by deploying 46 broad-band seismometers around the volcano. Several steps, i.e., earthquake event identification, arrival time picking of P and S waves, hypocenter determination and hypocenter relocation, were carried out in this study. We used Geiger’s method (Geiger 1912) for hypocenter determination and double-difference method for hypocenter relocation. The relocation result will be used to carry out seismic tomographic imaging of structures beneath the Merapi volcano and its surroundings. For the hypocenter determination, the DOMERAPI data were processed simultaneously with those from the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) seismic network in order to minimize the azimuthal gap. We found that the majority of earthquakes occurred outside the DOMERAPI network. There are 464 and 399 earthquakes obtained before and after hypocenter relocation, respectively. The hypocenter relocation result successfully detects some tectonic features, such as a nearly vertical cluster of events indicating a subduction-related backthrust to the south of central Java and a cluster of events to the east of Opak fault suggesting that the fault has an eastward dip.     

River suspended sediment load prediction based on river discharge information: application of newly developed data mining models

ABSTRACT

Suspended sediment load (SSL) is one of the essential hydrological processes that affects river engineering sustainability. Sediment has a major influence on the operation of dams and reservoir capacity. This investigation is aimed at exploring a new version of machine learning models (i.e. data mining), including M5P, attribute selected classifier (AS M5P), M5Rule (M5R), and K Star (KS) models for SSL prediction at the Trenton meteorological station on the Delaware River, USA. Different input scenarios were examined based on the river flow discharge and sediment load database. The performance of the applied data mining models was evaluated using various statistical metrics and graphical presentation. Among the applied data mining models, the M5P model gave a superior prediction result. The current and one-day lead time river flow and sediment load were the influential predictors for one-day-ahead SSL prediction. Overall, the applied data mining models achieved excellent predictions of the SSL process.     

Analysis of attenuation and dispersion of propagating wave due to the coexistence of three fluid phases in the pore volume

In exploration geophysics, the efforts to extract subsurface information from wave characteristics exceedingly depend on the construction of suitable rock physics model. Analysis of different rock physics models reveals that the strength and magnitude of attenuation and dispersion of propagating wave exceedingly depend on wave-induced fluid flow at multiple scales. In current work, a comprehensive analysis of wave attenuation and velocity dispersion is carried out at broad frequency range. Our methodology is based on Biot's poroelastic relations, by which variations in wave characteristics associated with wave-induced fluid flow due to the coexistence of three fluid phases in the pore volume is estimated. In contrast to the results of previous research, our results indicate the occurrence of two-time pore pressure relaxation phenomenon at the interface between fluids of disparate nature, that is, different bulk modulus, viscosity and density. Also, the obtained results are compatible with numerical results for the same 1D model which are accounted using Biot's poroelastic and quasi-static equation in frequency domain. Moreover, the effects of change in saturation of three-phase fluids were also computed which is the key task for geophysicist. The outcomes of our research reveal that pore pressure relaxation phenomenon significantly depends on the saturation of distinct fluids and the order of saturating fluids. It is also concluded that the change in the saturation of three-phase fluid significantly influences the characteristics of the seismic wave. The analysis of obtained results indicates that our proposed approach is a useful tool for quantification, identification and discrimination of different fluid phases. Moreover, our proposed approach improves the accuracy to predict dispersive behaviour of propagating wave at sub-seismic and seismic frequencies.     

Geometric Dependence of the Scalar Transfer Efficiency over Rough Surfaces

We performed a series of wind-tunnel experiments under neutral conditions in order to create a comprehensive database of scalar transfer coefficients for street surfaces using regular block arrays representing an urban environment. The objective is to clarify the geometric dependence of scalar transfer phenomena on rough surfaces. In addition, the datasets we have obtained are necessary to improve the modelling of scalar transfer used for computational simulations of urban environments; further, we can validate the results obtained by numerical simulations. We estimated the scalar transfer coefficients using the salinity method. The various configurations of the block arrays were designed to be similar to those used in a previous experiment to determine the total drag force acting on arrays. Our results are summarized as follows: first, the results for cubical arrays showed that the transfer coefficients for staggered and square layouts varied with the roughness packing density. The results for the staggered layout showed the possibility that the mixing effect of air can be enhanced for the mid-range values of the packing density. Secondly, the transfer coefficients for arrays with blocks of non-uniform heights were smaller than those for arrays with blocks of uniform height under conditions of low packing density; however, as the packing density increased, the opposite tendency was observed. Thirdly, the randomness of rotation angles of the blocks in the array led to increasing values of the transfer coefficients under sparse packing density conditions when compared with those for cubical arrays.     

The first electric field pulse of cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning discharges

In this study, the first electric field pulse of cloud and cloud-to-ground discharges were analyzed and compared with other pulses of cloud discharges. Thirty eight cloud discharges and 101 cloud-to-ground discharges have been studied in this analysis. Pulses in cloud discharges were classified as ‘small’, ‘medium’ and ‘large’, depending upon the value of their relative amplitude with respect to that of the average amplitude of the five largest pulses in the flash. We found that parameters, such as pulse duration, rise time, zero crossing time and full-width at half-maximum (FWHMs) of the first pulse of cloud and cloud-to-ground discharges are similar to small pulses that appear in the later stage of cloud discharges. Hence, we suggest that the mechanism of the first pulse of cloud and cloud-to-ground discharges and the mechanism of pulses at the later stage of cloud discharges could be the same.     

Application of singular value decomposition (SVD) and semi-discrete decomposition (SDD) techniques in clustering of geochemical data: an environmental study in central Iran

Common multivariate clustering techniques are ineffective in identifying subtle patterns of correlation, and clustering of variables or samples within complex geochemical datasets. This study compares the combination of singular value decomposition (SVD) and semi discrete decomposition (SDD), with that of hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), to examine patterns within a multielement soil geochemical dataset from an agricultural area in the vicinity of Pb–Zn mining operations in central Iran. SVD was used to both identify patterns of correlation between variables and samples and to “denoise” the data, and SDD to simultaneously cluster the samples and variables. The results reveal various spatial associations of mining waste-associated metals As, Ba, Pb and Zn, and within the remaining elements whose distribution is largely controlled by the major oxides. SVD–SDD was found to be superior to HCA, in its ability to detect subtle clusters in soil geochemistry indicative of mine-related contamination in the study area.     

Bivariate drought frequency analysis using the copula method

Droughts are major natural hazards with significant environmental and economic impacts. In this study, two-dimensional copulas were applied to the analysis of the meteorological drought characteristics of the Sharafkhaneh gauge station, located in the northwest of Iran. Two major drought characteristics, duration and severity, as defined by the standardized precipitation index, were abstracted from observed drought events. Since drought duration and severity exhibited a significant correlation and since they were modeled using different distributions, copulas were used to construct the joint distribution function of the drought characteristics. The parameter of copulas was estimated using the method of the Inference Function for Margins. Several copulas were tested in order to determine the best data fit. According to the error analysis and the tail dependence coefficient, the Galambos copula provided the best fit for the observed drought data. Some bivariate probabilistic properties of droughts, based on the derived copula-based joint distribution, were also investigated. These probabilistic properties can provide useful information for water resource planning and management.     

Reproducing fling-step and forward directivity at near source site using of multi-objective particle swarm optimization and multi taper

This paper presents a technique to reproduce compatible seismogran3s involving permanent displacen3ent effects at sites close to the fault source. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to minimize the differences between the response spectra and multi-tapered power spectral delsilies corresponding to the recorded and simulated wavelbrms. The multi-taper method is used to reduce the spectral leakage that is inherent in the Fourier rams formed form ofwavelbrms, ieading to a reduction of variance in power spectral amplitudes, thus permitting the calibration of the two sets of data. The technique is implemented using the 1998-Fandoqa （lran） earthquake data and the results are compared with the actual observed data. Additionally, a comparison is made with a SAR interfcrometry study leading to fair agreement with the reported dislocation along the main fault. The simulation procedure and results are discussed and assessed concluding that, although the technique may be associated with uncertainties, it can still be used to reproduce wavelbnns at near source sites that include permanent dislocation, and can be used for seismic pertbrmance evaluation of structures in the region under study.